{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,16]],"date-time":"2026-10-16T03:47:26Z","timestamp":1792122446110,"version":"4.4.0"},"reference-count":26,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,4,8]],"date-time":"2021-04-08T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1617840000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Agricultural Economics"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,5]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>This study assesses the\u00a0impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID\u201019) on poverty, food insecurity, and diets, accounting for the complex links between the crisis and the incomes and living costs of vulnerable households. Key elements are impacts on labor supply, effects of social distancing, shifts in demand from services involving close contact, increases in\u00a0the cost of logistics in food and other supply chains, and\u00a0reductions in savings\u00a0and investment.\u00a0These are examined using IFPRI's global general equilibrium model linked to epidemiological and household models.\u00a0The simulations suggest\u00a0that the\u00a0global recession\u00a0caused by COVID\u201019\u00a0will\u00a0be much deeper than that of the 2008\u20132009 financial crisis. The increases in poverty are concentrated in South Asia and sub\u2010Saharan Africa with impacts harder in urban areas than in rural. The\u00a0COVID\u201019\u2010related lockdown measures explain most of the fall in output, whereas\u00a0declines\u00a0in\u00a0savings\u00a0soften the adverse\u00a0impacts\u00a0on food consumption. Almost 150 million people are projected to fall into\u00a0extreme\u00a0poverty\u00a0and food insecurity.\u00a0Decomposition of the results shows that approaches assuming uniform income shocks would underestimate\u00a0the impact by as much as one\u2010third, emphasizing the need for the more refined approach of this study.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/agec.12624","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,4,8]],"date-time":"2021-04-08T16:00:38Z","timestamp":1617897638000},"page":"375-390","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":280,"title":["Impacts of COVID\u201019 on global poverty, food security, and diets: Insights from global model scenario analysis"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"52","author":[{"given":"David","family":"Laborde","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Markets, Trade and Institutions Division at IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute  Washington District of Columbia USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Will","family":"Martin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Markets, Trade and Institutions Division at IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute  Washington District of Columbia USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rob","family":"Vos","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Markets, Trade and Institutions Division at IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute  Washington District of Columbia USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,4,8]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_9_2_1","volume-title":"Asian development outlook 2020 update: Wellness in worrying times","author":"ADB.","year":"2020"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_3_1","volume-title":"The economics of food price volatility","author":"Anderson K.","year":"2014"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_4_1","volume-title":"Food and nutrition security in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia during COVID\u201019 Pandemic.","author":"Abate G.","year":"2020"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3386\/w26948"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_6_1","unstructured":"Google.(2020).Google COVID\u201019 Community mobility reports.https:\/\/www.google.com\/covid19\/mobility\/."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3386\/w27432"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.103.7.2935"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_9_1","volume-title":"ILO Monitor: COVID\u201019 and the world of work. 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An essay on entitlement and deprivation","author":"Sen A.","year":"1981"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.35188\/UNU-WIDER\/2020\/800-9"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2499\/p15738coll2.133762"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2499\/p15738coll2.133762_18"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_23_1","article-title":"How much will global poverty increase because of COVID\u201019?","author":"Vos R.","year":"2020","journal-title":"IFPRI Blog"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_24_1","volume-title":"The global impact of COVID\u201019 and strategies for mitigation and suppression","author":"Walker P.","year":"2020"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_25_1","article-title":"Assessing the economic impact of COVID\u201019 and policy responses in Sub\u2010Saharan Africa","author":"World Bank.","year":"2020","journal-title":"Africa's Pulse"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1596\/978-1-4648-1602-4"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1596\/33634"}],"container-title":["Agricultural Economics"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/agec.12624","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1111\/agec.12624","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/agec.12624","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,8,29]],"date-time":"2023-08-29T21:23:36Z","timestamp":1693344216000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/agec.12624"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,4,8]]},"references-count":26,"journal-issue":{"issue":"3","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,5]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1111\/agec.12624"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/agec.12624","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0169-5150","1574-0862"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0169-5150","type":"print"},{"value":"1574-0862","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,4,8]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2020-07-27","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2020-11-26","order":1,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2021-04-08","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}