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Monitoring and modelling indicators of health can thus provide a way to assess and forecast the status of a population before its abundance changes.<\/jats:p>\n                      <\/jats:list-item>\n                      <jats:list-item>\n                        <jats:p>\n                          In this study, we develop a Bayesian state\u2013space model that links multiple health indicators (representing energy, endocrine and morphometric status) and resulting female calving probability, using an 8\u2010year dataset of repeated sightings, morphological measurements, faecal sampling and offspring observations of gray whales (\n                          <jats:italic>Eschrichtius robustus<\/jats:italic>\n                          ) belonging to the Pacific Coast Feeding Group.\n                        <\/jats:p>\n                      <\/jats:list-item>\n                      <jats:list-item>\n                        <jats:p>Model results indicate that calving probability emerges from the combined effect of a female's structural body size and available energy reserves, while also showing a weak negative correlation with glucocorticoid levels prior to pregnancy. Assessment of population age structure suggests that the number of individuals in younger age classes is smaller than expected for a growing or a stable population, which, together with decreasing body size, could indicate an impending decline in this group. Model development was made possible by the collection of high\u2010resolution, longitudinal data on individuals, although several mechanistic assumptions were imposed by the relatively short time series (8\u2009years), influencing the results.<\/jats:p>\n                      <\/jats:list-item>\n                      <jats:list-item>\n                        <jats:p>Our modelling approach could inform similar efforts in other long\u2010lived species where population dynamics cannot be easily monitored. Ultimately, models of wildlife health and vital rates can support assessments of the population\u2010level consequences of multiple stressors, a key goal for management and conservation across systems and jurisdictions.<\/jats:p>\n                      <\/jats:list-item>\n                    <\/jats:list>\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/1365-2656.70068","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,12]],"date-time":"2025-06-12T05:16:49Z","timestamp":1749705409000},"page":"1422-1434","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":5,"title":["Body size, nutritional state and endocrine state are associated with calving probability in a long\u2010lived marine species"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"94","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3541-3676","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Enrico","family":"Pirotta","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Research into Ecological and Environmental Modelling University of St Andrews  St Andrews UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Leslie","family":"New","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics, Computer Science and Statistics Ursinus College  Collegeville Pennsylvania USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Alejandro","family":"Fernandez Aj\u00f3","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Geospatial Ecology of Marine Megafauna Lab, Marine Mammal Institute, Department of Fisheries, Wildlife and Conservation Sciences Oregon State University  Newport Oregon USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9724-6055","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"K. C.","family":"Bierlich","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Geospatial Ecology of Marine Megafauna Lab, Marine Mammal Institute, Department of Fisheries, Wildlife and Conservation Sciences Oregon State University  Newport Oregon USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Clara N.","family":"Bird","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Geospatial Ecology of Marine Megafauna Lab, Marine Mammal Institute, Department of Fisheries, Wildlife and Conservation Sciences Oregon State University  Newport Oregon USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"C. Loren","family":"Buck","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biological Sciences Northern Arizona University  Flagstaff Arizona USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5688-1116","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Lisa","family":"Hildebrand","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Geospatial Ecology of Marine Megafauna Lab, Marine Mammal Institute, Department of Fisheries, Wildlife and Conservation Sciences Oregon State University  Newport Oregon USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kathleen E.","family":"Hunt","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Smithsonian\u2010Mason School of Conservation &amp; Department of Biology George Mason University  Front Royal Virginia USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"John","family":"Calambokidis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Cascadia Research Collective  Olympia Washington USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Leigh G.","family":"Torres","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Geospatial Ecology of Marine Megafauna Lab, Marine Mammal Institute, Department of Fisheries, Wildlife and Conservation Sciences Oregon State University  Newport Oregon USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,12]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_10_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/conphys\/coad035"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ecm.1470"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-024-59552-z"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ele.14193"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fmars.2021.749943"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rsbl.2023.0043"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.anbehav.2024.06.004"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/692797"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2003.08.002"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/mms.12527"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.47536\/jcrm.v4i3.839"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_13_1","unstructured":"Calambokidis J. &Perez A.(2017).Sightings and follow\u2010up of mothers and calves in the PCFG and implications for internal recruitment.Paper SC\/A17\/GW\/04 presented to the International Whaling Commission Scientific Committee 7https:\/\/cascadiaresearch.org\/files\/RS6435_SC_A17_GW_04.pdf"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41559\u2010023\u201001985\u20102"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1365\u20102435.12200"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/ncomms10984"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ele.12948"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0169\u20105347(01)02137\u20101"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/conphys\/cou023"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/10618600.2016.1172487"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.ecolsys.36.102003.152644"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ygcen.2013.06.014"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/3072020"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rsos.230452"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.0269-8463.2005.00945.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_26_1","unstructured":"Harris J. 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