{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,21]],"date-time":"2026-05-21T12:19:45Z","timestamp":1779365985470,"version":"3.53.0"},"reference-count":68,"publisher":"Emerald","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,10,28]],"date-time":"2021-10-28T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1635379200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.emerald.com\/insight\/site-policies"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["OIR"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2022,8,16]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title content-type=\"abstract-subheading\">Purpose<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The study aims to expand on the concept of an early warning system (EWS) by introducing weak-signal detection, human-in-the-loop (HIL) verification and response tuning as integral parts of an EWS's design.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title content-type=\"abstract-subheading\">Design\/methodology\/approach<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The authors bibliographically highlight the evolution of EWS over the last 30+ years, discuss instances of EWSs in various types of organizations and industries and highlight limitations of current systems.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title content-type=\"abstract-subheading\">Findings<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Proposed system to be used in the transforming of weak signals to early warnings and associated weak\/strong responses.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title content-type=\"abstract-subheading\">Originality\/value<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The authors contribute to existing literature by presenting (1) novel approaches to dealing with some of the well-known issues associated with contemporary EWS and (2) an event-agnostic heuristic for dealing with weak signals.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title content-type=\"abstract-subheading\">Peer review<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      The peer review history for this article is available at:\n                      <jats:ext-link xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" ext-link-type=\"uri\" xlink:href=\"https:\/\/publons.com\/publon\/10.1108\/OIR-11-2020-0513\">https:\/\/publons.com\/publon\/10.1108\/OIR-11-2020-0513<\/jats:ext-link>\n                      .\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1108\/oir-11-2020-0513","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,10,26]],"date-time":"2021-10-26T04:47:21Z","timestamp":1635223641000},"page":"904-919","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":7,"title":["Toward a typology of weak-signal early alert systems: functional early warning systems in the post-COVID age"],"prefix":"10.1108","volume":"46","author":[{"given":"Jan","family":"\u010cern\u00fd","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7613-9290","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Martin","family":"Potan\u010dok","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0782-2125","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Elias","family":"Castro Hernandez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"140","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,10,28]]},"reference":[{"issue":"279","key":"key2022081600074001200_ref001","first-page":"613","article-title":"Early warning system for exchange rate crises in Mexico","volume":"70","year":"2003","journal-title":"Trimestre Economico"},{"issue":"3","key":"key2022081600074001200_ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"317","DOI":"10.1007\/s13753-019-00231-3","article-title":"Early warning systems: lost in translation or late by definition? A FORIN approach","volume":"10","year":"2019","journal-title":"International Journal of Disaster Risk Science"},{"issue":"5","key":"key2022081600074001200_ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"587","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jpolmod.2004.01.008","article-title":"Misleading indicators? The Argentinean currency crisis","volume":"26","year":"2004","journal-title":"Journal of Policy Modeling"},{"issue":"2","key":"key2022081600074001200_ref004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"21","DOI":"10.2307\/41164635","article-title":"Managing strategic surprise by response to weak signals","volume":"18","year":"1975","journal-title":"California Management Review"},{"issue":"2","key":"key2022081600074001200_ref005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"131","DOI":"10.1002\/smj.4250010204","article-title":"Strategic issue management","volume":"1","year":"1980","journal-title":"Strategic Management Journal"},{"key":"key2022081600074001200_ref006","first-page":"449","article-title":"Introducing hydro-climatic extremes and human impacts in Bolivia, Paraguay