{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,23]],"date-time":"2025-12-23T09:59:44Z","timestamp":1766483984536,"version":"3.48.0"},"reference-count":46,"publisher":"Emerald","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Purpose<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The purpose of this paper is to assess the risk of post-earthquake fire (PEF) in the historic city centre of Aveiro, Portugal, by integrating seismic vulnerability analysis, fire risk assessment and GIS-based spatial modelling. Through building surveys and scenario-based analysis, the study identifies ignition risks, fire spread potential and road blockage hazards following a seismic event. It further evaluates the impact of mitigation strategies, such as automatic gas shut-off valves, to enhance urban resilience. The findings aim to support emergency planning and inform public policies for disaster risk reduction in historic urban areas.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Design\/methodology\/approach<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The study combines field surveys, photographic documentation and GIS mapping to assess PEF risk in Aveiro's historic centre. Seismic vulnerability was evaluated using index-based methods for masonry and reinforced concrete buildings. Fire risk was quantified using a modified ARICA fire risk index method, while PEF scenarios were developed by correlating damage levels with ignition risks. Fire spread was modelled using an elliptical propagation model considering wind and urban density. Road blockage risk was assessed based on building collapse potential. Mitigation measures, including automatic gas shut-off valves, were simulated to evaluate their impact on fire ignition and spread.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Findings<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The study found that 51% of buildings in Aveiro's historic centre face moderate to very high PEF risk under EMS-98 intensity VIII, with masonry structures being significantly more vulnerable than reinforced concrete ones. Fire spread analysis showed rapid escalation, affecting 2% of buildings within 15\u00a0min and 19% within 30\u00a0min. Additionally, 23% of roads were classified as high risk for blockage, potentially hindering emergency response. Implementation of automatic gas shut-off valves reduced ignition risk in some buildings but had limited overall impact due to broad risk classification intervals. Key vulnerable zones were identified for targeted mitigation and planning.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Originality\/value<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>This study presents a novel, integrated approach to PEF risk assessment at the urban scale, combining seismic vulnerability, fire risk, fire spread and road blockage analyses within a GIS framework. Applied to Aveiro's historic centre, it uniquely incorporates real building data and explores the impact of mitigation strategies such as automatic gas shut-off valves. The methodology's adaptability to other European historic urban areas enhances its relevance. By identifying high-risk zones and infrastructure weaknesses, the study provides valuable insights for urban planners, policymakers and emergency services aiming to improve resilience and reduce cascading disaster risks in historic city centres.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1108\/jsfe-05-2025-0018","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,23]],"date-time":"2025-12-23T09:58:52Z","timestamp":1766483932000},"page":"1-26","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Post-earthquake fire risk assessment at urban scale in Aveiro, Portugal"],"prefix":"10.1108","author":[{"given":"Hugo","family":"Vitorino","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Aveiro CERIS, Departamento de Engenharia Civil, , ,","place":["Aveiro, Portugal"]}]},{"given":"Ana","family":"Esteves","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Aveiro CERIS, Departamento de Engenharia Civil, , ,","place":["Aveiro, Portugal"]}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6454-7927","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Tiago Miguel","family":"Ferreira","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"CERIS, Departamento de Engenharia Civil, Instituto Superior Tecnico, Universidade de Lisboa , ,","place":["Lisboa, Portugal"]}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1373-4540","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Hugo","family":"Rodrigues","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Aveiro CERIS, Departamento de Engenharia Civil, , ,","place":["Aveiro, Portugal"]}]}],"member":"140","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,25]]},"reference":[{"issue":"2","key":"2025122304584372400_ref001","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"378","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.12455","article-title":"Statistical