{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,15]],"date-time":"2026-10-15T04:23:50Z","timestamp":1792038230739,"version":"4.4.0"},"reference-count":51,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2014,5,5]],"date-time":"2014-05-05T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1399248000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100009670","name":"NARSAD","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100009670","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Bipolar Disorders"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2014,8]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec><jats:title>Objectives<\/jats:title><jats:p>There are no established tools to identify individuals at risk for developing bipolar disorder. We developed a set of ultra\u2010high\u2010risk criteria for bipolar disorder [bipolar at\u2010risk (<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">BAR<\/jats:styled-content>)]. The primary aim of the present study was to determine the predictive validity of the <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">BAR<\/jats:styled-content> criteria.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>This was a 12\u2010month prospective study that was conducted at Orygen Youth Health Clinical Program, a public mental health program for young people aged 15\u201324\u00a0years in metropolitan Melbourne, Australia. At intake, <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">BAR<\/jats:styled-content> screen\u2010positive individuals and a matched group of individuals who did not meet <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">BAR<\/jats:styled-content> criteria were observed over a period of 12\u00a0months. The <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">BAR<\/jats:styled-content> criteria include general criteria such as being in the peak age range for the onset of the disorder, as well as sub\u2010threshold mania, depression plus cyclothymic features, and depression plus genetic risk. Conversion to first\u2010episode mania\/hypomania was defined by the presence of <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">DSM<\/jats:styled-content>\u2010<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">IV<\/jats:styled-content> manic symptoms for more than four days, in line with the <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">DSM<\/jats:styled-content>\u2010<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">IV<\/jats:styled-content> definition of hypomania\/mania.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>A total of 559 help\u2010seeking patients were screened. Of the eligible participants, 59 (10.6%) met <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">BAR<\/jats:styled-content> criteria. Thirty\u2010five participants were included in the <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">BAR<\/jats:styled-content> group and 35 matched participants were selected to be in the control group. During the follow\u2010up, five <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">BAR<\/jats:styled-content> patients out of 35 (14.3%) converted to first\u2010episode hypomania\/mania as opposed to none in the non\u2010<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">BAR<\/jats:styled-content> group [\u03c7<jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup>(1)\u00a0=\u00a05.38, p\u00a0=\u00a00.020]. Four out of these five converters had a <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">DSM<\/jats:styled-content>\u2010<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">IV<\/jats:styled-content> diagnosis of bipolar I or bipolar <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">II<\/jats:styled-content> disorder.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title><jats:p>These findings support the possibility of identification of persons prior to the onset of mania\/hypomania. The proposed criteria need further evaluation in larger, prospective studies with longer follow\u2010up periods.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/bdi.12205","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2014,5,5]],"date-time":"2014-05-05T23:47:20Z","timestamp":1399333640000},"page":"493-504","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":123,"title":["The predictive validity of bipolar at\u2010risk (prodromal) criteria in help\u2010seeking adolescents and young adults: a prospective study"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"16","author":[{"given":"Andreas","family":"Bechdolf","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Psychiatry, Psychotherapy and Psychosomatics Vivantes Klinikum am Urban Academic Hospital of Charite Medicine Berlin Berlin Germany"},{"name":"Orygen Youth Health Research Centre"},{"name":"Centre for Youth Mental Health University of Melbourne Parkville Vic. Australia"},{"name":"Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy University of Cologne Cologne Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Aswin","family":"Ratheesh","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Youth Mental Health University of Melbourne Parkville Vic. Australia"},{"name":"Orygen Youth Health Clinical Program Parkville Vic. Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sue M","family":"Cotton","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Orygen Youth Health Research Centre"},{"name":"Centre for Youth Mental Health University of Melbourne Parkville Vic. Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Barnaby","family":"Nelson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Orygen Youth Health Research Centre"},{"name":"Centre for Youth Mental Health University of Melbourne Parkville Vic. Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Andrew M","family":"Chanen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Orygen Youth Health Research Centre"},{"name":"Centre for Youth Mental Health University of Melbourne Parkville Vic. Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jennifer","family":"Betts","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Orygen Youth Health Research Centre"},{"name":"Centre for Youth Mental Health University of Melbourne Parkville Vic. 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