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Prediction models help distinguish between high\u2010 and low\u2010risk groups. At present, many prediction models have been established and validated, which need to be systematically reviewed to screen out more suitable models that can be used in the clinic and provide evidence for future research.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library and Web of Science databases for studies on risk models for AECOPD mortality from their inception to 10 April 2022. The risk of bias was assessed using the prediction model risk of bias assessment tool (PROBAST). Stata software (version 16) was used to synthesize the C\u2010statistics for each model.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>A total of 37 studies were included. The development of risk prediction models for mortality in patients with AECOPD was described in 26 articles, in which the most common predictors were age (<jats:italic>n<\/jats:italic>\u2009=\u200917), dyspnea grade (<jats:italic>n<\/jats:italic>\u2009=\u200911), altered mental status (<jats:italic>n<\/jats:italic>\u2009=\u20098), pneumonia (<jats:italic>n<\/jats:italic>\u2009=\u20096) and blood urea nitrogen (BUN, <jats:italic>n<\/jats:italic>\u2009=\u20096). The remaining 11 articles only externally validated existing models. All 37 studies were evaluated at a high risk of bias using PROBAST. We performed a meta\u2010analysis of five models included in 15 studies. DECAF (dyspnoea, eosinopenia, consolidation, acidemia and atrial fibrillation) performed well in predicting in\u2010hospital death [C\u2010statistic\u2009=\u20090.91, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.83, 0.98] and 90\u2010day death [C\u2010statistic\u2009=\u20090.76, 95% CI: 0.69, 0.82] and CURB\u201065 (confusion, urea, respiratory rate, blood pressure and age) performed well in predicting 30\u2010day death [C\u2010statistic\u2009=\u20090.74, 95% CI: 0.70, 0.77].<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title><jats:p>This study provides information on the characteristics, performance and risk of bias of a risk model for AECOPD mortality. This pooled analysis of the present study suggests that the DECAF performs well in predicting in\u2010hospital and 90\u2010day deaths. Yet, external validation in different populations is still needed to prove this performance.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/crj.13606","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,3,22]],"date-time":"2023-03-22T06:43:18Z","timestamp":1679467398000},"page":"707-718","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":13,"title":["A pooled analysis of the risk prediction models for mortality in acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"17","author":[{"given":"Zile","family":"Ji","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Respiratory Diseases The First Affiliated Hospital of Henan University of Chinese Medicine  Zhengzhou China"},{"name":"Co\u2010Construction Collaborative Innovation Center for Chinese Medicine and Respiratory Diseases by Henan &amp; Education Ministry of P.R. 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