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A sharp decline in the number of U.S. dairy farms and an increase in average herd sizes have accompanied exits, which have been concentrated among smaller herds. Given that more productive farms are better positioned to increase operation size and to continue operation, we hypothesize that the more technically efficient farms are better able to expand and also have stronger incentives to continue production. Using data from the USDA's 2010 ARMS Phase III, Dairy Production Practices and Costs and Returns Report, we estimate technical efficiency using stochastic production frontier analysis with endogenous inputs. The efficiency estimate is then incorporated into the analysis of exit intention and herd size. The results confirm our hypotheses that smaller and less efficient farms are more likely to exit and that more efficient dairy farms tend to expand herd size. Moreover, farms without successors but with older and more educated operators are more likely to exit.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/agec.12253","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2016,7,11]],"date-time":"2016-07-11T11:43:21Z","timestamp":1468237401000},"page":"533-545","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":59,"title":["Technical efficiency, herd size, and exit intentions in U.S. dairy farms"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"47","author":[{"given":"Fengxia","family":"Dong","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics University of Wisconsin\u2010Madison  Madison WI 53706 USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"David A.","family":"Hennessy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics Michigan State University  East Lansing MI 48824 USA"},{"name":"Department of Economics Iowa State University  Ames IA 50011 USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Helen H.","family":"Jensen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Economics Iowa State University  Ames IA 50011 USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Richard J.","family":"Volpe","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Agribusiness Department California Polytechnic State University  San Luis Obispo CA 93407 USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2016,7,11]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_9_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.104.6.1667"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0304-4076(77)90052-5"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3168\/jds.2008-1123"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jeconom.2015.06.013"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_6_1","unstructured":"Baker J.R. 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