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In Scotland, national survey data indicate lower HCV incidence in prison than the community (4.3 versus 7.3 per 100 person\u2010years), but a 2.3\u2010fold elevated transmission risk among recently released (&lt;\u00a06\u00a0months) PWID. We evaluated the contribution of incarceration to HCV transmission among PWID and the impact of prison\u2010related prevention interventions, including scaling\u2010up direct\u2010acting antivirals (DAAs) in prison.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Design<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Dynamic mathematical modelling of incarceration and HCV transmission, using approximate Bayesian computation for model calibration.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Setting<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Scotland, UK.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Participants<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>A simulated population of PWID.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Measurements<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Population\u2010attributable fraction (PAF) of incarceration to HCV transmission among PWID. Decrease in HCV incidence and chronic prevalence due to current levels of prison opiate substitution therapy (OST; 57% coverage) and HCV treatment, as well as scaling\u2010up DAAs in prison and\/or preventing the elevated risk associated with prison release.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Findings<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Incarceration contributes 27.7% [PAF; 95% credible interval (CrI) \u20133.1 to 51.1%] of HCV transmission among PWID in Scotland. During the next 15\u00a0years, current HCV treatment rates (10.4\/6.8 per 1000 incarcerated\/community PWID annually), with existing prison OST, could reduce incidence and chronic prevalence among all PWID by a relative 10.7% (95% CrI\u00a0=\u00a08.4\u201313.3%) and 9.7% (95% CrI\u00a0=\u00a07.7\u201312.1%), respectively. Conversely, without prison OST, HCV incidence and chronic prevalence would decrease by 3.1% (95% CrI\u00a0=\u00a0\u201328.5 to 18.0%) and 4.7% (95% CrI\u00a0=\u00a0\u201311.3 to 14.5%). Additionally, preventing the heightened risk among recently released PWID could reduce incidence and chronic prevalence by 45.0% (95% CrI\u00a0=\u00a019.7\u201357.5%) and 33.3% (95% CrI\u00a0=\u00a015.6\u201343.6%) or scaling\u2010up prison HCV treatments to 80% of chronic PWID prison entrants with sufficient sentences (&gt;16\u00a0weeks) could reduce incidence and prevalence by 45.6% (95% CrI\u00a0=\u00a038.0\u201351.3%) and 45.5% (95% CrI\u00a0=\u00a039.3\u201351.0%), respectively.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Incarceration and the elevated transmission risk following prison release can contribute significantly to hepatitis C virus transmission among people who inject drugs. Scaling\u2010up hepatitis C virus treatment in prison can provide important prevention benefits.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/add.13783","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2017,3,3]],"date-time":"2017-03-03T18:22:41Z","timestamp":1488565361000},"page":"1302-1314","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":87,"title":["Modelling the impact of incarceration and prison\u2010based hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment on HCV transmission among people who inject drugs in Scotland"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"112","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4584-0068","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jack","family":"Stone","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Social and Community Medicine University of Bristol, Bristol  UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Natasha K.","family":"Martin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Social and Community Medicine University of Bristol, Bristol  UK"},{"name":"Division of Global Public Health University of California San Diego  San Diego CA USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Matthew","family":"Hickman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Social and Community Medicine University of Bristol, Bristol  UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sharon J.","family":"Hutchinson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Health and Life Sciences Glasgow Caledonian University, Glasgow  UK"},{"name":"Health Protection Scotland  Glasgow UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Esther","family":"Aspinall","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Health and Life Sciences Glasgow Caledonian University, Glasgow  UK"},{"name":"Health Protection Scotland  Glasgow UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Avril","family":"Taylor","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Media, Culture and Society University of the West of Scotland, Paisley  UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Alison","family":"Munro","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Media, Culture and Society University of the West of Scotland, Paisley  UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Karen","family":"Dunleavy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Media, Culture and Society University of the West of Scotland, Paisley  UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Erica","family":"Peters","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Gartnavel General Hospital  Glasgow UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Peter","family":"Bramley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"NHS Forth Valley Viral Hepatitis Service, Stirling  UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Peter C.","family":"Hayes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Health Sciences Royal Infirmary Edinburgh, Edinburgh  UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"David J.","family":"Goldberg","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Health and Life Sciences Glasgow Caledonian University, Glasgow  UK"},{"name":"Health Protection Scotland  Glasgow UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Peter","family":"Vickerman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Social and Community Medicine University of Bristol, Bristol  UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2017,3,3]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_5_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/jvh.12123"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(05)70216-4"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(11)61097-0"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1758-2652-14-26"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_6_1","unstructured":"World Health Organization United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime Joint United Nations Programme on HIV\/AIDS (WHO\/UNODC\/UNAIDS).Effectiveness of interventions to address HIV in prisons (evidence for action technical paper). 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