modeling of fire occurrence using data from the T\u014dhoku, Japan earthquake and tsunami","volume":"36","author":"Anderson","year":"2016","journal-title":"Risk Analysis"},{"key":"2025122304584372400_ref002","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijdrr.2019.101432","article-title":"Seismic damage scenarios for the Historic City Center of Leiria, Portugal: analysis of the impact of different seismic retrofitting strategies on emergency planning","volume":"44","author":"Anglade","year":"2020","journal-title":"International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction"},{"key":"2025122304584372400_ref003","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijdrr.2021.102287","article-title":"Post-earthquake fire risk assessment of historic urban areas: a scenario-based analysis applied to the Historic City Centre of Leiria, Portugal","volume":"60","author":"Baquedano Juli\u00e1","year":"2021","journal-title":"International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction"},{"key":"2025122304584372400_ref004","first-page":"1","article-title":"Vulnerabilit\u00e0 e previsione di danno a scala territoriale secondo una metodologia macrosismica coerente con la scala EMS-98","author":"Bernardini","year":"2007"},{"issue":"6","key":"2025122304584372400_ref005","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2607","DOI":"10.1007\/s10518-020-00795-2","article-title":"Assessment and mitigation of seismic risk at the urban scale: an application to the historic city center of Leiria, Portugal","volume":"18","author":"Blyth","year":"2020","journal-title":"Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering"},{"key":"2025122304584372400_ref048","volume-title":"The Impact of Post-Earthquake Fire On the Urban Environment (Fire Engineering Research Report 98\/1)","author":"Botting","year":"1998"},{"key":"2025122304584372400_ref007","first-page":"1","article-title":"Building design for fire after earthquake","author":"Botting","year":"2000"},{"issue":"2","key":"2025122304584372400_ref008","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"303","DOI":"10.1111\/j.03613666.2009.01130.x","article-title":"Urban disaster recovery: a measurement framework and its application to the 1995 Kobe earthquake","volume":"34","author":"Chang","year":"2010"},{"issue":"3","key":"2025122304584372400_ref009","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"363","DOI":"10.1177\/030913330102500304","article-title":"The 1755 Lisbon earthquake","volume":"25","author":"Chester","year":"2001","journal-title":"Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment"},{"issue":"4","key":"2025122304584372400_ref010","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2193","DOI":"10.1177\/87552930231194563","article-title":"Multi-index assessment of road blockage risk due to seismic event-induced building debris","volume":"39","author":"Chu","year":"2023","journal-title":"Earthquake Spectra"},{"key":"2025122304584372400_ref011","article-title":"Fire following earthquake","author":"Eidinger","year":"2004"},{"key":"2025122304584372400_ref012","volume-title":"Flood Risk in a Climate Change Context - Exploring Current and Emerging Drivers","author":"Estrella Nu\u00f1ez","year":"2022"},{"key":"2025122304584372400_ref047","volume-title":"Hazus Earthquake Model: User Guidance (Version 4.2)","author":"FEMA","year":"2020"},{"key":"2025122304584372400_ref014","volume-title":"Aveiro No Estado Novo - A Cidade Idealizada versus a Cidade Operacionalizada","author":"Ferreira","year":"2003"},{"issue":"5","key":"2025122304584372400_ref015","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.3390\/su12051996","article-title":"Seismic vulnerability assessment of existing reinforced concrete buildings in urban centers","volume":"12","author":"Ferreira","year":"2020","journal-title":"Sustainability"},{"key":"2025122304584372400_ref016","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"99","DOI":"10.14195\/1647-7723_18_8","article-title":"Avalia\u00e7\u00e3o do risco de inc\u00eandio em centros urbanos antigos parte I - Aplica\u00e7\u00e3o do m\u00e9todo de ARICA ao centro hist\u00f3rico do Funchal","volume":"18","author":"Figueira","year":"2011","journal-title":"Territorium"},{"key":"2025122304584372400_ref017","volume-title":"European Macroseismic Scale 1998 (EMS98)","author":"Gr\u00fcnthal","year":"1998"},{"issue":"3","key":"2025122304584372400_ref018","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"935","DOI":"10.1007\/s10694-018-00813-5","article-title":"Comparative analysis of post-earthquake fires in Japan from 1995 to 2017","volume":"55","author":"Himoto","year":"2019","journal-title":"Fire Technology"},{"key":"2025122304584372400_ref019","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"704","DOI":"10.3801\/IAFSS.FSS.11-704","article-title":"Analysis of ignitions following 2011 tohoku earthquake using kawasumi model","volume":"11","author":"Himoto","year":"2014","journal-title":"Fire Safety Science"},{"key":"2025122304584372400_ref020","unstructured":"Instituto Portugu\u00eas do Mar e da Atmosfera\n           (n.d.), \u201cPortal do clima - altera\u00e7\u00f5es Clim\u00e1ticas em Portugal\u201d,available at:\u00a0http:\/\/portaldoclima.pt\/pt\/ (accessed\u00a07 May 2024)."