{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,31]],"date-time":"2026-03-31T05:43:02Z","timestamp":1774935782810,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":44,"publisher":"Emerald","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,31]],"date-time":"2023-10-31T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1698710400000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.emerald.com\/insight\/site-policies"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["K"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,7]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec><jats:title content-type=\"abstract-subheading\">Purpose<\/jats:title><jats:p>Considering the frequency of extreme events, enhancing the global financial system's stability has become crucial. This study aims to investigate the contagion effects of extreme risk events in the international commodity market on China's financial industry. It highlights the significance of comprehending the origins, severity and potential impacts of extreme risks within China's financial market.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title content-type=\"abstract-subheading\">Design\/methodology\/approach<\/jats:title><jats:p>This study uses the tail-event driven network risk (TENET) model to construct a tail risk spillover network between China's financial market and the international commodity market. Combining with the characteristics of the network, this study employs an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to examine the factors influencing systemic risks in China's financial market and to explore the early identification of indicators for systemic risks in China's financial market.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title content-type=\"abstract-subheading\">Findings<\/jats:title><jats:p>The research reveals a strong tail risk contagion effect between China's financial market and the international commodity market, with a more pronounced impact from the latter to the former. Industrial raw materials, food, metals, oils, livestock and textiles notably influence China's currency market. The systemic risk in China's financial market is driven by systemic risks in the international commodity market and network centrality and can be accurately predicted with the ARDL-error correction model (ECM) model. Based on these, Chinese regulatory authorities can establish a monitoring and early warning mechanism to promptly identify contagion signs, issue timely warnings and adjust regulatory measures.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title content-type=\"abstract-subheading\">Originality\/value<\/jats:title><jats:p>This study provides new insights into predicting systemic risk in China's financial market by revealing the tail risk spillover network structure between China's financial and international commodity markets.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1108\/k-06-2023-1001","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,31]],"date-time":"2023-10-31T10:27:23Z","timestamp":1698748043000},"page":"807-831","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":6,"title":["Research on the tail risk contagion in the international commodity market on the China's financial market: based on a network perspective"],"prefix":"10.1108","volume":"54","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1915-593X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Xin","family":"Liao","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0008-5904-440X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Wen","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"140","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,31]]},"reference":[{"issue":"2","key":"key2025010612195321000_ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"564","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.20130456","article-title":"Systemic risk and stability in financial networks","volume":"105","year":"2015","journal-title":"American Economic Review"},{"key":"key2025010612195321000_ref002","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.resourpol.2020.101898","article-title":"How COVID-19 drives connectedness among commodity and financial markets: evidence from TVP-VAR and causality-in-quantiles techniques","volume":"70","year":"2021","journal-title":"Resources Policy"},{"key":"key2025010612195321000_ref003","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"217","DOI":"10.1016\/j.eneco.2017.06.023","article-title":"Contagion, volatility persistence and volatility spill-overs: the case of energy markets during the European financial crisis","volume":"66","year":"2017","journal-title":"Energy Economics"},{"key":"key2025010612195321000_ref004","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"499","DOI":"10.1016\/j.eneco.2018.01.023","article-title":"Oil volatility, oil and gas firms and portfolio diversification","volume":"70","year":"2018","journal-title":"Energy Economics"},{"issue":"1","key":"key2025010612195321000_ref005","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"109","DOI":"10.1093\/rof\/rfw026","article-title":"Where the risks lie: a survey on systemic risk","volume":"21","year":"2017","journal-title":"Review of Finance"},{"key":"key2025010612195321000_ref043","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/j.irfa.2020.101646","article-title":"Return connectedness across asset classes around the COVID-19 outbreak","volume":"73","year":"2021","journal-title":"International Review of Financial Analysis"},{"key":"key2025010612195321000_ref006","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"38","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jimonfin.2013.08.004","article-title":"Speculators, commodities and cross-market linkages","volume":"42","year":"2014","journal-title":"Journal of International Money and Finance"},{"key":"key2025010612195321000_ref045","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"140","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.2512","article-title":"Modeling and forecasting large realized covariance matrices and portfolio choice","volume":"32","year":"2017","journal-title":"Journal of Applied Econometrics"},{"issue":"6","key":"key2025010612195321000_ref007","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1415","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jbankfin.2010.10.022","article-title":"Asset market linkages: evidence from financial, commodity and real estate assets","volume":"35","year":"2011","journal-title":"Journal of Banking and Finance"},{"key":"key2025010612195321000_ref008","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.3560361","article-title":"Safe haven or risky hazard? 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