{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2024,10,30]],"date-time":"2024-10-30T16:39:57Z","timestamp":1730306397755,"version":"3.28.0"},"reference-count":43,"publisher":"IEEE","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2015,12]]},"DOI":"10.1109\/wsc.2015.7408379","type":"proceedings-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2016,5,7]],"date-time":"2016-05-07T09:42:38Z","timestamp":1462614158000},"page":"2728-2739","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Reasoning beyond predictive validity: the role of plausibility in decision-supporting social simulation"],"prefix":"10.1109","author":[{"given":"Marko A.","family":"Hofmann","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]}],"member":"263","reference":[{"key":"ref39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/WSC.2010.5679100"},{"key":"ref38","first-page":"462","article-title":"Emerging M&S challenges for human, social, cultural, and behavioral modeling","author":"tolk","year":"2009","journal-title":"Proceedings of the 2009 Summer Computer Simulation Conference"},{"key":"ref33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/1046878108319640"},{"key":"ref32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF01064113"},{"key":"ref31","first-page":"79","article-title":"A critique of some clasclass theories of decisions under uncertainty","volume":"4","author":"pataki","year":"1995","journal-title":"Periodica poly technica"},{"key":"ref30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2084615"},{"journal-title":"Expert Political Judgment How Good Is It? How Can We Know?","year":"2005","author":"tetlock","key":"ref37"},{"key":"ref36","volume":"i; ii","author":"simon","year":"1982","journal-title":"Models of Bounded Rationality"},{"journal-title":"The Foundations of Statistics","year":"1951","author":"savage","key":"ref35"},{"key":"ref34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/WSC.2000.899891"},{"journal-title":"Future babble why expert predictions fail and why we believe them anyway","year":"2011","author":"gardner","key":"ref10"},{"key":"ref40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/WSC.2013.6721504"},{"key":"ref11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF01700692"},{"key":"ref12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.6.1.25"},{"key":"ref13","article-title":"The myth of science-based predictive modeling","author":"hemez","year":"2004","journal-title":"Foundations 2004 Workshop for Verification Validation and Accreditation in the 21 st Century"},{"key":"ref14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/bs.3830120306"},{"key":"ref15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/opre.39.3.355"},{"key":"ref16","article-title":"Introducing pragmatics into verifcation, validation and accreditation","author":"hofmann","year":"2002","journal-title":"Proceedings of the 2nd European Simulation Interoperability Workshop (EURO-SIW)"},{"key":"ref17","article-title":"Validation: real world system knowledge, types of validity and credibility levels","author":"hofmann","year":"2002","journal-title":"Proceedings of the 16 European simulation Mulitconference"},{"key":"ref18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/1548512912472941"},{"key":"ref19","first-page":"17","article-title":"Is it appropriate to use the objective, rational decision-making framework as a foundation for the modelling of social systems?","volume":"22","author":"hofmann","year":"2007","journal-title":"Information and Security"},{"journal-title":"Limits to Growth The 30-year Update","year":"2004","author":"meadows","key":"ref28"},{"key":"ref4","article-title":"Data farming: a meta-technique for research in the 21st century","author":"brandstein","year":"1998","journal-title":"Technical report Marine Corps Combat Development Command Publication"},{"key":"ref27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0377-2217(93)90310-J"},{"key":"ref3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2539130"},{"key":"ref6","article-title":"Lessons from RAND's work on planning under uncertainty for national security","author":"davis","year":"2012","journal-title":"Technical Report"},{"key":"ref29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-531-90144-2_2"},{"key":"ref5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/inte.4.1.1"},{"journal-title":"Technical Report MR-114-A","year":"2005","author":"dewar","key":"ref8"},{"key":"ref7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511596667.006"},{"key":"ref2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.futures.2004.11.003"},{"key":"ref9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.18564\/jasss.1523"},{"key":"ref1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/opre.41.3.435"},{"key":"ref20","article-title":"Dealing with Structural Uncertainty in Tactical Wargaming","author":"hofmann","year":"2008","journal-title":"Proceedings of the 9 European Simulation Interoperability Workshop 08F-SIW-064"},{"key":"ref22","first-page":"3440","article-title":"The can you trust it? problem of simulation science in the design of socio-technical systems","volume":"6","author":"johnson","year":"2001","journal-title":"Complexity"},{"key":"ref21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.11610\/isij.2207"},{"key":"ref42","first-page":"3","article-title":"The pretence of knowledge (Nobel Prize Lecture 1974)","volume":"79","author":"von hayek","year":"1989","journal-title":"(Reprinted in ) The American Economic Review"},{"journal-title":"Risk Uncertainty and Profit","year":"1921","author":"knight","key":"ref24"},{"key":"ref41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4324\/9780203454220"},{"key":"ref23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-94-015-8686-3_2"},{"key":"ref26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.futures.2005.09.004"},{"key":"ref43","article-title":"The Model Muddle: Proposals for an Immodest Realism. Boston Studies in the Philosophy of Science. 48 1-11","author":"wartofsky","year":"1979","journal-title":"Technical Report Boston University"},{"key":"ref25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0309-1708(92)90033-X"}],"event":{"name":"2015 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","start":{"date-parts":[[2015,12,6]]},"location":"Huntington Beach, CA, USA","end":{"date-parts":[[2015,12,9]]}},"container-title":["2015 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/xplorestaging.ieee.org\/ielx7\/7399125\/7408148\/07408379.pdf?arnumber=7408379","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2017,3,22]],"date-time":"2017-03-22T22:33:06Z","timestamp":1490221986000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"http:\/\/ieeexplore.ieee.org\/document\/7408379\/"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2015,12]]},"references-count":43,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1109\/wsc.2015.7408379","relation":{},"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2015,12]]}}}