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At least half of all tobacco cigarettes and most vapes in Australia are now purchased from an illicit market that exceeds the size of the combined Australian illicit markets for cannabis, cocaine, heroin and ecstasy (MDMA). An estimated $7 billion in tobacco excise and arson attacks on tobacco retailers have prompted large increases in law enforcement funding. Based on the experience from other illicit markets, increased enforcement will at best limit sales but at likely enormous social and economic cost and, specific to nicotine, constraining access to vapes and thus potentially leading to more smoking. New Zealand, which allows vapes to be sold as consumer products under public health\u2010oriented regulations, has shown a faster decline in the prevalence of cigarette smoking than Australia. It also has high tobacco taxes but a much smaller illicit tobacco market.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Punitive taxes on cigarettes and restricted access to lower\u2010risk nicotine products have diverted Australians who use nicotine into illicit markets and may also have increased cigarette smoking among young people. Australia should allow easier consumer access to less harmful alternative nicotine products to help bring the illicit tobacco and nicotine markets under better control.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/add.70428","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,21]],"date-time":"2026-04-21T07:05:46Z","timestamp":1776755146000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":9,"title":["Has Australia lost control of its tobacco and nicotine markets?"],"prefix":"10.1111","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0059-178X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ron","family":"Borland","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Psychology Deakin University  Burwood Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"James","family":"Martin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Humanities and Social Sciences Deakin University  Burwood Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Edward","family":"Jegasothy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health University of Sydney  Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ben","family":"Youdan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"ASH  Auckland New Zealand"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1984-0096","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Wayne","family":"Hall","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Centre for Youth Substance Use Research University of Queensland  Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,21]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_13_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1002\/9780470692479","volume-title":"Public health advocacy and tobacco control: making smoking history","author":"Chapman S","year":"2007"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_3_1","volume-title":"WHO report on the global Tobacco epidemic, 2023: protect people from Tobacco smoke","author":"World Health Organization","year":"2023"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_4_1","unstructured":"Illicit Tobacco and E\u2010cigarette Commissioner.Illicit Tobacco and E\u2010cigarette Commissioner report 2024\u201325. 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