{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,22]],"date-time":"2026-01-22T19:10:24Z","timestamp":1769109024731,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":8,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"11","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2015,4,24]],"date-time":"2015-04-24T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1429833600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["ANZ Journal of Surgery"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2016,11]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Background<\/jats:title><jats:p>It has been reported that three criteria (size of calculus \u22656\u2009mm, visual analogue scale pain score at discharge \u22652\u2009cm and location above mid\u2010ureter; the <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">P<\/jats:styled-content>apa criteria) were sensitive for predicting patients who require intervention (surgery or lithotripsy) within 28 days of index emergency department (<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">ED<\/jats:styled-content>) visit for ureteric colic. It was suggested that absence of these criteria identified a group for whom early follow\u2010up may not be needed. No validation has been reported. We aimed to validate these criteria.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>Retrospective cohort study of patients with clinical presentation of ureteric colic and radiologically proven renal tract stones. Data collected included demographics, clinical features, features of the stone, imaging results and 28\u2010day outcome. Outcome of interest was performance of the <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">P<\/jats:styled-content>apa criteria for prediction of urological intervention by clinical performance analysis. We also undertook a post hoc analysis to identify predictors of urological intervention for the group overall and for the subgroup discharged from <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">ED<\/jats:styled-content>.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>Two hundred and twenty\u2010four patients were studied (median age 49, 79% male) with 75 (33%) requiring urological intervention within 28 days. The presence of any of the <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">P<\/jats:styled-content>apa criteria had sensitivity for urological intervention of 83.9% (95% confidence interval (<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">CI<\/jats:styled-content>) 71.2\u201391.9%) with specificity of 47.7% (95% <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">CI<\/jats:styled-content> 38.9\u201356.6%), positive predictive value of 40.9% (95% <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">CI<\/jats:styled-content> 31.9\u201350.4%) and negative predictive value of 87.3% (95% CI 76.8\u201393.7%). Nine patients with no <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">P<\/jats:styled-content>apa criteria had intervention: 12.7% (95% <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">CI<\/jats:styled-content> 6.8\u201322.4%).<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title><jats:p>The <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">P<\/jats:styled-content>apa criteria are not sufficiently accurate to determine which patients require intervention or a subgroup who do not need specialist urological follow\u2010up.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/ans.13109","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2015,4,24]],"date-time":"2015-04-24T09:13:54Z","timestamp":1429866834000},"page":"930-933","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":12,"title":["Failed validation of risk prediction model for intervention in renal colic patients after emergency department evaluation"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"86","author":[{"given":"Tanya","family":"Dean","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Emergency Medicine Western Health  Melbourne Victoria Australia"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jack","family":"Crozier","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Western Health  Melbourne Victoria Australia"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Sharon","family":"Klim","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Joseph Epstein Centre for Emergency Medicine Research Western Health  Melbourne Victoria Australia"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Anne\u2010Maree","family":"Kelly","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Joseph Epstein Centre for Emergency Medicine Research Western Health  Melbourne Victoria Australia"},{"name":"The University of Melbourne  Parkville Victoria Australia"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2015,4,24]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_7_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1159\/000104434"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11255-005-3622-6"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S1481803500013026"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2214\/ajr.178.1.1780101"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4111\/kju.2011.52.12.847"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11255-011-9971-4"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4111\/kju.2013.54.9.615"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00240-013-0551-1"}],"container-title":["ANZ Journal of Surgery"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/api.wiley.com\/onlinelibrary\/tdm\/v1\/articles\/10.1111%2Fans.13109","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/ans.13109","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1111\/ans.13109","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/ans.13109","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,8,23]],"date-time":"2023-08-23T02:45:13Z","timestamp":1692758713000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/ans.13109"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2015,4,24]]},"references-count":8,"journal-issue":{"issue":"11","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2016,11]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1111\/ans.13109"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/ans.13109","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["1445-1433","1445-2197"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1445-1433","type":"print"},{"value":"1445-2197","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2015,4,24]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2015-03-08","order":1,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2015-04-24","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}