{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,9]],"date-time":"2026-10-09T13:55:14Z","timestamp":1791554114325,"version":"4.3.4"},"reference-count":29,"publisher":"Wiley","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,9]],"date-time":"2026-10-09T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1791504000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,9]],"date-time":"2026-10-09T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1791504000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Acta Ophthalmologica"],"abstract":"Abstract<\/jats:title>\n \n Purpose<\/jats:title>\n To assess the probability of myopic macular degeneration (MMD).<\/jats:p>\n <\/jats:sec>\n \n Methods<\/jats:title>\n \n The project included four population\u2010based investigations: Beijing Eye Study (BES) (\n n<\/jats:italic>\n \u2009=\u20093325; age: 50+\u2009years), Ural Eye and Medical Study (UEMS) (\n n<\/jats:italic>\n \u2009=\u20095586 participants; age: 40+\u2009years), Ural Very Old Study (UVOS) (\n n<\/jats:italic>\n \u2009=\u2009541;age: 85+ years) and Central India Eye and Medical Study (CIEMS) (\n n<\/jats:italic>\n \u2009=\u20094467; age: 30+\u2009years). MMD was defined according to the Meta\u2010analysis for Pathologic Myopia Study Group. Based on binary regression analyses, probability equations were formulated.\n <\/jats:p>\n <\/jats:sec>\n \n Results<\/jats:title>\n The total study population (27\u2009607 eyes; 14\u2009108 individuals) was randomly divided in a ratio of 1:1 into a development subgroup for the probability score development and into a validation subgroup. In the validation subgroup, the probability assessment for MMD stage 2+ and 3+ had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.996 and 0.998, respectively. Applying the probability equations, MMD stage 2+ probability for myope with an axial length of 28 and 30\u2009mm increased from age 30 to 75\u2009years from 55.0% to 88.1% and from 99.3% to 99.8%, respectively. MMD stage 3+ probability at an axial length of 28 and 30\u2009mm increased from age 30 to 75\u2009years from 8.3% to 57.5% and from 81.8% to 98.5%, respectively.<\/jats:p>\n <\/jats:sec>\n \n Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n The MMD probability assessment offers a rough estimate of the MMD probability at present and at older age, based on axial length and age. For an axial length of 28 and 30\u2009mm, the probability of MMD stage 3+ at 75\u2009years was 57.5% and 98.5%, respectively.<\/jats:p>\n <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/aos.70241","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,9]],"date-time":"2026-10-09T13:47:42Z","timestamp":1791553662000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Probability of myopic macular degeneration in dependence on axial length and age: The two\u2010continent eye study"],"prefix":"10.1111","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2972-5227","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jost B.","family":"Jonas","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Rothschild Foundation Hospital Paris France"},{"name":"Singapore Eye Research Institute, Singapore National Eye Center Singapore Singapore"},{"name":"Beijing Visual Science and Translational Eye Research Institute (BERI), Beijing Tsinghua Changgung Hospital, Tsinghua Medicine Tsinghua University Beijing China"},{"name":"L V Prasad Eye Institute Hyderabad Telangana India"},{"name":"Department of Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences The Chinese University of Hong Kong Hong Kong China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5389-3047","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Rahul A.","family":"Jonas","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"L V Prasad Eye Institute Hyderabad Telangana India"},{"name":"Department of Ophthalmology, Faculty of Medicine, University Hospital Cologne University of Cologne Cologne Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mukharram M.","family":"Bikbov","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Ufa Eye Research Institute Bashkir State Medical University Ufa Russian Federation"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Gyulli M.","family":"Kazakbaeva","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Ufa Eye Research Institute Bashkir State Medical University Ufa Russian Federation"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ellina M.","family":"Iakupova","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Ufa Eye Research Institute Bashkir State Medical University Ufa Russian Federation"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ya Xing","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Beijing Visual Science and Translational Eye Research Institute (BERI), Beijing Tsinghua Changgung Hospital, Tsinghua Medicine Tsinghua University Beijing China"},{"name":"Beijing Institute of Ophthalmology, Beijing Tongren Hospital, Beijing Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences Key Laboratory Capital Medical University Beijing China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Vinay","family":"Nangia","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Suraj