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The accuracy of a test is an algebraic combination of the specificity and sensitivity of the test. Each test has limitations as given by its false positive and false negative rates. The aim of this study was to illustrate how the false positive and false negative rates are to be properly determined using a simulation study for the phenolphthalein test. New presumptive tests must be properly evaluated\/validated through testing of commonly encountered household items and other potentially probative items usually found at crime scenes, however, the makeup of test sets must appropriately capture<jats:italic>all<\/jats:italic>error rates. In order to correctly use these results when the test is applied to an unknown sample recovered at a crime scene, the error rates cannot be applied directly to estimate whether or not the sample is actually the analyte of interest. In a validation study, the forensic scientist calculates the false positive rate as the p(Positive Reaction|Blood), whereas at the scene, the crime scene investigator wishes to determine the p(Blood|Positive Reaction). All crime scene investigators need to ensure that the conditional is not transposed when interpreting such results. Furthermore, this work provides a model for the assessment of a multiple test diagnostic system intended for investigators.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/1556-4029.14924","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,11,8]],"date-time":"2021-11-08T11:51:51Z","timestamp":1636372311000},"page":"169-179","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["The use of error rates to predict and characterize the efficacy of presumptive field tests"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"67","author":[{"given":"Keith B.","family":"Morris","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Forensic and Investigative Science West Virginia University Morgantown West Virginia USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4232-368X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jamie S.","family":"Spaulding","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Criminal Justice and Forensic Science Hamline University Saint Paul Minnesota USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jennifer N.","family":"Ho","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Forensic and Investigative Science West Virginia University Morgantown West Virginia USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,11,8]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_6_2_1","first-page":"217","volume-title":"A dictionary of forensic science","author":"Bell S","year":"2012"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_3_1","first-page":"19","volume-title":"Eurachem guide: the fitness for purpose of analytical methods \u2013 a laboratory guide to method validation and related topics","author":"Magnusson B","year":"2014"},{"doi-asserted-by":"publisher","key":"e_1_2_6_4_1","DOI":"10.1520\/JFS13170J"},{"doi-asserted-by":"publisher","key":"e_1_2_6_5_1","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1556-4029.2006.00324.x"},{"doi-asserted-by":"publisher","key":"e_1_2_6_6_1","DOI":"10.1520\/JFS10566J"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1093\/oso\/9780198509844.001.0001","volume-title":"The statistical evaluation of medical tests for classification and prediction","author":"Pepe MS","year":"2003"},{"doi-asserted-by":"publisher","key":"e_1_2_6_8_1","DOI":"10.4324\/9780203740149-4"},{"doi-asserted-by":"publisher","key":"e_1_2_6_9_1","DOI":"10.1080\/00085030.1976.10757252"},{"doi-asserted-by":"publisher","key":"e_1_2_6_10_1","DOI":"10.2307\/1140307"},{"doi-asserted-by":"publisher","key":"e_1_2_6_11_1","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1556-4029.2008.00727.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_12_1","first-page":"320","volume-title":"Tietz textbook of clinical chemistry","author":"Koch DD","year":"1999"},{"doi-asserted-by":"publisher","key":"e_1_2_6_13_1","DOI":"10.1520\/JFS14688J"},{"issue":"2","key":"e_1_2_6_14_1","first-page":"1","article-title":"Critical revision of presumptive tests for bloodstains","volume":"1","author":"Ponce AC","year":"1999","journal-title":"Forensic Sci Commun"},{"doi-asserted-by":"publisher","key":"e_1_2_6_15_1","DOI":"10.1520\/JFS14835J"},{"doi-asserted-by":"publisher","key":"e_1_2_6_16_1","DOI":"10.1520\/JFS12968J"},{"doi-asserted-by":"publisher","key":"e_1_2_6_17_1","DOI":"10.1520\/JFS2002105"},{"unstructured":"National Association of Testing AuthoritiesGeneral accreditation guidance \u2013 validation and verification of quantitative and qualitative test methods. 2018.https:\/\/www.nata.com.au\/.Accessed 10 Jun 2021.","key":"e_1_2_6_18_1"},{"doi-asserted-by":"publisher","key":"e_1_2_6_19_1","DOI":"10.1007\/BF01044641"},{"doi-asserted-by":"publisher","key":"e_1_2_6_20_1","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1468-2230.2011.00857.x"},{"doi-asserted-by":"publisher","key":"e_1_2_6_21_1","DOI":"10.1016\/0003-2697(73)90334-5"},{"unstructured":"Daubert v. 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