},{"issue":"4","key":"2025122304584372400_ref021","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"287","DOI":"10.1620\/tjem.229.287","article-title":"The great east-Japan earthquake and devastating tsunami: an update and lessons from the past great earthquakes in Japan since 1923","volume":"229","author":"Ishigaki","year":"2013","journal-title":"Tohoku Journal of Experimental Medicine"},{"issue":"3","key":"2025122304584372400_ref022","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1371","DOI":"10.1007\/s11069-018-3255-6","article-title":"Seismic damage assessment based on regional synthetic ground motion dataset: a case study for Erzincan, Turkey","volume":"92","author":"Karimzadeh","year":"2018","journal-title":"Natural Hazards"},{"issue":"2","key":"2025122304584372400_ref023","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"158","DOI":"10.1108\/IJDRBE-02-2015-0005","article-title":"Overview of fire following earthquake: historical events and community responses","volume":"8","author":"Khorasani","year":"2017","journal-title":"International Journal of Disaster Resilience in the Built Environment"},{"issue":"2","key":"2025122304584372400_ref024","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"811","DOI":"10.1007\/s11069-013-0607-0","article-title":"Impact of the 11 March 2011, Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami on the chemical industry","volume":"67","author":"Krausmann","year":"2013","journal-title":"Natural Hazards"},{"key":"2025122304584372400_ref025","unstructured":"Little Firefighter\n           (2024), \u201cEarthquake and seismic gas shutoff valves\u201d, available at:\u00a0https:\/\/www.littlefirefighter.com\/gas-shutoff-valves\/ (accessed\u00a031 August 2024)."},{"issue":"20","key":"2025122304584372400_ref026","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"9075","DOI":"10.3390\/su16209075","article-title":"Assessing the cascading post-earthquake fire-risk scenario in urban centres","volume":"16","author":"Mascheri","year":"2024","journal-title":"Sustainability"},{"issue":"426","key":"2025122304584372400_ref027","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"739","DOI":"10.1016\/j.culher.2016.01.011","article-title":"Urban fire risk: evaluation and emergency planning","volume":"20","author":"Miguel","year":"2016"},{"issue":"7","key":"2025122304584372400_ref028","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"803","DOI":"10.1007\/s11027-011-9297-7","article-title":"Damage from the Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami - a quick report","volume":"16","author":"Mimura","year":"2011","journal-title":"Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change"},{"key":"2025122304584372400_ref029","first-page":"5983","article-title":"Analysis of post-earthquake fire hazard","author":"Mohammadi","year":"1992"},{"key":"2025122304584372400_ref030","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijdrr.2023.104124","article-title":"Post-earthquake fire ignition model uncertainty in regional probabilistic shaking\u2013fire cascading multi-hazard risk assessment: a study of earthquakes in Japan","volume":"98","author":"Nishino","year":"2023","journal-title":"International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction"},{"issue":"3","key":"2025122304584372400_ref031","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3165","DOI":"10.1007\/s11069-022-05802-0","article-title":"Probabilistic urban cascading multi-hazard risk assessment methodology for ground shaking and post-earthquake fires","volume":"116","author":"Nishino","year":"2023","journal-title":"Natural Hazards"},{"key":"2025122304584372400_ref032","unstructured":"Nonprofit Home Inspections\n           (2023), \u201cAutomatic gas shut off valves\u201d, available at:\u00a0https:\/\/nonprofithomeinspections.org\/automatic-gas-shut-off-valves\/ (accessed\u00a031 August 2024)."},{"key":"2025122304584372400_ref033","unstructured":"Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy\n           (2022), \u201cAutomatic gas shutoff valves\u201d, available at:\u00a0https:\/\/basc.pnnl.gov\/resource-guides\/automatic-gas-shutoff-valves#edit-group-description (accessed\u00a031 August 2024)."