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Yet most studies use storm proxies such as the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI), potentially obfuscating a mechanistic understanding of current and future risk.<\/jats:p><\/jats:list-item>\n\n<jats:list-item><jats:p>Here, we investigate the impact of extratropical cyclones by extracting north Atlantic winter storm characteristics (storm number, intensity, clustering and wave conditions) and relating these with long\u2010term overwinter adult survival of three long\u2010lived sympatric seabirds which winter at sea\u2014common guillemot <jats:italic>Uria aalge<\/jats:italic>, Atlantic puffin <jats:italic>Fratercula arctica<\/jats:italic> and razorbill <jats:italic>Alca torda<\/jats:italic>.<\/jats:p><\/jats:list-item>\n\n<jats:list-item><jats:p>We used multidecadal mark\u2010recapture analysis (1970s\u20132020s) to estimate survival while correcting for resighting probability, combined with spatially explicit environmental data from geolocation\u2010derived wintering areas, to determine the impact of different storm characteristics (i.e., number, intensity, duration, gap between storms, wave height and wind speed), as well as broad\u2010scale climatic conditions (NAOI and sea surface temperature [SST]).<\/jats:p><\/jats:list-item>\n\n<jats:list-item><jats:p>All three species experienced rapid population growth over the study period. Guillemot and razorbill survival was lower during stormier winters, with an additive effect of summer SST for guillemots, and a negative interaction with population size for razorbills. Puffin survival was negatively correlated with winter SST, and the lowest puffin survival coincided with intense winter storms and a large seabird wreck in 2013\/14. The number of days with wind speed &gt;30 and 35\u2009ms<jats:sup>\u22121<\/jats:sup> negatively impacted razorbill and guillemot survival, respectively, and puffin survival was higher when gaps between storms were longer.<\/jats:p><\/jats:list-item>\n\n<jats:list-item><jats:p>Our results suggest negative but divergent storm impacts on these closely related sympatric breeders, which may be compounded by warmer seas and density\u2010dependence as these populations return to their previously much larger sizes. We tentatively suggest that frequent, long\u2010lasting storms with strong winds are likely to have the greatest negative impact on auk survival. Moreover, we highlight the possibility of tipping points, where only the most extreme storms, that may become more frequent in the future, have measurable impacts on seabird survival, and no effect of NAOI.<\/jats:p><\/jats:list-item>\n<\/jats:list>\n<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/1365-2656.14227","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,20]],"date-time":"2024-11-20T04:53:39Z","timestamp":1732078419000},"page":"139-153","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":9,"title":["Long\u2010term multi\u2010species demographic studies reveal divergent negative impacts of winter storms on seabird survival"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"94","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0002-6191-4028","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Kirsty","family":"Laurenson","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Lyell Centre Heriot Watt University  Edinburgh UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Matt J.","family":"Wood","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Gloucestershire  Cheltenham UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tim R.","family":"Birkhead","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Biosciences University of Sheffield  Sheffield UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Matthew D. K.","family":"Priestley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics &amp; Statistics University of Exeter  Exeter UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7367-9315","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Richard B.","family":"Sherley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Environment and Sustainability Institute and Centre for Ecology and Conservation University of Exeter  Penryn UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6373-0500","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Annette L.","family":"Fayet","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Norwegian Institute for Nature Research  Trondheim Norway"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tim","family":"Guilford","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Zoology University of Oxford  Oxford UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ben J.","family":"Hatchwell","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Biosciences University of Sheffield  Sheffield UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Stephen C.","family":"Votier","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Lyell Centre Heriot Watt University  Edinburgh UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,19]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_10_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3354\/meps238199"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/3676349"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598\u2010018\u201037527\u20101"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_5_1","first-page":"367","volume-title":"Seabirds count: A census of breeding seabirds in Britain and Ireland (2015\u20132021)","author":"Bennett S.","year":"2023"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_6_1","unstructured":"BirdLife International. 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