Eye Institute Nagpur India"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Songhomitra","family":"Panda\u2010Jonas","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Rothschild Foundation Hospital Paris France"},{"name":"L V Prasad Eye Institute Hyderabad Telangana India"},{"name":"Privatpraxis Prof Jonas und Dr. Panda\u2010Jonas Heidelberg Germany"},{"name":"Department of Ophthalmology University Hospital Heidelberg Heidelberg Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,9]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_7_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"6","DOI":"10.25276\/2410-1257-2022-1-6-11","article-title":"Axial length of the eye in the elderly population of the southern Urals (according to the study Ural very old study)","volume":"1","author":"Bikbov M.M.","year":"2022","journal-title":"Point of View. East\u2010West"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1001\/jamanetworkopen.2020.0567","article-title":"Prevalence of myopic maculopathy among adults in a Russian population","volume":"3","author":"Bikbov M.M.","year":"2020","journal-title":"JAMA Network Open"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_4_1","first-page":"1174","article-title":"Prevalence and associations of non\u2010glaucomatous optic nerve atrophy in high myopia. The Ural eye and medical study","volume":"130","author":"Bikbov M.M.","year":"2023","journal-title":"Ophthalmology. 2023"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1001\/jamanetworkopen.2021.21138","article-title":"Prevalence factors associated with vision impairment and blindness among individuals 85\u2009years and older in Russia","volume":"4","author":"Bikbov M.M.","year":"2021","journal-title":"JAMA Network Open"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1167\/iovs.65.13.49","article-title":"Adult myopia progression","volume":"65","author":"Brennan N.A.","year":"2024","journal-title":"Investigative Ophthalmology & Visual Science"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1167\/iovs.65.6.40","article-title":"Forecasting myopic maculopathy risk over a decade: development and validation of an interpretable machine learning algorithm","volume":"65","author":"Chen Y.","year":"2024","journal-title":"Investigative Ophthalmology & Visual Science"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1096","DOI":"10.1001\/jamaophthalmol.2021.3303","article-title":"Continued increase of axial length and its risk factors in adults with high myopia","volume":"139","author":"Du R.","year":"2021","journal-title":"JAMA Ophthalmology"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"863","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ophtha.2017.12.005","article-title":"Progression of myopic maculopathy during 18\u2010year follow\u2010up","volume":"125","author":"Fang Y.","year":"2018","journal-title":"Ophthalmology"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"721","DOI":"10.1136\/bjo-2024-326116","article-title":"Prevalence and risk factors of myopic macular degeneration: the Aier\u2010SERI high myopia adult cohort","volume":"109","author":"Foo L.L.","year":"2025","journal-title":"British Journal of Ophthalmology"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1363","DOI":"10.1136\/bjophthalmol-2021-321046","article-title":"Predictors of myopic macular degeneration in a 12\u2010year longitudinal study of Singapore adults with myopia","volume":"107","author":"Foo L.L.","year":"2023","journal-title":"British Journal of Ophthalmology"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"89","DOI":"10.1111\/opo.13416","article-title":"Cross\u2010population validation of the PreMO risk indicator for predicting myopia onset in children","volume":"45","author":"Fulton J.M.","year":"2025","journal-title":"Ophthalmic and Physiological Optics"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"115","DOI":"10.1001\/jamaophthalmol.2021.5346","article-title":"Prevalence of myopic macular features in Dutch individuals of European ancestry with high myopia","volume":"140","author":"Haarman A.E.G.","year":"2022","journal-title":"JAMA Ophthalmology"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"669","DOI":"10.1097\/IAE.0000000000003383","article-title":"Prevalence and characteristics of multifocal choroiditis\/punctate inner choroidopathy in pathologic myopia eyes with patchy atrophy","volume":"42","author":"Hady S.K.","year":"2022","journal-title":"Retina"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"867","DOI":"10.1016\/j.oret.2019.04.023","article-title":"Association between axial length and myopic maculopathy: the Hisayama study","volume":"3","author":"Hashimoto S.","year":"2019","journal-title":"Ophthalmology Retina"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e399","DOI":"10.1111\/aos.13301","article-title":"Prevalence of myopic retinopathy in rural Central India","volume":"95","author":"Jonas J.B.","year":"2017","journal-title":"Acta Ophthalmologica"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"890","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ophtha.2022.03.022","article-title":"The potential of current