{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,6]],"date-time":"2026-05-06T07:22:08Z","timestamp":1778052128360,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":30,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,17]],"date-time":"2025-11-17T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1763337600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,17]],"date-time":"2025-11-17T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1763337600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000002","name":"National Institutes of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["R21DE032149"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["R21DE032149"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000002","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000002","name":"National Institutes of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["K08DE032443"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["K08DE032443"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000002","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Comm Dent Oral Epid"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,6]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Objective<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Demonstrate and evaluate methodology to estimate annual probability a sound\u2010unsealed molar develops caries (AP) among US adults, aged 21 and 25\u2009years.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>A synthetic birth cohort was created with National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data from 2001 to 2004 and 2011 to 2014. The synthetic birth cohort was born between 1982 and 1989 and was aged 15 to 19\u2009years in 2001\u20132004 and 25 to 29 in 2011\u20132014. Caries increment (difference in per\u2010person decayed, missing and filled molars (DMF) between adolescence and young adulthood) obtained from the synthetic birth cohort was used to estimate AP not adjusted for the presence of sealants. Adjusted estimates were obtained by inputting information on sound\u2010sealed, sound\u2010unsealed and DMF molars among adolescents and DMF among young adults from the synthetic cohort and sealant retention from the literature into a Markov model. AP was estimated by solving for the AP that yielded the DMF for the synthetic cohort in young adults. To evaluate Markov\u2010model performance, longitudinal data from five caries effectiveness trials were used to estimate true AP and adjusted AP. One\u2010way sensitivity analyses of model parameters were also conducted.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The adjusted AP (0.038) was notably higher than the unadjusted AP (0.031). The average and median percentage deviation of adjusted APs relative to their true values were, respectively, 10.1% and 7.1%. The most influential model parameters were DMF in adulthood and annual retention.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>This methodology provides reasonable estimates of AP that can be used in cost\u2010effective analyses of providing sealants to young adults.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/cdoe.70040","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,17]],"date-time":"2025-11-17T09:12:15Z","timestamp":1763370735000},"page":"294-302","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Estimating Caries Risk in Unsealed\u2010Permanent Molars Among Young Adults With Data From Repeated National Surveys and a Markov Model"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"54","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0016-6556","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Susan O.","family":"Griffin","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Oral Health Centers for Disease Control and Prevention  Atlanta Georgia USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1716-7849","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mei","family":"Lin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Oral Health Centers for Disease Control and Prevention  Atlanta Georgia USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5586-5843","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Shillpa","family":"Naavaal","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Pediatric Dentistry and Department of Dental Public Health and Policy, School of Dentistry Virginia Commonwealth University  Richmond Virginia USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0008-0816-8146","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Liang","family":"Wei","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"DB Consulting Group Inc  Atlanta Georgia USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0007-9671-628X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Christina R.","family":"Scherrer","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering Kennesaw State University  Marietta Georgia USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,17]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_9_2_1","unstructured":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention \u201cOral Health Surveillance Report: Trends in Dental Caries and Sealants Tooth Retention and Edentulism United States 1999\u20132004 to 2011\u20132016 \u201d(2019) https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/oral\u2010health\/php\/data\u2010research\/2019\u2010oral\u2010health\u2010surveillance\u2010report\/index.html."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_3_1","volume-title":"Oral Health in America: A Report of the Surgeon General","author":"Department of Health and Human Services","year":"2000"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.adaj.2021.01.003"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/14651858.CD001830.pub2"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_6_1","unstructured":"Medicaid and CHIP Payment and Access Commission (MACPAC) \u201cMedicaid Coverage of Adult Dental Services: Compendium: State Medicaid Adult Fee\u2010For Service Dental Coverage Policies \u201d(2021) https:\/\/www.macpac.gov\/wp\u2010content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/Medicaid\u2010Coverage\u2010of\u2010Adult\u2010Dental\u2010Services.pdf."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1752\u20107325.1989.tb02084.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/154405910408300810"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/154405910508400806"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2105\/AJPH.2014.301869"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1201\/b13902"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12903\u2010025\u201006108\u2010w"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_13_1","unstructured":"National Center for Health Statistics National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion \u201cData Quality Evaluation of the Dental Fluorosis Clinical Assessment Data From the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999\u20132004 and 2011\u20132016. National Center for Health Statistics. Vital Health Stat. Series 2 No. 183 \u201d(2019) https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/nchs\/data\/series\/sr_02\/sr02_183\u2010508.pdf."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_14_1","unstructured":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention \u201cNational Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES): Oral Health Examiners Manual \u201d(2013) https:\/\/wwwn.cdc.gov\/nchs\/data\/nhanes\/public\/2013\/manuals\/Oral_Health_Examiners.pdf."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_15_1","first-page":"87","volume-title":"Proceedings of the Conference on the Clinical Testing of Cariostatic Agents","author":"Radike A. 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Dental Sealants in the Prevention of Tooth Decay","volume":"48","author":"Institutes of Health","year":"1984","journal-title":"Journal of Dental Education"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1159\/000075937"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.adaj.2016.06.001"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1377\/hlthaff.2016.0800"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_31_1","unstructured":"P. L.Owens R. J.Manski andA. J.Weiss \u201cEmergency Department Visits Involving Dental Conditions 2018. HCUP Statistical Brief #280. Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality Rockville MD \u201d(2021) www.hcup\u2010us.ahrq.gov\/reports\/statbriefs\/sb280\u2010Dental\u2010ED\u2010Visits\u20102018.pdf."}],"container-title":["Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/cdoe.70040","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1111\/cdoe.70040","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/cdoe.70040","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,6]],"date-time":"2026-05-06T06:40:23Z","timestamp":1778049623000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/cdoe.70040"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,17]]},"references-count":30,"journal-issue":{"issue":"3","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,6]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1111\/cdoe.70040"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/cdoe.70040","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0301-5661","1600-0528"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0301-5661","type":"print"},{"value":"1600-0528","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,17]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2024-11-30","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2025-10-29","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2025-11-17","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}