{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,25]],"date-time":"2026-03-25T02:56:24Z","timestamp":1774407384986,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":27,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"7","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,2,13]],"date-time":"2019-02-13T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1550016000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"funder":[{"name":"General Research Fund - Research Grant Council","award":["477213"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["477213"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Aliment Pharmacol Ther"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2019,4]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Summary<\/jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Background<\/jats:title><jats:p>Patients with a history of <jats:italic>Helicobacter pylori<\/jats:italic>\u2013negative idiopathic bleeding ulcers have an increased risk of recurring ulcer complications.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Aim<\/jats:title><jats:p>To build a machine learning model to identify patients at high risk for recurrent ulcer bleeding.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>Data from a retrospective cohort of 22\u00a0854 patients (training cohort) diagnosed with peptic ulcer disease in 2007\u20102016 were analysed to build a model (IPU\u2010ML) to predict recurrent ulcer bleeding. We tested the IPU\u2010ML in all patients with a diagnosis of gastrointestinal bleeding (n\u00a0=\u00a01265) in 2008\u20102015 from a different catchment population (independent validation cohort). Any co\u2010morbid conditions which had occurred in &gt;1% of study population were eligible as predictors.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>Recurrent ulcer bleeding developed in 4772 patients (19.5%) in the training cohort, during a median follow\u2010up period of 2.7\u00a0years. IPU\u2010ML model built on six parameters (age, baseline haemoglobin, and presence of gastric ulcer, gastrointestinal diseases, malignancies, and infections) identified patients with bleeding recurrence within 1\u00a0year with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.648. When we set the IPU\u2010ML cutoff value\u00a0at 0.20,\u00a027.5% of patients were classified\u00a0as high risk for rebleeding with a sensitivity of 41.4%, specificity of 74.6%, and a negative predictive value of 91.1%. In the validation cohort, the IPU\u2010ML identified patients with a recurrence ulcer bleeding within 1\u00a0year with an AUROC of 0.775, and 84.3% of overall accuracy.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title><jats:p>We developed a machine\u2010learning model to identify those patients with a history of idiopathic gastroduodenal ulcer bleeding who are not at high risk for recurrent ulcer bleeding.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/apt.15145","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,2,14]],"date-time":"2019-02-14T07:54:59Z","timestamp":1550130899000},"page":"912-918","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":50,"title":["Machine learning model to predict recurrent ulcer bleeding in patients with history of idiopathic gastroduodenal ulcer bleeding"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"49","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2863-9389","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Grace Lai\u2010Hung","family":"Wong","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Digestive Disease The Chinese University of Hong Kong Hong Kong China"},{"name":"Department of Medicine and Therapeutics The Chinese University of Hong Kong Hong Kong China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Andy Jinhua","family":"Ma","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Computer Science Hong Kong Baptist University Hong Kong China"},{"name":"School of Data and Computer Science Sun Yat\u2010Sen University Guangzhou China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Huiqi","family":"Deng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Computer Science Hong Kong Baptist University Hong Kong China"},{"name":"School of Mathematics Sun Yat\u2010Sen University Guangzhou China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jessica Yuet\u2010Ling","family":"Ching","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Digestive Disease The Chinese University of Hong Kong Hong Kong China"},{"name":"Department of Medicine and Therapeutics The Chinese University of Hong Kong Hong Kong China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2215-9410","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Vincent Wai\u2010Sun","family":"Wong","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Digestive Disease The Chinese University of Hong Kong Hong Kong China"},{"name":"Department of Medicine and Therapeutics The Chinese University of Hong Kong Hong Kong China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Yee\u2010Kit","family":"Tse","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Digestive Disease The Chinese University of Hong Kong Hong Kong China"},{"name":"Department of Medicine and Therapeutics The Chinese University of Hong Kong Hong Kong China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Terry Cheuk\u2010Fung","family":"Yip","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Digestive Disease The Chinese University of Hong Kong Hong Kong China"},{"name":"Department of Medicine and Therapeutics The Chinese University of Hong Kong Hong Kong China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Louis Ho\u2010Shing","family":"Lau","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Digestive Disease The Chinese University of Hong Kong Hong Kong China"},{"name":"Department of Medicine and Therapeutics The Chinese University of Hong Kong Hong Kong China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Henry Hin\u2010Wai","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Medicine Queen Elizabeth Hospital Hong Kong 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