and Uruguay","year":"2016","journal-title":"Climate Change and Health"},{"issue":"04","key":"key2022081600074001200_ref007","first-page":"335","article-title":"Exploring information and communications technology adoption in enterprises and its impact on innovation performance of European countries","volume":"62","year":"2014","journal-title":"Ekonomick\u00fd \u010casopis"},{"issue":"1845","key":"key2022081600074001200_ref008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2167","DOI":"10.1098\/rsta.2006.1819","article-title":"Global early warning systems for natural hazards: systematic and people-centred","volume":"364","year":"2006","journal-title":"Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society a: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences"},{"issue":"1","key":"key2022081600074001200_ref009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"98","DOI":"10.1007\/s10393-014-0988-x","article-title":"Early detection of emerging zoonotic diseases with animal morbidity and mortality monitoring","volume":"12","year":"2015","journal-title":"EcoHealth"},{"issue":"3","key":"key2022081600074001200_ref010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"347","DOI":"10.18267\/j.pep.428","article-title":"Development of an early warning system for evaluating the credit portfolio's quality. A case study on Romania","volume":"21","year":"2012","journal-title":"Prague Economic Papers"},{"issue":"5","key":"key2022081600074001200_ref011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"454","DOI":"10.1016\/j.futures.2009.11.030","article-title":"Monitoring the future. Building an early warning system for the Dutch Ministry of Justice","volume":"42","year":"2010","journal-title":"Futures"},{"issue":"6","key":"key2022081600074001200_ref012","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1006204","article-title":"Anticipating epidemic transitions with imperfect data","volume":"14","year":"2018","journal-title":"PLoS Computational Biology"},{"issue":"6","key":"key2022081600074001200_ref013","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"953","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jimonfin.2006.07.007","article-title":"Towards a new early warning system of financial crises","volume":"25","year":"2006","journal-title":"Journal of International Money and Finance"},{"issue":"1","key":"key2022081600074001200_ref014","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"111","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jpolmod.2007.03.007","article-title":"Low probability, high impact: policy making and extreme events","volume":"30","year":"2008","journal-title":"Journal of Policy Modeling"},{"issue":"2","key":"key2022081600074001200_ref015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"528","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ejor.2004.03.023","article-title":"Prediction of commercial bank failure via multivariate statistical analysis of financial structures: the Turkish case","volume":"166","year":"2005","journal-title":"European Journal of Operational Research"},{"key":"key2022081600074001200_ref016","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"6","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2020.00250","article-title":"Status and challenges of public health emergency management in China related to COVID-19","volume":"8","year":"2020","journal-title":"Frontiers in Public Health"},{"issue":"1","key":"key2022081600074001200_ref017","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"522","DOI":"10.1002\/jmv.26194","article-title":"Dengue and COVID-19, overlapping epidemics? An analysis from Colombia","volume":"93","year":"2020","journal-title":"Journal of Medical Virology"},{"key":"key2022081600074001200_ref018","volume-title":"(Ne)uv\u011b\u0159iteln\u00e1 Knihovna Se Neboj\u00ed Zm\u011bny","year":"2019"},{"issue":"3","key":"key2022081600074001200_ref019","first-page":"81","article-title":"Pr\u016fzkum vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed informa\u010dn\u00edch zdroj\u016f pro Competitive Intelligence v \u010desk\u00fdch firm\u00e1ch","volume":"22","year":"2015","journal-title":"Syst\u00e9mov\u00e1 Integrace"},{"key":"key2022081600074001200_ref020","first-page":"389","article-title":"Pre-spillover prevention of emerging zoonotic diseases: what are the targets and what are the tools?","volume":"315","year":"2007","journal-title":"Wildlife and Emerging Zoonotic Diseases: The Biology, Circumstances and Consequences of Cross-Species Transmission. Current Topics in Microbiology and Immunology"},{"key":"key2022081600074001200_ref021","volume-title":"Inova\u010dn\u00ed Aktivity Podnik\u016f v \u010cesk\u00e9 republice v Letech 2010-2012","author":"\u010cS\u00da","year":"2014"},{"issue":"4","key":"key2022081600074001200_ref022","first-page":"5","article-title":"Statistical models for monitoring the likelihood of credit portfolio