{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,13]],"date-time":"2026-03-13T17:58:33Z","timestamp":1773424713734,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":43,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2017,3,17]],"date-time":"2017-03-17T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1489708800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100008868","name":"International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100008868","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Clinical Transplantation"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2017,4]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Background<\/jats:title><jats:p>Cardiac allograft vasculopathy (<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">CAV<\/jats:styled-content>) remains an important cause of graft failure after heart transplantation (<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">HT<\/jats:styled-content>). Although many risk factors for <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">CAV<\/jats:styled-content> have been identified, there are no clinical prediction models that enable clinicians to determine each recipient's risk of <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">CAV<\/jats:styled-content>.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>We studied a cohort of 14\u00a0328 heart transplant recipients whose data were reported to the International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation Registry between 2000 and 2010. The cohort was divided into training (75%) and test (25%) sets. Multivariable modeling was performed in the test set using variables available at the time of heart transplant using three methods: (i) stepwise Cox proportional hazard, (ii)\u00a0regularized Cox proportional hazard, and (iii) Bayesian network.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>Cardiac allograft vasculopathy developed in 4259 recipients (29.7%) at a median time of 3.0\u00a0years after <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">HT<\/jats:styled-content>. The regularized Cox proportional hazard model yielded the optimal performance and was also the most parsimonious. We deployed this model as an Internet\u2010based risk calculator application.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title><jats:p>We have developed a clinical prediction model for assessing a recipient's risk of <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">CAV<\/jats:styled-content> using variables available at the time of <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">HT<\/jats:styled-content>. Application of this model may allow clinicians to determine which recipients will benefit from interventions to reduce the risk of development and progression of <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">CAV<\/jats:styled-content>.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/ctr.12925","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2017,2,9]],"date-time":"2017-02-09T08:06:52Z","timestamp":1486627612000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":17,"title":["Prediction model for cardiac allograft vasculopathy: Comparison of three multivariable methods"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"31","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0507-2412","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Evan P.","family":"Kransdorf","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Cedars\u2010Sinai Heart Institute Cedars\u2010Sinai Medical Center  Los Angeles CA USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Natasha 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