{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,27]],"date-time":"2025-09-27T10:28:16Z","timestamp":1758968896302,"version":"3.41.2"},"reference-count":47,"publisher":"Emerald","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,7,27]],"date-time":"2021-07-27T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1627344000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.emerald.com\/insight\/site-policies"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["LHT"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,9,13]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec><jats:title content-type=\"abstract-subheading\">Purpose<\/jats:title><jats:p>The purpose of this paper is to develop a simple deterministic model that quantifies previously adopted preventive measures driven by the trend of the reported number of deaths in both Italy and India. In addition, the authors forecast the spread based on some selected quantified preventive measures. The optimal exiting policy is derived using the inverse dynamics of the model. Furthermore, the model developed by the authors is dependent on the daily number of deaths; as such, it is sensitive to the death rate but remains insensitive to trends in deaths.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title content-type=\"abstract-subheading\">Design\/methodology\/approach<\/jats:title><jats:p>In the wake of COVID-19, policymakers and health professionals realized the limitations and shortcomings of current healthcare systems and pandemic response policies. The need to revise global and national pandemic response mechanisms has been thrust into the public spotlight. To this end, the authors devise an approach to identify the most suitable governmental non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) policies, previously adopted in a community, country or region that serve as the foundation for most pandemic strategies.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title content-type=\"abstract-subheading\">Findings<\/jats:title><jats:p>Leveraging Italy, the authors compare the aftermath by considering three scenarios: (a) recently adopted preventive measures, (b) strictest preventive measures previously adopted, and (c) the optimal exiting policy. In comparison to the second scenario, the authors estimate about twice the number of recoveries and deaths within five months under the first scenario and about 80 times more under the optimal scenario. Whereas in India, the authors applied one scenario of recently adopted preventative measures to showcase the rapid turnaround of their model. According to the new timeline, almost 90% of all deaths in India could have been prevented if the policies implemented in April 2021 were put in place three months prior, i.e. in January 2021.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title content-type=\"abstract-subheading\">Originality\/value<\/jats:title><jats:p>The novelty of the proposed approach is in the use of inverse dynamics of a simple deterministic model that allows capturing the trend of contact rate as a function of adopted NPIs, regardless of pandemic type.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1108\/lht-03-2021-0095","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,7,24]],"date-time":"2021-07-24T03:12:01Z","timestamp":1627096321000},"page":"873-887","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":15,"title":["Setting the boundaries of COVID-19 lockdown relaxation measures"],"prefix":"10.1108","volume":"39","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0124-8457","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Samer","family":"Saab","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2084-8856","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mohammad","family":"Al Abbas","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0310-2243","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Rola Najib","family":"Samaha","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Rayana","family":"Jaafar","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Khaled Kamal","family":"Saab","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7634-274X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Samer Said","family":"Saab Jr","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"140","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,7,27]]},"reference":[{"year":"2020","key":"key2021091107363371000_ref001","article-title":"First Italian dies of coronavirus as outbreak flares in north"},{"key":"key2021091107363371000_ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"38","DOI":"10.1016\/j.amsu.2020.06.010","article-title":"Is the lockdown important to prevent the COVID-9 pandemic? Effects on psychology, environment and economy-perspective","volume":"56","year":"2020","journal-title":"Annals of Medicine and Surgery"},{"key":"key2021091107363371000_ref003","article-title":"Coronavirus: Italy extends emergency measures nationwide","author":"BBC News","year":"2020","journal-title":"BBC News"},{"key":"key2021091107363371000_ref004","article-title":"Coronavirus: Italy's PM outlines lockdown easing measures","author":"BBC News","year":"2020","journal-title":"BBC News"},{"key":"key2021091107363371000_ref005","article-title":"Coronavirus: Italy death toll tops 30,000, highest in EU","author":"BBC News","year":"2020","journal-title":"BBC News"},{"key":"key2021091107363371000_ref006","article-title":"Covid: Delhi announces lockdown as India's cases surge","author":"BBC News","year":"2021","journal-title":"BBC News"},{"key":"key2021091107363371000_ref007","article-title":"Modelling lockdown and exit strategies for COVID-19 in Singapore","volume":"1","year":"2020","journal-title":"The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific"},{"key":"key2021091107363371000_ref008","first-page":"4","article-title":"The