{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,18]],"date-time":"2026-08-18T00:42:26Z","timestamp":1787013746468,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":34,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"11","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,8,12]],"date-time":"2022-08-12T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1660262400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Int J of Rheum Dis"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2022,11]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Objective<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>To analyze the prevalence trend of Sj\u00f6gren's syndrome in the Department of Immunology and Rheumatology of Nanjing Zhongda Hospital from January 2015 to December 2019, and compare the application of SARIMA model and Holt\u2010Winters model in predicting the number of cases of Sj\u00f6gren's syndrome.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>All of the data from the Department of Immunology and Rheumatology of Nanjing Zhongda Hospital were collected. The number of monthly cases from January 2015 to December 2019 was regarded as the training set, and it was used to establish the SARIMA model and Holt\u2010Winters model. The number of monthly incidences from January 2020 to December 2020 was regarded as the test set, and it was used to check the model performance.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      The optimal model of SARIMA is ARIMA (0,1,1) (2,1,1)\n                      <jats:sub>12<\/jats:sub>\n                      model, and the optimal model of Holt\u2010Winters model is Holt\u2010Winters addition model. It was found that the Holt\u2010Winters addition model produced the smallest error.\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Holt\u2010Winters addition model produces better prediction accuracy of the model.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/1756-185x.14417","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,8,13]],"date-time":"2022-08-13T01:10:06Z","timestamp":1660353006000},"page":"1263-1269","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":11,"title":["Comparison of\n                    <scp>SARIMA<\/scp>\n                    model and\n                    <scp>Holt\u2010Winters<\/scp>\n                    model in predicting the incidence of Sj\u00f6gren's syndrome"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"25","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2726-6928","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Shuai","family":"Wang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health Southeast University  Nanjing China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Feiran","family":"Wei","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Rheumatology and Immunology ZhongDa Hospital  Nanjing China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Han","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health Southeast University  Nanjing China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zemin","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health Southeast 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