{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,9]],"date-time":"2026-03-09T16:27:44Z","timestamp":1773073664065,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":44,"publisher":"Emerald","issue":"9","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,14]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Purpose<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The COVID-19 pandemic and the onset of the conflict in Ukraine led to a sustained downturn in tourist arrivals (TA) in Russia. This paper aims to explore the influence of geopolitical risk (GPR) and other indices on TA over 1995\u20132023.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Design\/methodology\/approach<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We employ a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model to analyze the effects, capturing both the positive and negative shocks of these variables on TA.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Findings<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Our research demonstrates that the NARDL model is more effective in elucidating the complex dynamics between macroeconomic factors and TA. Both an increase and a decrease in GPR lead to an increase in TA. A 1% negative shock in GPR leads to an increase in TA by 1.68%, whereas a 1% positive shock in GPR also leads to an increase in TA by 0.5%. In other words, despite the increase in GPR, the number of tourists coming to Russia increases by 0.5% for every 1% increase in that risk. Several explanations could account for this phenomenon: (1) risk-tolerant tourists: some tourists might be less sensitive to GPR or they might find the associated risks acceptable; (2) economic incentives: increased risk might lead to a depreciation in the local currency and lower costs, making travel to Russia more affordable for international tourists; (3) niche tourism: some tourists might be attracted to destinations experiencing turmoil, either for the thrill or to gain firsthand experience of the situation; (4) lagged effects: there might be a time lag between the increase in risk and the actual impact on tourist behavior, meaning the effects might be observed differently over a longer period.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Originality\/value<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Our study, employing the NARDL model and utilizing a dataset spanning from 1995 to 2023, investigates the impact of GPR, gross domestic product (GDP), real effective exchange rate (REER) and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on TA in Russia. This research is unique because the dataset was compiled by the authors. The results show a complex relationship between GPR and TA, indicating that factors influencing TA can be multifaceted and not always intuitive.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1108\/k-01-2024-0265","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,24]],"date-time":"2024-04-24T21:58:29Z","timestamp":1713995909000},"page":"5080-5105","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["An analysis of the geopolitical and economics influence on tourist arrivals in Russia using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model"],"prefix":"10.1108","volume":"54","author":[{"given":"Irina Alexandra","family":"Georgescu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Cibernetics Statistics and Economic Informatics, Bucharest University of Economic Studies Department of Economic Informatics and Cybernetics, , ,","place":["Bucharest, Romania"]}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9005-5181","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Simona Vasilica","family":"Oprea","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Cibernetics Statistics and Economic Informatics, Bucharest University of Economic Studies Department of Economic Informatics and Cybernetics, , ,","place":["Bucharest, Romania"]}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0961-352X","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Adela","family":"B\u00e2ra","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Cibernetics Statistics and Economic Informatics, Bucharest University of Economic Studies Department of Economic Informatics and Cybernetics, , ,","place":["Bucharest, Romania"]}]}],"member":"140","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,25]]},"reference":[{"issue":"1","key":"2026030906374563100_ref001","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"49","DOI":"10.22440\/wjae.9.1.3","article-title":"Interrelationships between tourist arrivals, exchange rate, inflation, and economic growth: empirical evidence for T\u00fcrkiye","volume":"9","author":"Akarsu","year":"2023","journal-title":"World Journal of Applied Economics"},{"issue":"1","key":"2026030906374563100_ref002","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"22","DOI":"10.1007\/s42943-023-00077-z","article-title":"Determining the (A)symmetric role of business\u2013consumer confidence in outward\u2013inward tourism in Russia: a competitiveness perspective","volume":"18","author":"Alola","year":"2023","journal-title":"International Journal of Global Business and Competitiveness"},{"issue":"3","key":"2026030906374563100_ref003","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"197","DOI":"10.1080\/07474939608800353","article-title":"A test for independence based on the correlation dimension","volume":"15","author":"Broock","year":"1996","journal-title":"Econometric Reviews"},{"issue":"2","key":"2026030906374563100_ref004","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"149","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2517-6161.1975.tb01532.x","article-title":"Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relationships over time","volume":"37","author":"Brown","year":"1975","journal-title":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological)"},{"issue":"4","key":"2026030906374563100_ref005","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1194","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.20191823","article-title":"Measuring geopolitical risk","volume":"112","author":"Caldara","year":"2022","journal-title":"American Economic Review"},{"key":"2026030906374563100_ref006","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1080\/02508281.2022.2026615","article-title":"Analysis of the resilience of the Turkey tourism industry to exogenous shocks: new evidence from a NARDL model","author":"Charfeddine","year":"2022","journal-title":"Tourism Recreation Research"},{"issue":"45","key":"2026030906374563100_ref007","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"63739","DOI":"10.1007\/s11356-020-11094-3","article-title":"Do renewable energy and natural gas consumption mitigate CO2 emissions in the USA? 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