{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,4]],"date-time":"2026-09-04T17:58:17Z","timestamp":1788544697524,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":57,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"8","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,3,21]],"date-time":"2023-03-21T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1679356800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000155","name":"Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["435\u20102021\u20100809"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["435\u20102021\u20100809"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000155","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Addiction"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,8]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Background and Aims<\/jats:title><jats:p>Participating in online gambling is associated with an increased risk for experiencing gambling\u2010related harms, driving calls for more effective, personalized harm prevention initiatives. Such initiatives depend on the development of models capable of detecting at\u2010risk online gamblers. We aimed to determine whether machine learning algorithms can use site data to detect retrospectively at\u2010risk online gamblers indicated by the Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI).<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Design<\/jats:title><jats:p>Exploratory comparison of six prominent supervised machine learning methods (decision trees, random forests, K\u2010nearest neighbours, logistic regressions, artificial neural networks and support vector machines) to predict problem gambling risk levels reported on the PGSI.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Setting<\/jats:title><jats:p><jats:ext-link xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" xlink:href=\"http:\/\/Lotoquebec.com\">Lotoquebec.com<\/jats:ext-link> (formerly <jats:ext-link xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" xlink:href=\"http:\/\/espacejeux.com\">espacejeux.com<\/jats:ext-link>), an online gambling platform operated by Loto\u2010Qu\u00e9bec (a provincial Crown Corporation) in Quebec, Canada.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Participants<\/jats:title><jats:p><jats:italic>N<\/jats:italic>\u2009=\u20099145 adults (18+) who completed the survey measure and placed at least one bet using real money on the site.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Measurements<\/jats:title><jats:p>Participants completed the PGSI, a self\u2010report questionnaire with validated cut\u2010offs denoting a moderate\u2010to\u2010high\u2010risk (PGSI 5+) or high\u2010risk (PGSI 8+) for experiencing past\u2010year gambling\u2010related problems. Participants agreed to release additional data about the preceding 12\u2009months from their user accounts. Predictor variables (144) were derived from users\u2019 transactions, apparent betting behaviours, listed demographics and use of responsible gambling tools on the platform.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Findings<\/jats:title><jats:p>Our best classification models (random forests) for the PGSI 5+ and 8+ outcome variables accounted for 84.33% (95% CI = 82.24\u201386.41) and 82.52% (95% CI = 79.96\u201385.08) of the total area under their receiver operating characteristic curves, respectively. The most important factors in these models included the frequency and variability of participants\u2019 betting behaviour and repeat engagement on the site.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title><jats:p>Machine learning algorithms appear to be able to classify at\u2010risk online gamblers using data generated from their use of online gambling platforms. They may enable personalized harm prevention initiatives, but are constrained by trade\u2010offs between their sensitivity and precision.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/add.16179","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,3,7]],"date-time":"2023-03-07T08:25:07Z","timestamp":1678177507000},"page":"1569-1578","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":29,"title":["Using machine learning to retrospectively predict self\u2010reported gambling problems in Quebec"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"118","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2780-3578","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"W. Spencer","family":"Murch","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Sociology and Anthropology Concordia University  Montreal Quebec Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8788-4456","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sylvia","family":"Kairouz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Sociology and Anthropology Concordia University  Montreal Quebec Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sophie","family":"Dauphinais","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Sociology and Anthropology Concordia University  Montreal Quebec Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Elyse","family":"Picard","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Sociology and Anthropology Concordia University  Montreal Quebec Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9091-5292","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jean\u2010Michel","family":"Costes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Sociology and Anthropology Concordia University  Montreal Quebec Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Martin","family":"French","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Sociology and Anthropology Concordia University  Montreal Quebec Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,3,21]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_10_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4309\/jgi.2021.47.17"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10899-018-9744-4"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.addbeh.2021.106968"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jbusres.2019.01.040"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1556\/2006.5.2016.023"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41572-019-0099-7"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5812\/ijhrba.30827"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s40429-015-0057-8"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_10_1","volume-title":"Review of electronic gaming machine pre\u2010commitment features: Limit setting","author":"Thomas A","year":"2016"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4309\/jgi.2021.47.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10899-009-9150-z"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10899-018-09818-9"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.polsoc.2008.07.005"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/14459795.2013.841721"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10899-008-9106-8"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10899-009-9118-z"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/a0033810"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/070674371005500204"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2017.18391"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7189\/jogh.08.020303"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/14459795.2016.1151913"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/14459795.2016.1158306"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/14459795.2020.1832132"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjopen-2018-022541"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/14459795.2014.980297"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10899-018-9743-5"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11469-010-9288-z"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/mpr.1510"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10899-022-10139-1"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_31_1","volume-title":"The Canadian Problem Gambling Index: Final report","author":"Ferris J","year":"2001"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10899-008-9107-7"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10899-012-9300-6"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11469-014-9515-0"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_35_1","volume-title":"R: A language and environment for statistical computing","author":"R Core Team","year":"2022"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_36_1","volume-title":"CARET: Classification and Regression Training","author":"Kuhn M","year":"2020"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_37_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.18637\/jss.v077.i01"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_38_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.18637\/jss.v011.i09"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_39_1","volume-title":"Recursive Partitioning and Regression Trees (rpart)","author":"Therneau T","year":"2019"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_40_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-0-387-21706-2"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_41_1","volume-title":"The Origins of Logistic Regression","author":"Cramer JS","year":"2002"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_42_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2986296"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_43_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/TIT.1967.1053964"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_44_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/5254.708428"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_45_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0042519"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_46_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4324\/9781003109396-5"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_47_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/ICDAR.1995.598994"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_48_1","volume-title":"Montr\u00e9al Declaration for a Responsible Development of Artificial Intelligence","author":"Montr\u00e9al Institute for Learning Algorithms","year":"2018"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_49_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-0-387-84858-7"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_50_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/1097-0142(1950)3:1<32::AID-CNCR2820030106>3.0.CO;2-3"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_51_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2105-12-77"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_52_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gheart.2013.01.001"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_53_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7326\/M18-1990"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_54_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/2041-210X.13140"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_55_1","volume-title":"Race After Technology","author":"Benjamin R","year":"2019"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_56_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.7803"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_57_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3115\/1072064.1072067"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_58_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1176\/appi.books.9780890425596"}],"container-title":["Addiction"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/add.16179","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1111\/add.16179","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/add.16179","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,8,19]],"date-time":"2023-08-19T21:34:54Z","timestamp":1692480894000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/add.16179"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2023,3,21]]},"references-count":57,"journal-issue":{"issue":"8","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,8]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1111\/add.16179"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/add.16179","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0965-2140","1360-0443"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0965-2140","type":"print"},{"value":"1360-0443","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2023,3,21]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2022-05-27","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2023-02-15","order":1,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2023-03-21","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}