{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,29]],"date-time":"2026-08-29T05:18:19Z","timestamp":1787980699661,"version":"build-2784847793"},"reference-count":24,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"8","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,4]],"date-time":"2026-08-04T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1785801600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":3,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,1]],"date-time":"2026-08-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1785542400000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["ift.onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Journal of Food Science"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,8]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:label\/>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      Post\u2010harvest losses are the most economically damaging phase of quality deterioration in the Egyptian strawberry export corridor. Egypt is the world's leading exporter of individually quick\u2010frozen strawberries and a top\u2010three supplier of fresh strawberries globally, yet substantial losses arise from cold chain failures, suboptimal packaging, and logistical inefficiencies. The objectives of this study are (1) to develop the first ML\u2010based post\u2010harvest loss prediction framework calibrated to Egyptian strawberry export conditions; (2) to benchmark four model architectures (Random Forest, eXtreme gradient boosting [XGBoost], support vector regression\/support vector classification [SVC], and long short\u2010term memory [LSTM]) for simultaneous shelf\u2010life estimation, export rejection classification, and loss severity categorization; and (3) to apply SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) explainability analysis to identify the dominant controllable cold chain predictors and translate model outputs into actionable guidance for cold chain operators, packinghouse managers, and export logistics coordinators. The framework was trained on a physics\u2010calibrated synthetic dataset of 800 Egyptian export lots (30 input features, 10 target variables). An ensemble stacking model achieved shelf\u2010life prediction\n                      <jats:italic>R<\/jats:italic>\n                      <jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup>\n                      = 0.934 (root mean square error = 0.41 days), export rejection area under the curve\u2010receiver operating characteristic = 0.961 (F1 = 0.862), and loss category quadratic weighted kappa = 0.887. SHAP analysis identified pre\u2010cooling delay, storage temperature, temperature deviation events, and transport duration as the four dominant predictors.\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/1750-3841.71320","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,4]],"date-time":"2026-08-04T07:43:52Z","timestamp":1785829432000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Machine Learning\u2010Based Prediction of Post\u2010Harvest Losses in Egyptian Strawberry Exports: Cold Chain Analytics, Shelf\u2010Life Estimation, and Export Rejection Risk Modeling"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"91","author":[{"given":"Wael M.","family":"Elmessery","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Agricultural Engineering Department Faculty of Agriculture Kafrelsheikh University  Kafrelsheikh Egypt"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9360-051X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Abdallah Elshawadfy","family":"Elwakeel","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Agricultural Engineering Department, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources Aswan University  Aswan Egypt"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Eldessoky S.","family":"Dessoky","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biology College of Science Taif University Taif Saudi Arabia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Atef Fathy","family":"Ahmed","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biology College of Science Taif University Taif Saudi Arabia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mahmoud Y.","family":"Shams","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Artificial Intelligence Kafrelsheikh University  Kafrelsheikh Egypt"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,4]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_13_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/87559129.2025.2541856"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/su16177803"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/agronomy12040963"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1010933404324"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Chen T. andC.Guestrin.2016. \u201cXGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System.\u201d InProceedings of the 22nd ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining 785\u2013794.","DOI":"10.1145\/2939672.2939785"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.fpsl.2025.101679"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fsufs.2023.1226583"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_9_1","unstructured":"EL\u2010Borai F. andV. M.Whitaker.2024.UF\/IFAS Strawberries beyond the USA: A Success Story from Egypt. UF\/IFAS Extension Publication HS1411 revised April 2024."},{"key":"e_1_2_13_10_1","unstructured":"FAO.2023.The State of Food and Agriculture 2023 Revealing the True Cost of Food to Transform Agrifood Systems. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations."},{"key":"e_1_2_13_11_1","unstructured":"HortiDaily.2024. \u201cDespite Inflation Climate Change Red Sea Crisis Egyptian Strawberries Remain Unaffected.\u201d Published 8 April 2024."},{"key":"e_1_2_13_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/app12178872"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s44163\u2010025\u201000645\u20107"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/foods13193025"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tifs.2021.03.052"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.fpsl.2024.101390"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.postharvbio.2020.111119"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/plants13050746"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ijfood\/vvaf010"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/plants13091200"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.fpsl.2025.101679"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/mpp.12794"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tifs.2025.104989"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/15538362.2019.1653810"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.postharvbio.2024.112799"}],"container-title":["Journal of Food Science"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/ift.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/1750-3841.71320","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/ift.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1111\/1750-3841.71320","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/ift.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/1750-3841.71320","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,29]],"date-time":"2026-08-29T04:24:32Z","timestamp":1787977472000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/ift.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/1750-3841.71320"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,8]]},"references-count":24,"journal-issue":{"issue":"8","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,8]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1111\/1750-3841.71320"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/1750-3841.71320","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0022-1147","1750-3841"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0022-1147","type":"print"},{"value":"1750-3841","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,8]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2026-04-08","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-07-08","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-08-04","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"e71320"}}