{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,27]],"date-time":"2026-08-27T18:20:50Z","timestamp":1787854850238,"version":"build-2784847793"},"reference-count":46,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"8","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,6]],"date-time":"2026-08-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1785974400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":5,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,1]],"date-time":"2026-08-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1785542400000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000925","name":"John Templeton Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["62265"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["62265"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000925","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Cognitive Science"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,8]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    It is natural to express some beliefs in binary terms (\n                    <jats:italic>P<\/jats:italic>\n                    is either believed or not, e.g., \u201cbribery is immoral\u201d), and others in terms of a subjective probability (\n                    <jats:italic>P<\/jats:italic>\n                    has some probability of being true, e.g., \u201cthere's an 80% chance a Democrat will win the next election\u201d). Construing a belief in probabilistic terms (other than 0% or 100%) implicitly conveys a recognition of uncertainty (one's ignorance) and the possibility of being wrong (one's fallibility), which are key characteristics of intellectual humility (IH). Across two studies, we explore the hypothesis that probabilistic belief is associated with greater IH. Although we fail to find this association\n                    <jats:italic>across<\/jats:italic>\n                    participants, comparing their trait\u2010level IH, in either a student sample (Study 1,\n                    <jats:italic>N<\/jats:italic>\n                    \u00a0=\u00a0279) or two nationally representative samples (Study 2a,\n                    <jats:italic>N<\/jats:italic>\n                    \u00a0=\u00a0269; Study 2b,\n                    <jats:italic>N<\/jats:italic>\n                    \u00a0=\u00a0270), we do find the predicted association\n                    <jats:italic>within<\/jats:italic>\n                    participants, analyzing belief\u2010specific IH (Studies 2a and 2b): political and moral beliefs that are classified as probabilistic rather than binary are associated with a more intellectually humble attitude toward those beliefs, even controlling for the extremity of belief. These findings support the psychological reality of a distinction between binary and probabilistic belief, and further raise the possibility that promoting probabilistic belief could foster greater IH, including in consequential domains such as politics and morality.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/cogs.70250","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,6]],"date-time":"2026-08-06T15:04:44Z","timestamp":1786028684000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Intellectual Humility and Probabilistic Belief"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"50","author":[{"given":"Logan","family":"Nelson","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Psychology, Princeton University"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kathryn","family":"McGregor","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Psychology, Princeton University"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4980-7839","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Tania","family":"Lombrozo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Psychology, Princeton University"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,6]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_10_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/17439760.2021.1940252"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cognition.2018.10.004"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jrp.2020.103992"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0146167221997619"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/17439760.2023.2208100"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/19485506241284020"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11098-013-0182-y"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/phpr.12768"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tics.2006.05.007"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/pspp0000446"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tics.2021.06.004"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cognition.2023.105379"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/17439760.2022.2154706"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/poq\/nfz003"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_16_1","volume-title":"Change in view: Principles of reasoning","author":"Harman G.","year":"1986"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.11612\/resphil.1535"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/bs.aesp.2026.03.005"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.paid.2016.03.043"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev-polisci-051117-073034"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ajps.12152"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/phis.12225"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-94-010-3390-9_8"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/xge0000720"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/00223891.2015.1068174"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0146167217697695"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/epi.2018.23"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/1745691615577794"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cognition.2018.10.021"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cognition.2025.106378"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/01461672231154886"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s44159-024-00398-7"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/acprof:oso\/9780198732716.001.0001"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/mila.12238"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_35_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/00223891.2021.1975725"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_36_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s44159-022-00081-9"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_37_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/08901171221125326d"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_38_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/pops.12890"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_39_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1751-9004.2010.00254.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_40_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/13546780600780796"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_41_1","volume-title":"The Oxford handbook of the cognitive science of belief","author":"Teas P. 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