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We then used a matrix population model to translate these observed patterns into predicted population\u2010level effects.<\/jats:p><\/jats:list-item><jats:list-item><jats:p>Annual brucellosis seroprevalence ranged from 8\u00b77% (95%<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">CI<\/jats:styled-content>\u00a0=\u00a01\u00b78\u201315\u00b76) to 47\u00b76% (95%<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">CI<\/jats:styled-content>\u00a0=\u00a035\u00b71\u201360\u00b71) increased with age until adulthood (&gt;6) and varied by location within<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">KNP<\/jats:styled-content>. Animals were on average in worse condition after testing positive for brucellosis (<jats:italic>F<\/jats:italic>\u00a0=\u00a0\u22125\u00b7074,<jats:italic>P<\/jats:italic>\u00a0&lt;\u00a00\u00b70001), and infection was associated with a 2\u00b70 (95%<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">CI<\/jats:styled-content>\u00a0=\u00a01\u00b71\u20133\u00b77) fold increase in mortality (\u03c7<jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup>\u00a0=\u00a02\u00b7039,<jats:italic>P<\/jats:italic>\u00a0=\u00a00\u00b7036). Buffalo in low body condition were associated with lower reproductive success (<jats:italic>F<\/jats:italic>\u00a0=\u00a02\u00b7683,<jats:italic>P<\/jats:italic>\u00a0=\u00a00\u00b7034), but there was no association between brucellosis and pregnancy or being observed with a calf.<\/jats:p><\/jats:list-item><jats:list-item><jats:p>For the range of body condition scores observed in the population, the model\u2010predicted growth rate was \u03bb\u00a0=\u00a01\u00b711 (95%<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">CI<\/jats:styled-content>\u00a0=\u00a01\u00b702\u20131\u00b721) in herds without brucellosis and \u03bb\u00a0=\u00a01\u00b700 (95%<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">CI<\/jats:styled-content>\u00a0=\u00a00\u00b785\u20131\u00b716) when brucellosis seroprevalence was 30%.<\/jats:p><\/jats:list-item><jats:list-item><jats:p>Our results suggest that brucellosis infection can potentially result in reduced population growth rates, but because these effects varied with demographic and environmental conditions, they may remain unseen without intensive, longitudinal monitoring.<\/jats:p><\/jats:list-item><\/jats:list><\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/1365-2656.12356","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2015,2,25]],"date-time":"2015-02-25T13:21:39Z","timestamp":1424870499000},"page":"999-1009","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":36,"title":["Context\u2010dependent survival, fecundity and predicted population\u2010level consequences of brucellosis in<scp>A<\/scp>frican buffalo"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"84","author":[{"given":"Erin E.","family":"Gorsich","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Integrative Biology Oregon State University Corvallis OR 97331 USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Vanessa O.","family":"Ezenwa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Odum School of Ecology and Department of Infectious Diseases College of Veterinary Medicine University of Georgia Athens GA 30602 USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Paul C.","family":"Cross","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"U.S. Geological Survey Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center Bozeman MT 59715 USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Roy G.","family":"Bengis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Directorate of Animal Health State Veterinary Office Skukuza 1350 South Africa"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Anna E.","family":"Jolles","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biomedical Sciences Oregon State University Corvallis OR 97331 USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2015,3,18]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_7_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2002.2064"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7589\/0090-3558-30.4.481"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11250-010-9675-2"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_5_1","unstructured":"Bates D. 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