exit strategy: how countries around the world are preparing for life after Covid-19","year":"2020","journal-title":"The Guardian"},{"journal-title":"La Repubblica","article-title":"Coronavirus, in dieci comuni lombardi: 50 mila persone costrette a restare in casa. Quarantena all'ospedale milanese di Baggio","year":"2020","key":"key2021091107363371000_ref009"},{"issue":"7806","key":"key2021091107363371000_ref500","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"8","DOI":"10.1038\/d41586-020-01311-x","article-title":"Coronavirus: share lessons on lifting lockdowns","volume":"581","author":"Editorial","year":"2020","journal-title":"Nature"},{"journal-title":"CNBC","article-title":"Italy closes bars, restaurants and most shops as coronavirus death toll jumps 30%","year":"2020","key":"key2021091107363371000_ref010"},{"issue":"21","key":"key2021091107363371000_ref011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2049","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMsb2005114","article-title":"Fair allocation of scarce medical resources in the time of Covid-19","volume":"382","year":"2020","journal-title":"New England Journal of Medicine"},{"key":"key2021091107363371000_ref012","unstructured":"Ferguson, N.M., Laydon, D., Nedjati-Gilani, G., Imai, N., Ainslie, K., Baguelin, M., Bhatia, S., Boonyasiri, A., Cucunuba Perez, Z., Cuomo-Dannenburg, G., Dighe, A., Dorigatti, I., Fu, H., Gaythorpe, K., Green, W., Hamlet, A., Hinsley, W., Okell, L., Van Elsland, S., Thompson, H., Verity R., Volz, E., Wang, H., Wang, Y., Walker, P., Walters, C., Winskill, P., Whittaker, C., Donnelly, C., Riley, S. and Ghani, A. (2020), \u201cImpact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand\u201d, Imperial College London. doi: 10.25561\/77482."},{"issue":"6491","key":"key2021091107363371000_ref013","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.abb6936","article-title":"Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing","volume":"368","year":"2020","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"key2021091107363371000_ref014","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1101\/2020.04.14.20063750","article-title":"Modeling exit strategies from COVID-19 lockdown with a focus on antibody tests: a preprint","year":"2020","journal-title":"medRxiv"},{"issue":"581","key":"key2021091107363371000_ref015","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"15","DOI":"10.1038\/d41586-020-01248-1","article-title":"Whose coronavirus strategy worked best? Scientists hunt most effective policies","year":"2020","journal-title":"Nature"},{"journal-title":"The Guardian","article-title":"Italy orders closure of all schools and universities due to coronavirus","year":"2020","key":"key2021091107363371000_ref016"},{"issue":"24","key":"key2021091107363371000_ref017","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2302","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa2006100","article-title":"Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the Icelandic population","volume":"382","year":"2020","journal-title":"New England Journal of Medicine"},{"issue":"12","key":"key2021091107363371000_ref502","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1303","DOI":"10.1038\/s41562-020-01009-0","article-title":"Ranking the effectiveness of worldwide COVID-19 government interventions","volume":"4","year":"2020","journal-title":"Nature Human Behaviour"},{"key":"key2021091107363371000_ref018","article-title":"Superspreader events like weddings behind new Covid surge: govt panel | latest news India","author":"Hindustan times","year":"2021","journal-title":"Hindustan Times"},{"article-title":"ICTP's COVID-19 response","year":"2020","author":"Italian Government","key":"key2021091107363371000_ref019"},{"key":"key2021091107363371000_ref020","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"165","DOI":"10.1016\/j.amsu.2020.09.046","article-title":"COVID-19 exit strategy: transitioning towards a new normal","volume":"59","year":"2020","journal-title":"Annals of Medicine and Surgery"},{"issue":"3","key":"key2021091107363371000_ref021","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"226","DOI":"10.7326\/M20-1565","article-title":"Caution warranted: using the institute for health metrics and evaluation model for predicting the course of the COVID-19 pandemic","volume":"173","year":"2020","journal-title":"Annals of Internal Medicine"},{"journal-title":"Forbes","article-title":"Italy banned flights from China before America - it didn't work","year":"2020","key":"key2021091107363371000_ref022"},{"issue":"6493","key":"key2021091107363371000_ref023","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"860","DOI":"10.1126\/science.abb5793","article-title":"Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period","volume":"368","year":"2020","journal-title":"Science"},{"year":"2020","key":"key2021091107363371000_ref024","article-title":"Italy closes all nonessential factories to halt spread of coronavirus"},{"issue":"6490","key":"key2021091107363371000_ref025","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"489","DOI":"10.1126\/science.abb3221","article-title":"Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)","volume":"368","year":"2020","journal-title":"Science"},{"journal-title":"BBC News","article-title":"India Covid crisis: did election rallies help spread virus?","year":"2021","key":"key2021091107363371000_ref026"},{"key":"key2021091107363371000_ref027","first-page":"2","article-title":"The extraordinary decisions facing Italian doctors","year":"2020","journal-title":"The Atlantic"},{"issue":"3","key":"key2021091107363371000_ref028","first-page":"319","article-title":"COVID-19 vaccines and treatments nationalism: challenges for low-income countries and the