},{"key":"2025122304584372400_ref034","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"971","DOI":"10.3801\/iafss.fss.1-971","article-title":"Fire following earthquake","volume":"1","author":"Scawthorn","year":"1986","journal-title":"Fire Safety Science"},{"issue":"3","key":"2025122304584372400_ref035","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"675","DOI":"10.1193\/1.1585286","article-title":"The morgan hill earthquake of april 24, 1984\u2014fire-related aspects","volume":"1","author":"Scawthorn","year":"1985","journal-title":"Earthquake Spectra"},{"issue":"SPEC. ISS. 2","key":"2025122304584372400_ref036","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"S135","DOI":"10.1193\/1.2186678","article-title":"The 1906 San Francisco earthquake and fire - enduring lessons for fire protection and water supply","volume":"22","author":"Scawthorn","year":"2006","journal-title":"Earthquake Spectra"},{"issue":"28","key":"2025122304584372400_ref037","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/s1474-6670(17)38465-3","article-title":"Post-earthquake fires and performance of firefighting activity in the early stage in the 1995 great Hanshin-Awaji earthquake","volume":"31","author":"Sekizawa","year":"1998","journal-title":"IFAC Control in Natural Disasters"},{"key":"2025122304584372400_ref038","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"691","DOI":"10.3801\/IAFSS.FSS.11-691","article-title":"Study on fires following the 2011 great East-Japan earthquake based on the questionnaire survey to fire departments in affected areas","volume":"11","author":"Sekizawa","year":"2014","journal-title":"Fire Safety Science"},{"issue":"5","key":"2025122304584372400_ref039","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"173","DOI":"10.3390\/fire5050173","article-title":"Assessment and mitigation of the fire vulnerability and risk in the historic city centre of Aveiro, Portugal","volume":"5","author":"Silva","year":"2022","journal-title":"Fire"},{"key":"2025122304584372400_ref040","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"6","DOI":"10.1016\/j.quaint.2021.11.006","article-title":"The AD 1755 Lisbon Earthquake-Tsunami: seismic source modelling from the analysis of ESI-07 environmental data","volume":"651","author":"Silva","year":"2023","journal-title":"Quaternary International"},{"issue":"1","key":"2025122304584372400_ref041","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"71","DOI":"10.1193\/010412EQS001M","article-title":"Incorporating simulated ground motion in seismic risk assessment: application to the lower Indian Himalayas","volume":"31","author":"S\u00f8rensen","year":"2015","journal-title":"Earthquake Spectra"},{"key":"2025122304584372400_ref042","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"197","DOI":"10.1016\/j.firesaf.2012.07.002","article-title":"Characteristics and problems of fires following the Great East Japan earthquake in March 2011","volume":"54","author":"Tanaka","year":"2012","journal-title":"Fire Safety Journal"},{"issue":"4","key":"2025122304584372400_ref043","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1067","DOI":"10.1007\/s10518-010-9233-3","article-title":"Seismic vulnerability and risk assessment: case study of the historic city centre of Coimbra, Portugal","volume":"9","author":"Vicente","year":"2011","journal-title":"Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering"},{"issue":"1","key":"2025122304584372400_ref044","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"26","DOI":"10.1007\/s41062-023-01333-0","article-title":"Post-earthquake fire risk and loss assessment in urban areas","volume":"9","author":"Vitorino","year":"2024","journal-title":"Innovative Infrastructure Solutions"},{"issue":"12","key":"2025122304584372400_ref045","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3357","DOI":"10.5194\/nhess-13-3357-2013","article-title":"Post-earthquake ignition vulnerability assessment of K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fc k\u00e7ekmece district","volume":"13","author":"Yildiz","year":"2013","journal-title":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences"},{"issue":"1","key":"2025122304584372400_ref046","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"45","DOI":"10.1177\/0734904108094516","article-title":"Fire following earthquake, intra-structure ignition modeling","volume":"27","author":"Zolfaghari","year":"2009","journal-title":"Journal of Fire Sciences"}],"container-title":["Journal of Structural Fire Engineering"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.emerald.com\/jsfe\/article-pdf\/doi\/10.1108\/JSFE-05-2025-0018\/11143107\/jsfe-05-2025-0018en.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.emerald.com\/jsfe\/article-pdf\/doi\/10.1108\/JSFE-05-2025-0018\/11143107\/jsfe-05-2025-0018en.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,23]],"date-time":"2025-12-23T09:58:54Z","timestamp":1766483934000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.emerald.com\/jsfe\/article\/doi\/10.1108\/JSFE-05-2025-0018\/1331799\/Post-earthquake-fire-risk-assessment-at-urban"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,25]]},"references-count":46,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1108\/jsfe-05-2025-0018","relation":{},"ISSN":["2040-2317","2040-2325"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2040-2317","type":"print"},{"value":"2040-2325","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,25]]}}}