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This study applied machine learning to four\u2010wave longitudinal data from 5019 Chinese adolescents (ages 9\u201319) to identify the key predictors of PYD at T4 (controlling for prior PYD at T3), measured by the Chinese 4Cs model (Character, Competence, Confidence, Connection). We compared 12 algorithms; CatBoost achieved the best prediction (\u2009=\u2009.816). SHAP analysis identified school psychological climate, depression, and parental loneliness as the top three predictors. Heterogeneity analyses revealed an age gradient: School climate dominated for primary and middle school students, whereas parental loneliness dominated for high school students. Student type analyses uncovered three distinct developmental pathways: an aspirational pathway characterized by social mobility belief for migrant children, a relational pathway characterized by parental loneliness for left\u2010behind and urban children, and a clinical pathway characterized by depression for rural ordinary children. These findings provide empirical support for differentiated, context\u2010sensitive intervention strategies targeting PYD across diverse Chinese adolescent populations.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/aphw.70211","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,5]],"date-time":"2026-09-05T06:21:37Z","timestamp":1788589297000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Predicting positive youth development among Chinese adolescents: A machine learning approach using multiwave longitudinal data"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"18","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2808-2250","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Zelin","family":"Liu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Developmental Psychology Beijing Normal University  Beijing China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8015-3071","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Z\u00e9kai","family":"Lu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Developmental Psychology Beijing Normal University  Beijing China"},{"name":"Department of Sociology McGill University  Montr\u00e9al Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0330-3432","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Yaqiong","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Psychology Hangzhou Normal University  Hangzhou China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3755-1730","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Danhua","family":"Lin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Developmental Psychology Beijing Normal University  Beijing China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,4]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_11_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0278-6133.19.6.586"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/17408989.2023.2230208"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0143034317734416"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/02673843.2022.2147442"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"33","DOI":"10.4135\/9781446213803.n2","volume-title":"Approaches to positive youth development","author":"Benson P. 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