{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,16]],"date-time":"2026-05-16T05:38:03Z","timestamp":1778909883732,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":122,"publisher":"Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE)","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,7,1]],"date-time":"2019-07-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1561939200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/ieeexplore.ieee.org\/Xplorehelp\/downloads\/license-information\/IEEE.html"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,7,1]],"date-time":"2019-07-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1561939200000},"content-version":"stm-asf","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.15223\/policy-029"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,7,1]],"date-time":"2019-07-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1561939200000},"content-version":"stm-asf","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.15223\/policy-037"}],"funder":[{"name":"Erasmus + Programme of the European Union, projects MOOC Maker","award":["561533-EPP-1-2015-1-ES-EPPKA2-CBHE-JP"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["561533-EPP-1-2015-1-ES-EPPKA2-CBHE-JP"]}]},{"name":"SHEILA","award":["562080-EPP-1-2015-BE-EPPKA3-PI-FORWARD"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["562080-EPP-1-2015-BE-EPPKA3-PI-FORWARD"]}]},{"name":"LALA","award":["586120-EPP-1-2017-1-ES-EPPKA2-CBHE-JP"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["586120-EPP-1-2017-1-ES-EPPKA2-CBHE-JP"]}]},{"name":"COMPETENSEA","award":["574212-EPP-1-2016-1-NL-EPPKA2-CBHE-JP"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["574212-EPP-1-2016-1-NL-EPPKA2-CBHE-JP"]}]},{"name":"Madrid Regional Government","award":["S2013\/ICE-2715"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["S2013\/ICE-2715"]}]},{"name":"Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness","award":["TIN2014-53199-C3-1-R"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["TIN2014-53199-C3-1-R"]}]},{"name":"Smartlet","award":["TIN2017-85179-C3-1-R"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["TIN2017-85179-C3-1-R"]}]},{"name":"State Research Agency in Spain"},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100008530","name":"European Regional Development Fund","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100008530","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Spanish Ministry of Education, Culture, and Sport","award":["FPU016\/00526"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["FPU016\/00526"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["IEEE Trans. Learning Technol."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2019,7,1]]},"DOI":"10.1109\/tlt.2018.2856808","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2018,7,17]],"date-time":"2018-07-17T18:37:38Z","timestamp":1531852658000},"page":"384-401","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":132,"title":["Prediction in MOOCs: A Review and Future Research Directions"],"prefix":"10.1109","volume":"12","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0835-1414","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Pedro Manuel","family":"Moreno-Marcos","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3082-0814","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Carlos","family":"Alario-Hoyos","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2552-4674","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Pedro J.","family":"Munoz-Merino","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4093-3705","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Carlos Delgado","family":"Kloos","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"263","reference":[{"key":"ref39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/JSTSP.2017.2700227"},{"key":"ref38","first-page":"484","article-title":"Predicting performance on MOOC assessments using multi-regression models","author":"ren","year":"2016","journal-title":"Proc Int Conf Data Mining"},{"key":"ref33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-319-46257-8_10"},{"key":"ref32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/2567574.2567627"},{"key":"ref31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/2724660.2724680"},{"key":"ref30","article-title":"Likely to stop? Predicting stopout in massive open online courses","author":"taylor","year":"2014"},{"key":"ref37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.18608\/jla.2014.13.14"},{"key":"ref36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/3144826.3145396"},{"key":"ref35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3115\/v1\/W14-4111"},{"key":"ref34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.chb.2015.12.007"},{"key":"ref28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/edu0000013"},{"key":"ref27","article-title":"Overblown-claims-of-failure watch: How not to gauge the success of online courses","author":"rosen","year":"2012","journal-title":"The Atlantic"},{"key":"ref29","first-page":"3","article-title":"Dropout prediction in MOOCs using learner activity features","volume":"7","author":"halawa","year":"2014","journal-title":"Experiences and best practices in and around MOOCs"},{"key":"ref20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/3027385.3029479"},{"key":"ref22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/2883851.2883907"},{"key":"ref21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.compedu.2016.09.005"},{"key":"ref24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/TLT.2013.2296520"},{"key":"ref23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.compedu.2013.06.009"},{"key":"ref101","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1021\/ci034160g"},{"key":"ref26","article-title":"Coursera takes a nuanced view of MOOC dropout rates","author":"kolowich","year":"2013","journal-title":"The Chronicle of Higher Education"},{"key":"ref100","article-title":"Statistical approaches