polygenic risk scores to predict high myopia and myopic macular degeneration in multiethnic Singapore adults","volume":"129","author":"Kassam I.","year":"2022","journal-title":"Ophthalmology"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1167\/tvst.10.8.26","article-title":"New polygenic risk score to predict high myopia in Singapore Chinese children","volume":"10","author":"Lanca C.","year":"2021","journal-title":"Translational Vision Science & Technology"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"873","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1755-3768.1971.tb05939.x","article-title":"The sagittal growth of the eye. IV. Ultrasonic measurement of the axial length of the eye from birth to puberty","volume":"49","author":"Larsen J.S.","year":"1971","journal-title":"Acta Ophthalmologica"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-023-35696-2","article-title":"Myopia progression risk assessment score (MPRAS): a promising new tool for risk stratification","volume":"13","author":"Manoharan M.K.","year":"2023","journal-title":"Scientific Reports"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1739","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(12)60272-4","article-title":"Myopia","volume":"379","author":"Morgan I.G.","year":"2012","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"877","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ajo.2015.01.022","article-title":"International photographic classification and grading system for myopic maculopathy","volume":"159","author":"Ohno\u2010Matsui K.","year":"2015","journal-title":"American Journal of Ophthalmology"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"495","DOI":"10.1007\/s00417-012-2066-9","article-title":"Changes of axial length measured by IOL master during 2\u2009years in eyes of adults with pathologic myopia","volume":"251","author":"Saka N.","year":"2013","journal-title":"Graefe's Archive for Clinical and Experimental Ophthalmology"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"562","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ajo.2010.05.009","article-title":"Long\u2010term changes in axial length in adult eyes with pathologic myopia","volume":"150","author":"Saka N.","year":"2010","journal-title":"American Journal of Ophthalmology"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1355","DOI":"10.1001\/jamaophthalmol.2016.4009","article-title":"Association of axial length with risk of uncorrectable visual impairment for Europeans with myopia","volume":"134","author":"Tideman J.W.","year":"2016","journal-title":"JAMA Ophthalmology"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"935","DOI":"10.1136\/bjophthalmol-2021-320644","article-title":"High myopia as risk factor in the 10\u2010year incidence of open\u2010angle glaucoma in the Beijing eye study","volume":"107","author":"Wang Y.X.","year":"2023","journal-title":"British Journal of Ophthalmology"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1167\/iovs.61.4.14","article-title":"Six\u2010year changes in myopic macular degeneration in adults of the Singapore epidemiology of eye diseases study","volume":"61","author":"Wong Y.L.","year":"2020","journal-title":"Investigative Ophthalmology & Visual Science"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_28_1","first-page":"1253","article-title":"Ten\u2010year progression of myopic maculopathy: the Beijing eye study 2001\u20102011","volume":"125","author":"Yan Y.N.","year":"2018","journal-title":"Ophthalmology"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_29_1","first-page":"415","article-title":"Diagnosis and treatment of myopic maculopathy","volume":"7","author":"Yokoi T.","year":"2018","journal-title":"Asia\u2010Pacific Journal of Ophthalmology (Phila)"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1748","DOI":"10.1136\/bjophthalmol-2019-315298","article-title":"Prevalence of myopic macular degeneration worldwide: a systematic review and meta\u2010analysis","volume":"104","author":"Zou M.","year":"2020","journal-title":"British Journal of Ophthalmology"}],"container-title":["Acta Ophthalmologica"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/aos.70241","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1111\/aos.70241","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/aos.70241","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,9]],"date-time":"2026-10-09T13:47:46Z","timestamp":1791553666000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/aos.70241"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,9]]},"references-count":29,"alternative-id":["10.1111\/aos.70241"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/aos.70241","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["1755-375X","1755-3768"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1755-375X","type":"print"},{"value":"1755-3768","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,9]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2026-04-04","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-09-05","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-10-09","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"aos.70241"}}