{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,28]],"date-time":"2026-06-28T05:45:50Z","timestamp":1782625550243,"version":"3.54.5"},"reference-count":33,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"11","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,9,3]],"date-time":"2023-09-03T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1693699200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000265","name":"Medical Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000265","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000002","name":"National Institutes of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000002","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000883","name":"University of Bristol","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000883","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100010269","name":"Wellcome Trust","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100010269","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Allergy"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,11]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Background<\/jats:title><jats:p>Numerous risk scores have been developed to predict childhood asthma. However, they may not predict asthma beyond childhood. We aim to create childhood risk scores that predict development and persistence of asthma up to young adult life.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>The Isle of Wight Birth Cohort (<jats:italic>n<\/jats:italic>\u2009=\u20091456) was prospectively assessed up to 26\u2009years of age. Asthma predictive scores were developed based on factors during the first 4\u2009years, using logistic regression and tested for sensitivity, specificity and area under the curve (AUC) for prediction of asthma at (i) 18 and (ii) 26\u2009years, and persistent asthma (PA) (iii) at 10 and 18\u2009years, and (iv) at 10, 18 and 26\u2009years. Models were internally and externally validated.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>Four models were generated for prediction of each asthma outcome. ASthma PredIctive Risk scorE (ASPIRE)\u20101: a 2\u2010factor model (recurrent wheeze [RW] and positive skin prick test [+SPT] at 4\u2009years) for asthma at 18\u2009years (sensitivity: 0.49, specificity: 0.80, AUC: 0.65). ASPIRE\u20102: a 3\u2010factor model (RW, +SPT and maternal rhinitis) for asthma at 26\u2009years (sensitivity: 0.60, specificity: 0.79, AUC: 0.73). ASPIRE\u20103: a 3\u2010factor model (RW, +SPT and eczema at 4\u2009years) for PA\u201018 (sensitivity: 0.63, specificity: 0.87, AUC: 0.77). ASPIRE\u20104: a 3\u2010factor model (RW, +SPT at 4\u2009years and recurrent chest infection at 2\u2009years) for PA\u201026 (sensitivity: 0.68, specificity: 0.87, AUC: 0.80). ASPIRE\u20101 and ASPIRE\u20103 scores were replicated externally. Further assessments indicated that ASPIRE\u20101 can be used in place of ASPIRE\u20102\u20104 with same predictive accuracy.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title><jats:p>ASPIRE predicts persistent asthma up to young adult life.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/all.15876","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,9,4]],"date-time":"2023-09-04T03:49:31Z","timestamp":1693799371000},"page":"2969-2979","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":15,"title":["Prediction of adult asthma risk in early childhood using novel adult asthma predictive risk scores"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"78","author":[{"given":"Abdal J.","family":"Farhan","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"The David Hide Asthma and Allergy Research Centre St. Mary's Hospital  Isle of Wight UK"},{"name":"Clinical and Experimental Sciences, Faculty of Medicine University of Southampton  Southampton UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Dilini M.","family":"Kothalawala","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"NIHR Biomedical Research Centre University Hospital Southampton  Southampton UK"},{"name":"Human Development and Health, Faculty of Medicine University of Southampton  Southampton UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ramesh J.","family":"Kurukulaaratchy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The David Hide Asthma and Allergy Research Centre St. Mary's Hospital  Isle of Wight UK"},{"name":"Clinical and Experimental Sciences, Faculty of Medicine University of Southampton  Southampton UK"},{"name":"NIHR Biomedical Research Centre University Hospital Southampton  Southampton UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Raquel","family":"Granell","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"MRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School University of Bristol  Bristol UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Angela","family":"Simpson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Infection, Immunity and Respiratory Medicine, School of Biological Sciences The University of Manchester, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, and Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust  Manchester UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Clare","family":"Murray","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Infection, Immunity and Respiratory Medicine, School of Biological Sciences The University of Manchester, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, and Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust  Manchester UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Adnan","family":"Custovic","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Heart and Lung Institute Imperial College London  London UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2252-1248","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Graham","family":"Roberts","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The David Hide Asthma and Allergy Research Centre St. Mary's Hospital  Isle of Wight UK"},{"name":"Clinical and Experimental Sciences, Faculty of Medicine University of Southampton  Southampton UK"},{"name":"NIHR Biomedical Research Centre University Hospital Southampton  Southampton UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3557-0364","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Hongmei","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Environmental Health, School of Public Health University of Memphis  Memphis Tennessee USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5988-235X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"S. 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