impairment","volume":"43","year":"2009","journal-title":"Econ Comput Econ Cybern Stud Res"},{"issue":"5","key":"key2022081600074001200_ref023","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"315","DOI":"10.1016\/j.omega.2009.09.007","article-title":"Financial crises and bank failures: a review of prediction methods","volume":"38","year":"2010","journal-title":"Omega"},{"issue":"9","key":"key2022081600074001200_ref024","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"772","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pt.2018.07.004","article-title":"Human mobility and the global spread of infectious diseases: a focus on air travel","volume":"34","year":"2018","journal-title":"Trends in Parasitology"},{"key":"key2022081600074001200_ref025","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/j.futures.2018.11.004","article-title":"Using a conceptual system for weak signals classification to detect threats and opportunities from web","volume":"107","year":"2019","journal-title":"Futures"},{"issue":"1","key":"key2022081600074001200_ref026","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"236","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ejor.2014.08.016","article-title":"Prediction of financial distress: an empirical study of listed Chinese companies using data mining","volume":"241","year":"2015","journal-title":"European Journal of Operational Research"},{"key":"key2022081600074001200_ref027","volume-title":"Early Warning: Using Competitive Intelligence to Anticipate Market Shifts, Control Risk, and Create Powerful Strategies","year":"2003"},{"issue":"1","key":"key2022081600074001200_ref028","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"117","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.financial.050808.114316","article-title":"Modeling financial crises and sovereign risks","volume":"1","year":"2009","journal-title":"Annual Review of Financial Economics"},{"key":"key2022081600074001200_ref029","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"123","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jbankfin.2015.03.003","article-title":"Interpreting financial market crashes as earthquakes: a new early warning system for medium term crashes","volume":"56","year":"2015","journal-title":"Journal of Banking and Finance"},{"key":"key2022081600074001200_ref030","volume-title":"Interpretations of Calamity: from the Viewpoint of Human Ecology","year":"1983"},{"key":"key2022081600074001200_ref031","volume-title":"A Weak Signals Learning in Organizational Futures A-365 A-365","year":"2010"},{"issue":"1","key":"key2022081600074001200_ref032","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"200","DOI":"10.1007\/s10393-016-1100-5","article-title":"Lessons from the ebola outbreak: action items for emerging infectious disease preparedness and response","volume":"13","year":"2016","journal-title":"EcoHealth"},{"key":"key2022081600074001200_ref033","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/asi.4630280305","article-title":"A very early warning system for the rapid identification and transfer of new technology","volume":"28","year":"1977","journal-title":"Journal of the American Society for Information Science"},{"issue":"3","key":"key2022081600074001200_ref034","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"317","DOI":"10.1002\/ijfe.314","article-title":"The contribution of domestic and external factors to emerging market currency crises: an early warning systems approach","volume":"12","year":"2007","journal-title":"International Journal of Finance and Economics"},{"issue":"1","key":"key2022081600074001200_ref035","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"315","DOI":"10.1186\/s13643-019-1211-5","article-title":"Early warning system models and components in emergency and disaster: a systematic literature review protocol","volume":"8","year":"2019","journal-title":"Systematic Reviews"},{"key":"key2022081600074001200_ref036","article-title":"Early warning system in business, finance, and economics: bibliometric and topic analysis","volume":"10","year":"2018","journal-title":"International Journal of Engineering Business Management"},{"key":"key2022081600074001200_ref037","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2020.141711","article-title":"SARS-CoV-2 has been circulating in northern Italy since December 2019: evidence from environmental monitoring","volume":"750","year":"2021","journal-title":"Science of the Total Environment"},{"issue":"11","key":"key2022081600074001200_ref038","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3800","DOI":"10.1128\/AEM.07972-11","article-title":"Feasibility of quantitative environmental surveillance in poliovirus eradication strategies","volume":"78","year":"2012","journal-title":"Applied and Environmental Microbiology"},{"key":"key2022081600074001200_ref039","article-title":"Concerted international efforts for advancing multi-hazard early warning systems","volume-title":"Advancing