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Systematic field collections of the tick vector reveal increases in the geographic range and prevalence of <jats:italic>B. burgdorferi\u2013infected<\/jats:italic> ticks that coincided with increases in human Lyme disease incidence across New York State.<\/jats:p><\/jats:list-item>\n\n<jats:list-item><jats:p>We investigate the impact of environmental features on the population dynamics of <jats:italic>B. burgdorferi<\/jats:italic>. Analytical models developed using field collections of nearly 19,000 nymphal <jats:italic>Ixodes scapularis<\/jats:italic> and spatially and temporally explicit environmental features accurately explained the variation in the nymphal infection prevalence of <jats:italic>B. burgdorferi<\/jats:italic> across space and time.<\/jats:p><\/jats:list-item>\n\n<jats:list-item><jats:p>Importantly, the model identified environmental features reflecting landscape ecology, vertebrate hosts, climatic metrics, climate anomalies and surveillance efforts that can be used to predict the biogeographical patterns of <jats:italic>B. burgdorferi\u2013<\/jats:italic>infected ticks into future years and in previously unsampled areas.<\/jats:p><\/jats:list-item>\n\n<jats:list-item><jats:p>Forecasting the distribution and prevalence of a pathogen at fine geographic scales offers a powerful strategy to mitigate a serious public health threat.<\/jats:p><\/jats:list-item>\n\n<jats:list-item><jats:p><jats:italic>Synthesis and applications<\/jats:italic>. A decade of environmental and tick data was collected to create a model that accurately predicts the infection prevalence of <jats:italic>Borrelia burgdorferi<\/jats:italic> over space and time. This predictive model can be extrapolated to create a high\u2010resolution risk map of the Lyme disease pathogen for future years that offers an inexpensive approach to improve both ecological management and public health strategies to mitigate disease risk.<\/jats:p><\/jats:list-item>\n<\/jats:list>\n<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/1365-2664.14274","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,14]],"date-time":"2022-09-14T04:01:50Z","timestamp":1663128110000},"page":"2779-2789","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":18,"title":["Predicting spatio\u2010temporal population patterns of <i>Borrelia burgdorferi<\/i>, the Lyme disease pathogen"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"59","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7750-3592","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Tam","family":"Tran","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Biology Department University of Pennsylvania  Philadelphia PA USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6538-623X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Melissa A.","family":"Prusinski","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"New York State Department of Health (NYSDOH) Bureau of Communicable Disease Control  Albany NY USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6343-6109","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jennifer L.","family":"White","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"New York State Department of Health (NYSDOH) Bureau of Communicable Disease Control  Albany NY USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4463-7284","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Richard C.","family":"Falco","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"NYSDOH Fordham University Louis Calder Center  Armonk NY USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"John","family":"Kokas","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"NYSDOH Fordham University Louis Calder Center  Armonk NY USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0566-5330","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Vanessa","family":"Vinci","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"NYSDOH Fordham University Louis Calder Center  Armonk NY USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4548-3099","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Wayne K.","family":"Gall","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"US Department of Agriculture Animal &amp; Plant Health Inspection Service  Buffalo NY USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Keith J.","family":"Tober","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"US Department of Agriculture Animal &amp; Plant Health Inspection Service  Buffalo NY USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9643-3350","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jamie","family":"Haight","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"NYSDOH Bureau of Communicable Disease Control  Falconer NY USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2143-0822","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"JoAnne","family":"Oliver","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"NYSDOH Central New York Regional Office  Syracuse NY USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Lee Ann","family":"Sporn","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Paul Smith's College Natural Sciences Division  Paul Smiths NY USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2948-3283","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Lisa","family":"Meehan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"NYSDOH Division of Environmental Health Sciences  Albany NY USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3685-5030","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Elyse","family":"Banker","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"NYSDOH Division of Infectious Disease  Guilderland NY USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"P. 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