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Periodic outbreaks can be driven by several seasonally varying factors, including pulses of susceptible individuals through births, changes in host behaviour and social aggregation and variation in host immunity. However, when these potential drivers overlap temporally, isolating their relative contributions to outbreak patterns becomes challenging.<\/jats:p>\n <\/jats:list-item>\n \n We studied Hendra virus, a zoonotic pathogen with seasonal spillovers from bats to horses and humans. Multiple seasonal factors have been hypothesized to drive Hendra virus transmission, including food shortages, birth pulses and changes in host aggregation, but their temporal overlap has made identifying primary drivers difficult.<\/jats:p>\n <\/jats:list-item>\n \n \n We conducted a 4\u2010year longitudinal study of\n Pteropus<\/jats:italic>\n bats to test whether seasonal birth pulses and the resulting influx of susceptible juveniles drive Hendra virus transmission. Using a Bayesian ageing model, we aged sexually immature bats and placed them into birth cohorts. We used our age predictions to model how viral shedding and antibody responses changed as bats aged. We tracked\n Bartonella<\/jats:italic>\n spp. Infection\u2014a bacterial pathogen requiring close contact for transmission\u2014as an indicator of transmission opportunities within each cohort for comparison.\n <\/jats:p>\n <\/jats:list-item>\n \n \n We found no evidence that seasonal birth pulses of immunologically na\u00efve juveniles drove Hendra virus transmission. Two out of three cohorts showed substantially reduced maternal antibody transfer compared to the 2018 cohort, with seroprevalence near zero at our earliest sampling timepoints and showed no clear evidence of synchronized seroconversion. Furthermore,\n Bartonella<\/jats:italic>\n infection rates were consistent across cohorts, indicating that opportunities for pathogen transmission remained consistent across cohorts despite varying viral shedding patterns.\n <\/jats:p>\n <\/jats:list-item>\n \n Our findings demonstrate that birth pulses alone cannot explain observed patterns of Hendra virus outbreaks. These results highlight the importance of using multiple lines of evidence to evaluate competing mechanisms underlying seasonal disease dynamics, particularly when potential drivers coincide temporally.<\/jats:p>\n <\/jats:list-item>\n <\/jats:list>\n <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/1365-2656.70213","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,2]],"date-time":"2026-02-02T10:45:10Z","timestamp":1770029110000},"page":"521-537","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Cohorts of immature\n Pteropus<\/i>\n bats show interannual variation in Hendra virus serology"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"95","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4262-253X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Daniel E.","family":"Crowley","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public and Ecosystem Health Cornell University Ithaca New York USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Caylee A.","family":"Falvo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public and Ecosystem Health Cornell University Ithaca New York USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Chris K.","family":"Grant","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Custom Monoclonals International Corp West Sacramento California USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7779-4107","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Benny","family":"Borremans","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Wildlife Health Ecology Research Organization San Diego California USA"},{"name":"Evolutionary Ecology Group, Department of Biology University of Antwerp Antwerp Belgium"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4439-2045","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Tamika J.","family":"Lunn","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Odum School of Ecology University of Georgia Athens Georgia USA"},{"name":"Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases University of Georgia Athens Georgia USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8463-7858","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Manuel","family":"Ruiz\u2010Aravena","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Wildlife, Fisheries, and Aquaculture Mississippi State University Starkville Mississippi USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Evelyn","family":"Benson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Microbiology & Cell Biology Montana State University Bozeman Montana USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6149-0598","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Clifton D.","family":"McKee","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Baltimore Maryland USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4315-8628","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Daniel J.","family":"Becker","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biology University of Oklahoma Norman Oklahoma USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Devin N.","family":"Jones","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Microbiology & Cell Biology Montana State University Bozeman Montana USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Trenton","family":"Bushmaker","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Laboratory of Virology, Division of Intramural Research, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Health Hamilton Montana USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Y. Tina","family":"Yu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public and Ecosystem Health Cornell University Ithaca New York USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Michelle","family":"Michie","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"CSIRO Health and Biosecurity Black Mountain Laboratories Canberra Australian Capital Territory Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Adrienne S.","family":"Dale","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Texas Department of Biological Sciences Texas Tech University Lubbock Texas USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Lianying","family":"Yan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Henry M. 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Petraityte\u2010Burneikiene R. \u2026Plowright R.(2025).Data from: Cohorts of immature Pteropus bats show interannual variation in Hendra virus serology.Zenodo.https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5281\/zenodo.15982445"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rsos.180041"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9781139794749.017"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/ncomms8000"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586\u2010022\u201005506\u20102"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268819001237"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0067584"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00248\u2010023\u201002293\u20109"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.18\u20100937"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0028678"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0144055"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/11.1.5"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.abb8664"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vetimm.2011.10.016"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2011.2277"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_35_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1010875108\/\u2010\/DCSupplemental.www.pnas.org\/cgi\/doi\/10.1073\/pnas.1010875108"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_36_1","first-page":"95","volume-title":"Feline immunology and immunodeficiency","author":"Grant C. 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Group H. \u2026Meade\u2010white K.(2023).Periodic shifts in viral load increase risk of spillover from bats.bioRxiv.https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2023.09.06.556454","DOI":"10.1101\/2023.09.06.556454"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_50_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0031182024000660"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_51_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"McKee C. D. Webb C. T. Kosoy M. Y. Bai Y. Osikowicz L. M. Suu\u2010Ire R. Ntiamoa\u2010Baidu Y. Cunningham A. A. Wood J. L. N. &Hayman D. T. 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