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Bootstrap resampling was used to internally validate the individual factors and overall model performance. The mean of the estimated regression coefficients from 400 bootstrap models was used to derive a risk score for 5\u2010year mortality.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>The multinational cohort was composed of 232 patients diagnosed with refractory coeliac disease across seven centres (range of 11\u201363 cases per centre). The median age was 53\u00a0years and 150 (64%) were women. A total of 51 subjects died during a 5\u2010year follow\u2010up (cumulative 5\u2010year all\u2010cause mortality\u00a0=\u00a030%). From a multiple variable Cox proportional hazards model, the following variables were significantly associated with 5\u2010year mortality: age at refractory coeliac disease diagnosis (per 20\u00a0year increase, hazard ratio\u00a0=\u00a02.21; 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.38\u20133.55), abnormal intraepithelial lymphocytes (hazard ratio\u00a0=\u00a02.85; 95% CI: 1.22\u20136.62), and albumin (per 0.5 unit increase, hazard ratio\u00a0=\u00a00.72; 95% CI: 0.61\u20130.85). A simple weighted three\u2010factor risk score was created to estimate 5\u2010year survival.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title><jats:p>Using data from a multinational registry and previously reported risk factors, we create a prognostic model to predict 5\u2010year mortality among patients with refractory coeliac disease. This new model may help clinicians to guide treatment and follow\u2010up.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/apt.13755","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2016,8,3]],"date-time":"2016-08-03T12:09:11Z","timestamp":1470226151000},"page":"704-714","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":46,"title":["Creation of a model to predict survival in patients with refractory coeliac disease using a multinational registry"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"44","author":[{"given":"A.","family":"Rubio\u2010Tapia","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Mayo Clinic Rochester MN USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"G.","family":"Malamut","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Hopital Europeen Georges\u2010Pompidou Paris France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"W. H. 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