{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,26]],"date-time":"2026-06-26T17:50:42Z","timestamp":1782496242270,"version":"3.54.5"},"reference-count":22,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,8]],"date-time":"2026-06-08T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1780876800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":7,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,1]],"date-time":"2026-06-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1780272000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Transactions in GIS"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,6]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>This study proposes an integrated framework to analyze inferred multidimensional poverty\u2010exit potential in Tunisia using nationally representative MICS 2021 data. Because the data are cross\u2010sectional, the framework does not observe true household transitions over time. Instead, it constructs a continuous Fuzzy Poverty Exit Index (FPEI) that captures proxy evidence of partial progress away from multidimensional deprivation. The index is combined with a leakage\u2010controlled interpretation layer: XGBoost models predict high FPEI status, while SHAP attributions are computed using predictors that explicitly exclude all indicators used to construct the FPEI. To explore policy\u2010relevant heterogeneity, we estimate conditional effect heterogeneity with causal forests under standard unconfoundedness and overlap assumptions, interpreting the results as observational conditional estimates rather than definitive causal effects. We also derive a fuzzy clustering typology of exit\u2010potential profiles and provide a descriptive spatial diagnostic of regional disparities across Tunisian governorates. Results show that education, housing quality, asset accumulation, and territorial location are the strongest correlates of higher exit potential, with substantial heterogeneity across households and regions. Three profiles\u2014resilient, vulnerable, and structurally supported exit\u2010potential groups\u2014summarize the diversity and stability of observed conditions. The framework contributes to multidimensional poverty measurement by combining fuzzy scoring, explainable prediction, heterogeneity analysis, and spatial diagnostics, offering practical guidance for geographically targeted and multisectoral anti\u2010poverty policy.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/tgis.70311","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,8]],"date-time":"2026-06-08T10:06:06Z","timestamp":1780913166000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Modeling Multidimensional and Spatial Poverty\u2010Exit Potential With Fuzzy Logic and Explainable Machine Learning: Evidence From Tunisia"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"30","author":[{"given":"Besma","family":"Belhadj","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"LAREQUAD, FSEGT University of Tunis ElManar  Tunis Tunisia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Fethi","family":"Amri","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Unit of Research 3E, ISGGabes University of Gabes  Gabes Tunisia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0002-1309-8433","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mohamed Amine","family":"Fridhi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Paris School of Business  Paris France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0931-1134","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Bechir","family":"Fridhi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Financial Management, College of Business Administration Majmaah University  Al\u2010Majma'ah Saudi Arabia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,8]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_12_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11205\u2010021\u201002864\u20106"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jpubeco.2010.11.006"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.worlddev.2015.02.011"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev\u2010economics\u2010080217\u2010053433"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1353\/obs.2019.0002"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/00220380008422652"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10260\u2010007\u20100062\u20108"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01969727308546047"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aac4420"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.foodpol.2015.03.008"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-642-84250-4_18"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.18235\/0002811"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/00220380008422661"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aaf7894"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.fss.2025.109717"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11205\u2010025\u201003773\u2010w"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-0-387-34251-1"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_19_1","first-page":"30","volume-title":"Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems","author":"Lundberg S. M.","year":"2017"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_20_1","volume-title":"Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS6) \u2013 Tunisia 2021, Final Report and Datasets","author":"UNICEF","year":"2021"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.2017.1319839"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/34.85677"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0019\u20109958(65)90241\u2010X"}],"container-title":["Transactions in GIS"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/tgis.70311","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1111\/tgis.70311","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/tgis.70311","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,26]],"date-time":"2026-06-26T17:18:33Z","timestamp":1782494313000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/tgis.70311"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,6]]},"references-count":22,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,6]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1111\/tgis.70311"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/tgis.70311","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["1361-1682","1467-9671"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1361-1682","type":"print"},{"value":"1467-9671","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,6]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2025-10-09","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-05-28","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-06-08","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"e70311"}}