{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,2]],"date-time":"2026-09-02T02:14:36Z","timestamp":1788315276890,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":27,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,7,27]],"date-time":"2022-07-27T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1658880000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["bjui-journals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["BJU International"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2022,12]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Objectives<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>To develop a nomogram that could predict spontaneous stone passage (SSP) in patients presenting with acute ureteric colic who are suitable for conservative management.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Patients and Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      A 2517 patient dataset was utilised from an international multicentre cohort study (MIMIC, A Multi\u2010centre Cohort Study Evaluating the role of Inflammatory Markers In Patients Presenting with Acute Ureteric Colic) of patients presenting with acute ureteric colic across 71 secondary care hospitals in the UK, Ireland, Australia, and New Zealand. Inclusion criteria mandated a non\u2010contrast computed tomography of the kidneys, ureters, and bladder. SSP was defined as the \u2018absence of the need for intervention\u2019. The model was developed using logistic regression and backwards selection (to achieve lowest Akaike's information criterion) in a subset from 2009\u20132015 (\n                      <jats:italic>n<\/jats:italic>\n                      =\u20091728) and temporally validated on a subset from 2016\u20132017 (\n                      <jats:italic>n<\/jats:italic>\n                      =\u2009789).\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      Of the 2517 patients, 1874 had SSP (74.5%). The mean (SD) age was 47\u2009(14.7)\u2009years and 1892 were male (75.2%). At the end of the modelling process, gender: male (odds ratio [OR] 0.8, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.64\u20131.01,\n                      <jats:italic>P<\/jats:italic>\n                      =\u20090.07), neutrophil count (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.00\u20131.06,\n                      <jats:italic>P<\/jats:italic>\n                      =\u20090.08), hydronephrosis (OR 0.79, 95% CI 0.59\u20131.05,\n                      <jats:italic>P<\/jats:italic>\n                      =\u20090.1), hydroureter (OR 1.3, 95% CI 0.97\u20131.75,\n                      <jats:italic>P<\/jats:italic>\n                      =\u20090.08), stone size &gt;5\u20137\u2009mm (OR 0.2, 95% CI 0.16\u20130.25,\n                      <jats:italic>P<\/jats:italic>\n                      &lt;\u20090.001), stone size &gt;7\u2009mm (OR 0.11, 95% CI 0.08\u20130.15,\n                      <jats:italic>P<\/jats:italic>\n                      &lt;\u20090.001), middle ureter stone position (OR 0.59, 95% CI 0.43\u20130.81,\n                      <jats:italic>P<\/jats:italic>\n                      =\u20090.001), upper ureter stone position (OR 0.31, 95% CI 0.25\u20130.39,\n                      <jats:italic>P<\/jats:italic>\n                      &lt;\u20090.001), medical expulsive therapy use (OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.1\u20131.67,\n                      <jats:italic>P<\/jats:italic>\n                      =\u20090.001), oral nonsteroidal anti\u2010inflammatory drug (NSAID) use (OR 1.3, 95% CI 0.99\u20131.71,\n                      <jats:italic>P<\/jats:italic>\n                      =\u20090.06), and rectal NSAID use (OR 1.17, 95% CI 0.9\u20131.53,\n                      <jats:italic>P<\/jats:italic>\n                      =\u20090.24) remained. The concordance\u2010statistic (C\u2010statistic) was 0.77 (95% CI 0.75\u20130.80) and a nomogram was developed based on these.\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      The presented nomogram is available to use as an on\u2010line calculator via\n                      <jats:ext-link xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" xlink:href=\"http:\/\/www.bursturology.com\">www.BURSTurology.com<\/jats:ext-link>\n                      and could allow clinicians and patients to make a more informed decision on pursuing conservative management vs early intervention.\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/bju.15839","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,6,28]],"date-time":"2022-06-28T04:19:32Z","timestamp":1656389972000},"page":"823-831","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":12,"title":["Nomogram predicting the probability of spontaneous stone passage in patients presenting with acute ureteric colic"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"130","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9824-6468","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Chuanyu","family":"Gao","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"British Urology Researchers in Surgical Training (BURST)  London UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Max","family":"Peters","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Radiation Oncology, Cancer Centre University Medical Centre Utrecht  Utrecht the Netherlands"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Piet","family":"Kurver","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Radiation Oncology, Cancer Centre University Medical Centre Utrecht  Utrecht the Netherlands"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Thineskrishna","family":"Anbarasan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"British Urology Researchers in Surgical Training (BURST)  London UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Keerthanaa","family":"Jayaraajan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"British Urology Researchers in Surgical Training (BURST)  London UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5609-3769","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Todd","family":"Manning","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Australian Young Urology Researchers Organisation (YURO)  Melbourne Vic. 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