Culture of Living with Landslides. WLF 2017","year":"2017"},{"issue":"2","key":"key2022081600074001200_ref040","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"588","DOI":"10.1016\/j.compedu.2009.09.008","article-title":"Mining LMS data to develop an \u2018early warning system\u2019 for educators: a proof of concept","volume":"54","year":"2010","journal-title":"Computers and Education"},{"key":"key2022081600074001200_ref041","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/j.coesh.2020.04.006","article-title":"The potential of wastewater-based epidemiology as surveillance and early warning of infectious disease outbreaks","volume":"17","year":"2020","journal-title":"Current Opinion in Environmental Science and Health"},{"key":"key2022081600074001200_ref042","first-page":"50","article-title":"Early warning systems","volume-title":"Management Accounting","year":"1987"},{"issue":"2","key":"key2022081600074001200_ref043","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"487","DOI":"10.1007\/s10694-018-0753-8","article-title":"Should we leave now? Behavioral factors in evacuation under wildfire threat","volume":"55","year":"2019","journal-title":"Fire Technology"},{"issue":"15","key":"key2022081600074001200_ref044","first-page":"1","article-title":"Preliminary study of Sars-Cov-2 occurrence in wastewater in the Czech Republic","volume":"17","year":"2020","journal-title":"International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health"},{"issue":"2","key":"key2022081600074001200_ref045","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"238","DOI":"10.2307\/3867660","article-title":"Safety from currency crashes","volume":"47","year":"2000","journal-title":"IMF Staff Papers"},{"issue":"14","key":"key2022081600074001200_ref046","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"349","DOI":"10.1136\/vr.g5968","article-title":"Developing an early warning system for bovine respiratory disease","volume":"175","year":"2014","journal-title":"Veterinary Record"},{"issue":"3","key":"key2022081600074001200_ref047","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"383","DOI":"10.1108\/DPM-07-2014-0140","article-title":"Flood warning in a Swedish local risk management context","volume":"24","year":"2015","journal-title":"Disaster Prevention and Management"},{"issue":"8","key":"key2022081600074001200_ref048","first-page":"1501","article-title":"SARS, MERS and the sunspot cycle","volume":"113","year":"2017","journal-title":"Current Science"},{"key":"key2022081600074001200_ref049","article-title":"An early warning system for strategic planning","volume":"17","year":"1984","journal-title":"Long Range Planning"},{"key":"key2022081600074001200_ref050","first-page":"16","article-title":"Impact of corporate social responsibility on OTC medicines consumers","volume":"35","year":"2014","journal-title":"The Amfiteatru Economic"},{"key":"key2022081600074001200_ref051","volume-title":"Competitive Intelligence and Senior Management: the Best Solution to where to Place the Office of Competitive Intelligence Is on a Par with Functions that Report Directly to the Board","year":"2007"},{"issue":"2","key":"key2022081600074001200_ref052","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4","DOI":"10.2478\/v10305-012-0017-x","article-title":"Invited article: adaptability","volume":"2","year":"2011","journal-title":"Business Systems Research Journal"},{"issue":"3","key":"key2022081600074001200_ref053","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1554","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ejor.2006.01.045","article-title":"Rough sets and the role of the monetary policy in financial stability (macroeconomic problem) and the prediction of insolvency in insurance sector (microeconomic problem)","volume":"181","year":"2007","journal-title":"European Journal of Operational Research"},{"issue":"4","key":"key2022081600074001200_ref054","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"22","DOI":"10.1108\/14636680510611813","article-title":"Pitfalls in implementing a strategic early warning system","volume":"7","year":"2005","journal-title":"Foresight"},{"key":"key2022081600074001200_ref055","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"13","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envint.2020.105689","article-title":"Future perspectives of wastewater-based epidemiology: monitoring infectious disease spread and resistance to the community level","volume":"139","year":"2020","journal-title":"Environment International"},{"key":"key2022081600074001200_ref056","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2020.140719","article-title":"Wastewater surveillance for covid-19: an african perspective","volume":"743","year":"2020","journal-title":"Science of the Total Environment"},{"issue":"2","key":"key2022081600074001200_ref057","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"657","DOI":"10.20506\/rst.36.2.2683","article-title":"International