{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,3]],"date-time":"2026-09-03T18:21:45Z","timestamp":1788459705288,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":51,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"10","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,3,27]],"date-time":"2021-03-27T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1616803200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,3,27]],"date-time":"2021-03-27T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1616803200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Addiction"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,10]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Globally, heroin and other opioids account for more than half of deaths and years\u2010of\u2010life\u2010lost due to drug use and comprise one of the four major markets for illegal drugs. Having sound estimates of the number of problematic heroin users is fundamental to formulating sound health and criminal justice policies. Researchers and policymakers rely heavily upon general population surveys (GPS), such as the US National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), to estimate heroin use, without confronting their limitations. GPS\u2010based estimates are also ubiquitous for cocaine and methamphetamine, so insights pertaining to GPS for estimating heroin use are also relevant for those drug markets.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Analysis<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Four sources of potential errors in NSDUH are assessed: selective non\u2010response, small sample size, sampling frame omissions and under\u2010reporting. An alternative estimate drawing on a variety of sources including a survey of adult male arrestees is presented and explained. Other approaches to prevalence estimation are discussed.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Findings<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Under\u2010reporting and selective non\u2010response in NSDUH are likely to lead to substantial underestimation. Small sample size leads to imprecise estimates and erratic year\u2010to\u2010year fluctuations. The alternative estimate provides credible evidence that NSDUH underestimates the number of frequent heroin users by at least three\u2010quarters and perhaps much more.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Implications<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>GPS, even those as strong as NSDUH, are doomed by their nature to estimate poorly a rare and stigmatized behavior concentrated in a hard\u2010to\u2010track population. Although many European nations avoid reliance upon these surveys, many others follow the US model. Better estimation requires models that draw upon a variety of data sources, including GPS, to provide credible estimates. Recent methodological developments in selected countries can provide guidance. Journals should require researchers to critically assess the soundness of GPS estimates for any stigmatized drug\u2010related behaviors with low prevalence rates.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/add.15458","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,3,2]],"date-time":"2021-03-02T10:00:12Z","timestamp":1614679212000},"page":"2600-2609","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":120,"title":["Heroin use cannot be measured adequately with a general population survey"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"116","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7809-0849","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Peter","family":"Reuter","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Maryland, Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice College Park  MD USA"},{"name":"University of Maryland, School of Public Policy College Park  MD USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7748-9989","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jonathan P.","family":"Caulkins","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Carnegie Mellon University Heinz College of Information Systems and Public Policy  Pittsburgh PA USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2038-2950","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Greg","family":"Midgette","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Maryland, Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice College Park  MD USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,3,27]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_8_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S2215-0366(18)30337-7"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_3_1","volume-title":"European Drug Report 2020: Key Issues","author":"European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction","year":"2020"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7249\/RR3140"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.18356\/c8bbbf82-en"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMra1508490"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.addbeh.2017.01.011"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_8_1","volume-title":"Testimony on Addressing the Opioid Crisis in America: Prevention, Treatment, and Recovery before the Senate Subcommittee","author":"McCance\u2010Katz E.","year":"2017"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_9_1","volume-title":"Facing Addiction in America: The Surgeon General's Report on Alcohol, Drugs, and Health","author":"Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (US)","year":"2016"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/add.14383"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_11_1","volume-title":"2016 National Survey on Drug Use and Health Public Use File","author":"Center for Behavioral Health Statistics and Quality","year":"2017"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(19)32229-9"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7249\/RR534"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_14_1","volume-title":"National Drug Control Strategy [internet]","year":"2016"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_15_1","volume-title":"Redesigning an Ongoing National Household Survey: Methodological Issues","author":"Gfroerer J. C.","year":"2002"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/9781316388563"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1515\/9781400837410"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/002204269502500107"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/e637122007-001"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1155\/2014\/923290"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_21_1","volume-title":"Nonresponse in Social Science Surveys: A Research Agenda","author":"National Research Council","year":"2013"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_22_1","first-page":"273","article-title":"Studies of nonresponse and measurement error in the National Household Survey on drug abuse","volume":"167","author":"Gfroerer J.","year":"1997","journal-title":"Nat Inst Drug Abuse Res Monogr"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11121-019-01068-4"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_24_1","volume-title":"The CBHSQ Report","author":"Lipari R. N","year":"2013"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.aje.a009740"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.evalprogplan.2009.08.004"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0022042615589406"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_28_1","volume-title":"CBHSQ Data Review","author":"Lattimore P. K.","year":"2012"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/add.12628"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/002204260003000108"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/07418820200095321"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_32_1","volume-title":"What America's Users Spend on Illegal Drugs, 2000\u20132010, Technical Report","author":"Kilmer B.","year":"2014"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7249\/RR3140"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_34_1","volume-title":"Treatment Episode Data Set\u2014Admissions (TEDS\u2010A), 2013 Codebook","author":"Center for Behavioral Health Statistics and Quality","year":"2015"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_35_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/add.14144"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_36_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jpeds.2015.04.071"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_37_1","first-page":"321","volume-title":"Informing America's Policy on Illegal Drugs: What We Don't Know Keeps Hurting Us","author":"Pepper J. V.","year":"2001"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_38_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/2330443X.2018.1513346"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_39_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.drugalcdep.2011.08.008"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_40_1","unstructured":"National Drug Control Strategy. Washington DC: Office of National Drug Control Policy;1989. Available at:https:\/\/www.ncjrs.gov\/pdffiles1\/ondcp\/119466.pdf(accessed 12 March 2021)."},{"key":"e_1_2_8_41_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1745-9133.12363"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_42_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.18356\/a4dd519a-en"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_43_1","volume-title":"European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction (EMCDDA). Wastewater Analysis and Drugs: a European Multi\u2010City Study","year":"2018"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_44_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.drugalcdep.2016.02.003"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_45_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/dar.13148"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_46_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/dar.13164"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_47_1","volume-title":"Estimating the size of the fentanyl market in British Columbia. Report to the Cullen Commission","author":"Bouchard M.","year":"2020"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_48_1","volume-title":"Drug Use Monitoring in Australia (DUMA): a Brief Description","author":"Makkai T.","year":"1999"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_49_1","volume-title":"Community Drug Early Warning System: The CDEWS\u20102 Replication Study","author":"Wish E. D.","year":"2015"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_50_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/add.15111"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_51_1","first-page":"477","article-title":"The use of external data sources and ratio estimation to improve estimates of hardcore drug use from the NHSDA","volume":"167","author":"Wright D.","year":"1997","journal-title":"NIDA Res Monogr"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_52_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2458-12-443"}],"container-title":["Addiction"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/add.15458","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1111\/add.15458","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/add.15458","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,9]],"date-time":"2026-06-09T07:23:08Z","timestamp":1780989788000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/add.15458"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,3,27]]},"references-count":51,"journal-issue":{"issue":"10","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,10]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1111\/add.15458"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/add.15458","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0965-2140","1360-0443"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0965-2140","type":"print"},{"value":"1360-0443","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,3,27]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2020-08-21","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2021-02-18","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2021-03-27","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}