{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,13]],"date-time":"2026-02-13T21:38:37Z","timestamp":1771018717675,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":36,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"7","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,7,10]],"date-time":"2023-07-10T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1688947200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":9,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000781","name":"European Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["ERC\u20102013\u2010AdG339182\u2010BAYES_KNOWLEDGE"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["ERC\u20102013\u2010AdG339182\u2010BAYES_KNOWLEDGE"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000781","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000275","name":"Leverhulme Trust","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["RPG\u20102016\u2010118 CAUSAL\u2010DYNAMICS"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["RPG\u20102016\u2010118 CAUSAL\u2010DYNAMICS"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000275","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Cognitive Science"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,7]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>We present three experiments using a novel problem in which participants update their estimates of propensities when faced with an uncertain new instance. We examine this using two different causal structures (common cause\/common effect) and two different scenarios (agent\u2010based\/mechanical). In the first, participants must update their estimate of the propensity for two warring nations to successfully explode missiles after being told of a new explosion on the border between both nations. In the second, participants must update their estimate of the accuracy of two early warning tests for cancer when they produce conflicting reports about a patient. Across both experiments, we find two modal responses, representing around one\u2010third of participants each. In the first, \u201cCategorical\u201d response, participants update propensity estimates as if they were certain about the single event, for example, certain that one of the nations was responsible for the latest explosion, or certain about which of the two tests is correct. In the second, \u201cNo change\u201d response, participants make no update to their propensity estimates at all. Across the three experiments, the theory is developed and tested that these two responses in fact have a single representation of the problem: because the actual outcome is binary (only one of the nations could have launched the missile; the patient either has cancer or not), these participants believe it is incorrect to update propensities in a graded manner. They therefore operate on a \u201ccertainty threshold\u201d basis, whereby, if they are certain enough about the single event, they will make the \u201cCategorical\u201d response, and if they are below this threshold, they will make the \u201cNo change\u201d response. Ramifications are considered for the \u201ccategorical\u201d response in particular, as this approach produces a positive\u2010feedback dynamic similar to that seen in the belief polarization\/confirmation bias literature.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/cogs.13313","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,7,10]],"date-time":"2023-07-10T18:41:27Z","timestamp":1689014487000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Categorical Updating in a Bayesian Propensity Problem"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"47","author":[{"given":"Stephen H.","family":"Dewitt","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Experimental Psychology University College London"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Nine","family":"Adler","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Experimental Psychology University College London"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Carmen","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Experimental Psychology University College London"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Ekaterina","family":"Stoilova","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Experimental Psychology University College London"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Norman E.","family":"Fenton","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Electronic Engineering and Computer Science Queen Mary University of London"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"David A.","family":"Lagnado","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Experimental Psychology University College London"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,7,10]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_8_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-2909.129.1.139"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0001-6918(80)90046-3"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1422211"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJM197811022991808"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fpsyg.2014.00991"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.104.2.367"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/tops.12186"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fpsyg.2020.503233"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0192512108097055"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1201\/b21982"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-6494.1949.tb01236.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jeea\/jvy025"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/a0035232"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0030-5073(73)90024-X"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.102.4.684"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/3791173"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1163\/9789004368811_003"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cogpsych.2005.05.004"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/a0035941"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/xge0000720"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_22_1","first-page":"506","volume-title":"Proceedings of the 41st Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society","author":"Johnson S. 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