health threats and global early warning and response mechanisms","volume":"36","year":"2017","journal-title":"OIE Revue Scientifique et Technique"},{"key":"key2022081600074001200_ref058","volume-title":"UNISDR Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction 2009","author":"UNISDR","year":"2009"},{"key":"key2022081600074001200_ref059","volume-title":"Koncepce rozvoje Knihoven v \u010cesk\u00e9 republice Na L\u00e9ta 2021-2027 S v\u00fdhledem Do roku 2030","author":"\u00dast\u0159edn\u00ed knihovnick\u00e1 rada \u010cR","year":"2020"},{"key":"key2022081600074001200_ref060","first-page":"49","article-title":"Dying for information? A report on the effects of information overload in the UK and worldwide","year":"1997","journal-title":"British Library Research and Innovation Report"},{"issue":"1","key":"key2022081600074001200_ref061","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"31","DOI":"10.1504\/IJCIS.2010.029575","article-title":"Towards a typology of integrated functional early warning systems","volume":"6","year":"2010","journal-title":"International Journal of Critical Infrastructures"},{"key":"key2022081600074001200_ref062","volume-title":"Why Don't They Leave: Does Social Cohesion Affect Hurricane Evacuation Decisions?","year":"2020"},{"key":"key2022081600074001200_ref063","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"101476","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijdrr.2020.101476","article-title":"Why don't bushfire warnings work as intended? Responses to official warnings during bushfires in New South Wales, Australia","volume":"45","year":"2020","journal-title":"International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction"},{"key":"key2022081600074001200_ref064","first-page":"19","article-title":"Developing early warning systems: a checklist","year":"2006"},{"issue":"s2","key":"key2022081600074001200_ref065","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3","DOI":"10.1556\/032.65.2015.s2.2","article-title":"Study on early warning of enterprise financial distress\u2014based on partial least-squares logistic regression","volume":"65","year":"2015","journal-title":"Acta Oeconomica"},{"issue":"10","key":"key2022081600074001200_ref066","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2173","DOI":"10.1002\/jmv.26022","article-title":"A retrospective study on the epidemiological characteristics and establishment of early warning system of severe COVID-19 patients","volume":"92","year":"2020","journal-title":"Journal of Medical Virology"},{"issue":"2","key":"key2022081600074001200_ref067","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"32","DOI":"10.4067\/S0718-18762015000200004","article-title":"Public relations crisis and social media: an investigation into extant and prospective consumers' perceptions through the lens of attribution theory","volume":"10","year":"2015","journal-title":"Journal of Theoretical and Applied Electronic Commerce Research"},{"key":"key2022081600074001200_ref068","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envres.2020.109926","article-title":"Association between NO2 cumulative exposure and influenza prevalence in mountainous regions: a case study from southwest China","volume":"189","year":"2020","journal-title":"Environmental Research"}],"container-title":["Online Information Review"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.emerald.com\/insight\/content\/doi\/10.1108\/OIR-11-2020-0513\/full\/xml","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.emerald.com\/insight\/content\/doi\/10.1108\/OIR-11-2020-0513\/full\/html","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,24]],"date-time":"2025-07-24T22:44:17Z","timestamp":1753397057000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"http:\/\/www.emerald.com\/oir\/article\/46\/5\/904-919\/315057"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,10,28]]},"references-count":68,"journal-issue":{"issue":"5","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,10,28]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2022,8,16]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1108\/OIR-11-2020-0513"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1108\/oir-11-2020-0513","relation":{"has-review":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1108\/OIR-11-2020-0513\/v1\/decision1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1108\/OIR-11-2020-0513\/v2\/response1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1108\/OIR-11-2020-0513\/v2\/review1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1108\/OIR-11-2020-0513\/v1\/review1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1108\/OIR-11-2020-0513\/v2\/decision1","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["1468-4527"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1468-4527","type":"print"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,10,28]]}}}