to the model comparison tasks in learning analytics","author":"gardner","year":"2017","journal-title":"Proc Workshop Methodol Learn Anal Workshop Building Learn Anal Curriculum"},{"key":"ref25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.compedu.2003.09.005"},{"key":"ref50","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/2930238.2930240"},{"key":"ref51","first-page":"52","article-title":"Exploring the effect of student confusion in massive open online courses","volume":"8","author":"yang","year":"2016","journal-title":"Educational Data Mining"},{"key":"ref59","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.compedu.2011.06.004"},{"key":"ref58","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.compedu.2016.09.006"},{"key":"ref57","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.4324\/9781315265872","author":"pan","year":"2016","journal-title":"Preparing Literature Reviews Qualitative and Quantitative Approaches"},{"key":"ref56","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0899-3467(07)60142-6"},{"key":"ref55","first-page":"1363","article-title":"Structuring lectures in massive open online courses (MOOCs) for efficient learning by linking similar sections and predicting prerequisites","author":"shen","year":"2015","journal-title":"Proc Annu Conf Int Speech Commun Assoc"},{"key":"ref54","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/3099023.3099038"},{"key":"ref53","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/3132847.3132965"},{"key":"ref52","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3115\/v1\/P15-1161"},{"key":"ref40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/2724660.2728669"},{"key":"ref4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-319-10671-7_4"},{"key":"ref3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/2531602.2531657"},{"key":"ref6","first-page":"1272","article-title":"Learning latent engagement patterns of students in online courses","author":"ramesh","year":"2014","journal-title":"Proc AAAI Conf Artif Intell"},{"key":"ref5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/2556325.2567879"},{"key":"ref8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/2699735"},{"key":"ref49","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1744-6570.1991.tb00688.x"},{"key":"ref7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3115\/v1\/P14-1141"},{"key":"ref9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.procs.2015.12.157"},{"key":"ref46","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/2876034.2893427"},{"key":"ref45","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3115\/v1\/P15-1008"},{"key":"ref48","first-page":"65","article-title":"Predicting student participation in peer reviews in MOOCs","author":"er","year":"0","journal-title":"Proc 2nd MOOC European Stakeholders Summit"},{"key":"ref47","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/jcal.12127"},{"key":"ref42","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/2883851.2883932"},{"key":"ref41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/2723576.2723593"},{"key":"ref44","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/TLT.2014.2337900"},{"key":"ref43","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/VAST.2016.7883517"},{"key":"ref73","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2196\/jmir.3439"},{"key":"ref72","first-page":"130","article-title":"Learning how to teach… differently: Extracts from a MOOC instructor's journal","author":"comer","year":"2014","journal-title":"Invasion of the MOOCs The Promise and Perils of Massive Open Online Courses"},{"key":"ref71","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-319-19773-9_6"},{"key":"ref70","article-title":"By the numbers: MOOCs in 2015","author":"shah","year":"2015","journal-title":"Class Central"},{"key":"ref76","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1155\/2016\/2174613"},{"key":"ref77","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.23940\/ijpe.17.02.p9.201210"},{"key":"ref74","first-page":"11","article-title":"Predicting dropouts on the successive offering of a MOOC","author":"vitiello","year":"2017","journal-title":"Proc Int Conf MOOC-MAKER"},{"key":"ref75","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/2724660.2724662"},{"key":"ref78","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/INFOCOM.2015.7218617"},{"key":"ref79","first-page":"2","article-title":"Predicting speech acts in MOOC forum posts","author":"arguello","year":"0","journal-title":"Proc AAAI Conf on Weblogs and Social Media"},{"key":"ref60","first-page":"1","article-title":"Authoring tools for designing intelligent tutoring systems: A systematic review of the literature","author":"dermeval","year":"2017","journal-title":"Int J Artif Intell Ed"},{"key":"ref62","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s40273-012-0008-3"},{"key":"ref61","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10778-009-0189-4"},{"key":"ref63","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1108\/IJPDLM-05-2013-0124"},{"key":"ref64","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/2724660.2728687"},{"key":"ref65","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/3051457.3054002"},{"key":"ref66","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/2883851.2883931"},{"key":"ref67","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/2883851.2883949"},{"key":"ref68","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/2835776.2835842"},{"key":"ref2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.2350964"},{"key":"ref69","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.compedu.2012.03.016"},{"key":"ref1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.bushor.2016.03.008"},{"key":"ref109","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/2876034.2893416"},{"key":"ref95","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.iheduc.2016.08.001"},{"key":"ref108","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-319-68612-7_26"},{"key":"ref94","author":"makhabel","year":"2015","journal-title":"Learning