{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,5]],"date-time":"2026-10-05T16:56:35Z","timestamp":1791219395684,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":40,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"7","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,25]],"date-time":"2025-02-25T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1740441600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003123","name":"Fetal Medicine Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003123","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["obgyn.onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["BJOG"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,6]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Objective<\/jats:title><jats:p>To develop and validate a new first\u2010trimester model for the prediction of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) based on maternal demographic characteristics and elements of medical history.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Design<\/jats:title><jats:p>Prospective cohort study.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Setting<\/jats:title><jats:p>Inner\u2010city hospital.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Population<\/jats:title><jats:p>41\u2009587 women with singleton pregnancies at 11<jats:sup>+0<\/jats:sup>\u201313<jats:sup>+6<\/jats:sup> weeks' gestation, including 4231 (10.2%) who subsequently developed GDM.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>Logistic regression model for GDM was developed and fivefold cross\u2010validation was performed to assess the calibration and predictive performance of the model, assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and detection rates (DRs) at different screen positive rates (SPRs).<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Main Outcome Measure<\/jats:title><jats:p>GDM.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>In both parous women with a previous history of GDM and nulliparous women or parous women with no history of GDM, significant contributors to the prediction of GDM were maternal age, weight, height, ethnicity and family history of diabetes mellitus. In parous women with no previous history of GDM, there was a contribution from the birthweight z\u2010score of the previous pregnancy. There was good agreement between the predicted risk and observed incidence of GDM (intercept 0.000, 95% CI: \u22120.034, 0.034; slope 1.000, 95% CI: 0.967, 1.033). The AUROC curve was 0.757 (95% CI: 0.749, 0.765). The performance was higher for GDM treated with insulin versus metformin or diet alone. At SPR of 40%, the DR of the insulin, metformin and diet alone group was 87.2% (95% CI: 84.9, 89.3), 80.0% (77.8, 82.0) and 61.5% (59.2, 63.7), respectively.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title><jats:p>Assessment of risk for GDM can be achieved in the first trimester based on maternal risk factors.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/1471-0528.18110","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,26]],"date-time":"2025-02-26T07:56:37Z","timestamp":1740556597000},"page":"972-982","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":14,"title":["First\u2010Trimester Prediction of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus Based on Maternal Risk Factors"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"132","author":[{"given":"Argyro","family":"Syngelaki","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Harris Birthright Research Centre for Fetal Medicine King's College  London UK"},{"name":"Department of Women and Children's 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