{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,30]],"date-time":"2025-10-30T07:08:07Z","timestamp":1761808087734,"version":"3.41.2"},"reference-count":50,"publisher":"Emerald","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2016,9,12]],"date-time":"2016-09-12T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1473638400000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.emerald.com\/insight\/site-policies"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["FS"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2016,9,12]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n<jats:title content-type=\"abstract-subheading\">Purpose<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>Drawing on a EU-funded research project on urbanisation in China and Europe (URBACHINA), the purpose of this inquiry is to explore the potential of foresight \u2013 through visionary scenarios and related participatory processes \u2013 in promoting learning and sustainable futures in China\u2019s centrally planned context. Our research explores the use of backcasting, of Donella Meadows\u2019 \u201clevers\u201d and Paul Raskin\u2019s \u201cproximate-ultimate drivers\u201d and of archetypal worldviews to further our understanding of how we think about the future, and of the tension between transition scenarios and transformative, paradigmatic or deep change.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec>\n<jats:title content-type=\"abstract-subheading\">Design\/methodology\/approach<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>A review of recent foresight studies and literature provides an overview of the latest approaches: in particular the methods, scope, process, level of participation, themes discussed and wild cards considered. Building on this, the inquiry designs and implements a participatory, normative and qualitative scenario building to explore sustainable urban futures for China, adapting the elements of Joseph Voros\u2019 basic foresight process to include a total of nine steps, with five workshops, two international surveys, an adapted backcasting step and internal consistency mechanisms.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec>\n<jats:title content-type=\"abstract-subheading\">Findings<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>The combination of a participatory iterative process with normative approaches to envisioning, helped question assumptions and deeply ingrained development models, as well as the narrow space for \u201calternatives\u201d resulting from China\u2019s centralised, top-down planning and decision-making. The experience confirms the power of scenario\/storyline building in helping reflect and question strategic policy choices and enrich urban policy debates. The process successfully proposed a number of steps that ensured triangulation of the envisioning outcomes and additional learning also through backcasting. Finally, the research shows a clear link between the development of scenarios space, the debate on transition and transformative futures and archetypal worldviews, which were shown to be stable even after decades.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec>\n<jats:title content-type=\"abstract-subheading\">Originality\/value<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>The URBACHINA approach to the specific challenge of sustainable urbanisation in China applies a strong normative component combined to more locally accepted exploratory methods and introduces a participatory approach to all key stages of scenario building. This represents an innovative contribution to the country\u2019s foresight practice and the results help Chinese decision makers to reflect on the wider sustainability implications of their urban strategy. The inquiry deepens our understanding of the use of proximate and ultimate drivers of change and of the tension between transition and transformation pathways to our future.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1108\/fs-06-2015-0033","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2016,9,9]],"date-time":"2016-09-09T08:46:08Z","timestamp":1473410768000},"page":"509-534","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":11,"title":["Exploring participatory scenario and storyline building for sustainable urban futures \u2013 the case of China in 2050"],"prefix":"10.1108","volume":"18","author":[{"given":"Olivia","family":"Bina","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Andrea","family":"Ricci","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"140","reference":[{"year":"2015","key":"key2020121303225508200_ref001","article-title":"Mobile transitions: exploring synergies for urban sustainability research"},{"issue":"2","key":"key2020121303225508200_ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"215","DOI":"10.1016\/j.techfore.2008.04.003","article-title":"Sustainability transitions in developing Asia: are alternative development pathways likely?","volume":"76","year":"2009","journal-title":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change"},{"issue":"2","key":"key2020121303225508200_ref003","first-page":"123","article-title":"Jim Dator\u2019s alternative futures and the path to IAF\u2019s aspirational futures","volume":"14","year":"2009","journal-title":"Journal of Futures Studies"},{"issue":"6","key":"key2020121303225508200_ref004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1023","DOI":"10.1068\/c1310j","article-title":"The green economy and sustainable development: an uneasy balance?","volume":"31","year":"2013","journal-title":"Environment and Planning C-Government and Policy"},{"key":"key2020121303225508200_ref006","unstructured":"Bina, O., Balula, L., Ricci, A. and Ma, Z. (Eds) (2013), \u201cState of the Art Report: Sustainability dimension of urban infrastructure and services\u201d, URBACHINA Project Report no. D4.1, Instituto de Ci\u00eancias Sociais (ICS), Institute of Studies for the Integration of Systems (ISIS), and People\u2019s University (RENDA), Lisbon, 28 February."},{"key":"key2020121303225508200_ref005","unstructured":"Bina, O. and Ricci, A. (2015), \u201cBuilding Scenarios for Sustainable Urbanisation: balancing \u201cCan\u201d, \u201cNeed\u201d, and \u201cWant\u201d, Urbanisation and Global environmental change\u201d, Ugec Viewpoints, 30 July, available at: https:\/\/ugecviewpoints.wordpress.com\/2015\/07\/30\/building-scenarios-for-sustainable-urbanisation-balancing-can-need-and-want\/ (accessed 30 July 2015)."},{"key":"key2020121303225508200_ref007","unstructured":"Bina, O., Ricci, A. and Giuffr\u00e9, G. (2015), \u201cPolicy mechanisms for sustainability: exploring scenario and storyline building techniques for sustainable urbanisation \u2013 the case of China in 2050\u201d, URBACHINA Policy Brief (Project Report no. D4.2), Instituto de Ci\u00eancias Sociais (ICS-ULisboa) and Institute of Studies for the Integration of Systems (ISIS), Rome and Lisbon, 28 February, available at: www.urbachina.eu\/index.php\/en\/dissemination\/policy-briefs (accessed 2 March 2015)."},{"key":"key2020121303225508200_ref008","unstructured":"Bramley, E.V. 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