Data Mining With R"},{"key":"ref107","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0022-1694(00)00228-6"},{"key":"ref93","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/2724660.2728668"},{"key":"ref106","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-319-59044-8_31"},{"key":"ref92","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/ICCSE.2017.8085583"},{"key":"ref105","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1214\/aos\/1013203451"},{"key":"ref91","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/cae.21830"},{"key":"ref104","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-319-55705-2_27"},{"key":"ref90","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/ICCSE.2016.7581554"},{"key":"ref103","first-page":"41","article-title":"An empirical study of the naive Bayes classifier","volume":"3","author":"rish","year":"2001","journal-title":"Proc IJCAI Workshop Empirical Methods Artif Intell"},{"key":"ref102","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/ELELTECH.2017.8074997"},{"key":"ref111","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/3-540-32392-9_28"},{"key":"ref112","article-title":"Towards a general method for building predictive models of learner success using educational time series data","author":"brooks","year":"2014","journal-title":"Proc Int Conf Learn Anal Knowl"},{"key":"ref110","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/ICDM.2015.146"},{"key":"ref98","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/3109859.3109886"},{"key":"ref99","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0020-7373(87)80053-6"},{"key":"ref96","author":"vapnik","year":"2010","journal-title":"The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory"},{"key":"ref97","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/ICDMW.2015.174"},{"key":"ref10","first-page":"22","article-title":"Next-term student performance prediction: A recommender systems approach","volume":"8","author":"sweeney","year":"2016","journal-title":"Educational Data Mining"},{"key":"ref11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.iheduc.2015.10.002"},{"key":"ref12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.18608\/jla.2014.13.3"},{"key":"ref13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.compedu.2009.05.010"},{"key":"ref14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/3041021.3054164"},{"key":"ref15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.19030\/cier.v10i2.9920"},{"key":"ref118","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.compedu.2016.10.001"},{"key":"ref16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/TSP.2015.2496278"},{"key":"ref82","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/3027385.3027387"},{"key":"ref117","first-page":"1","article-title":"Metrics for evaluation of student models","volume":"7","author":"pel\u00e1nek","year":"2015","journal-title":"Educational Data Mining"},{"key":"ref17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.compedu.2012.08.015"},{"key":"ref81","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/FIE.2016.7757735"},{"key":"ref18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/2876034.2876036"},{"key":"ref84","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/jcal.12135"},{"key":"ref119","first-page":"5825","article-title":"Dropout rates of massive open online courses: behavioural patterns","author":"onah","year":"2014","journal-title":"Proc 6th Int Conf on Edu and New Learning Tech"},{"key":"ref19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/2883851.2883870"},{"key":"ref83","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.socnet.2015.05.001"},{"key":"ref114","first-page":"249","article-title":"Assessing agreement on classification tasks: The kappa statistic","volume":"22","author":"carletta","year":"1996","journal-title":"Comput Linguistics"},{"key":"ref113","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/MC.2016.119"},{"key":"ref116","first-page":"7","article-title":"Predicting student attrition in MOOCs using sentiment analysis and neural networks","author":"chaplot","year":"2015","journal-title":"Proc Int Conf Artificial Intell"},{"key":"ref80","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/2645710.2645748"},{"key":"ref115","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2529310"},{"key":"ref120","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.patrec.2005.10.010"},{"key":"ref89","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/IDAACS.2015.7341439"},{"key":"ref121","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1096-7516(00)00016-6"},{"key":"ref122","article-title":"Improving the quality and productivity of the higher education sector","author":"siemens","year":"2013"},{"key":"ref85","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/IJCNN.2017.7965922"},{"key":"ref86","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3102\/0002831215584621"},{"key":"ref87","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/TSP.2016.2546228"},{"key":"ref88","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-319-19773-9_6"}],"container-title":["IEEE Transactions on Learning Technologies"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/xplorestaging.ieee.org\/ielx7\/4620076\/8840985\/08412110.pdf?arnumber=8412110","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2022,8,27]],"date-time":"2022-08-27T19:55:54Z","timestamp":1661630154000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/ieeexplore.ieee.org\/document\/8412110\/"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2019,7,1]]},"references-count":122,"journal-issue":{"issue":"3"},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1109\/tlt.2018.2856808","relation":{},"ISSN":["1939-1382","2372-0050"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1939-1382","type":"electronic"},{"value":"2372-0050","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2019,7,1]]}}}