attainment of the SDGs","volume":"16","year":"2020","journal-title":"Global Public Health"},{"key":"key2021091107363371000_ref029","first-page":"3","article-title":"Iceland's \u2018test everyone\u2019 goal has skeptics, but it may Be working","year":"2020","journal-title":"The New York Times"},{"key":"key2021091107363371000_ref030","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"100748","DOI":"10.1016\/j.nmni.2020.100748","article-title":"Re-positive coronavirus disease 2019 PCR test: could it be a reinfection?","volume":"37","year":"2020","journal-title":"New Microbes and New Infections"},{"issue":"351","key":"key2021091107363371000_ref031","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41577-020-0316-3","article-title":"Will we see protection or reinfection in COVID-19?","volume":"20","year":"2020","journal-title":"Nature Reviews Immunology"},{"issue":"7","key":"key2021091107363371000_ref032","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"776","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(20)30244-9","article-title":"The many estimates of the COVID-19 case fatality rate","volume":"20","year":"2020","journal-title":"The Lancet Infectious Diseases"},{"issue":"20","key":"key2021091107363371000_ref033","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1873","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMp2005492","article-title":"Facing Covid-19 in Italy \u2014 ethics, logistics, and therapeutics on the epidemic's front line","volume":"382","year":"2020","journal-title":"New England Journal of Medicine"},{"key":"key2021091107363371000_ref034","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1007","DOI":"10.1080\/13669877.2020.1758755","article-title":"Mismanagement of Covid-19: lessons learned from Italy","volume":"23","year":"2020","journal-title":"Journal of Risk Research"},{"article-title":"Coronavirus \u2018Great Lockdown\u2019 to shrink global economy by 3% in 2020: IMF","year":"2020","author":"Reuters","key":"key2021091107363371000_ref035"},{"key":"key2021091107363371000_ref036","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2020.10.059","article-title":"The public's role in COVID-19 vaccination: human-centered recommendations to enhance pandemic vaccine awareness, access, and acceptance in the United States","year":"2020","journal-title":"Vaccine"},{"issue":"1","key":"key2021091107363371000_ref037","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"112","DOI":"10.25082\/AHB.2020.01.002","article-title":"Climate variability and seasonal weather related to COVID-19","volume":"3","year":"2020","journal-title":"Advances in Health and Behavior"},{"key":"key2021091107363371000_ref038","article-title":"Covid, de luca closes schools and universities in Campania until 30\/10 | Azzolina: \u2018very serious decision\u2019","author":"TGCOM","year":"2020","journal-title":"TGCOM"},{"key":"key2021091107363371000_ref039","article-title":"Coronavirus India lockdown day 238 updates | November 19, 2020","author":"The Hindu Net Desk","year":"2020","journal-title":"The Hindu"},{"key":"key2021091107363371000_ref040","article-title":"State after state shut down special Covid centres just before second wave | India News","author":"The Indian Express","year":"2021","journal-title":"The Indian Express"},{"issue":"10286","key":"key2021091107363371000_ref041","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1683","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(21)01052-7","article-title":"India's COVID-19 emergency","volume":"397","author":"The Lancet","year":"2021","journal-title":"Lancet (London, England)"},{"journal-title":"Hindi News","article-title":"Unlock 5.0 Guideline: cinema halls to educational institutes know what relaxations to expect","year":"2020","key":"key2021091107363371000_ref042"},{"issue":"11","key":"key2021091107363371000_ref043","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1061","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2020.1585","article-title":"Clinical characteristics of 138 hospitalized patients with 2019 novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia in wuhan, China","volume":"323","year":"2020","journal-title":"Journal of the American Medical Association"},{"issue":"4","key":"key2021091107363371000_ref044","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"441","DOI":"10.1002\/jmv.25689","article-title":"Updated understanding of the outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Wuhan, China","volume":"92","year":"2020","journal-title":"Journal of Medical Virology"},{"article-title":"Considerations for implementing and adjusting public health and social measures in the context of COVID-19","year":"2020","author":"World Health Organization","key":"key2021091107363371000_ref045"}],"container-title":["Library Hi Tech"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.emerald.com\/insight\/content\/doi\/10.1108\/LHT-03-2021-0095\/full\/xml","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.emerald.com\/insight\/content\/doi\/10.1108\/LHT-03-2021-0095\/full\/html","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,24]],"date-time":"2025-07-24T22:14:15Z","timestamp":1753395255000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"http:\/\/www.emerald.com\/lht\/article\/39\/3\/873-887\/454024"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,7,27]]},"references-count":47,"journal-issue":{"issue":"3","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,7,27]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,9,13]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1108\/LHT-03-2021-0095"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1108\/lht-03-2021-0095","relation":{},"ISSN":["0737-8831"],"issn-type":[{"type":"print","value":"0737-8831"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,7,27]]}}}