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Observed rates during the COVID\u201019 pandemic (2020\u20132021) were compared with their counterfactual forecast in an ARIMA model, overall and disaggregated by sex, age and drug involved.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>Observed rates of drug\u2010induced hospitalisation and death, overall and by sex, were not significantly different from the forecasted rates. The rates of drug\u2010induced death among people aged 35\u201354 and 55+\u2009years were lower than forecasted by 2.1 [95% prediction interval\u2009=\u2009\u22123.8, \u22120.4] and 0.7 [\u22121.3, \u22120.1] deaths per 1,000,000 persons per month, respectively. The rates of drug\u2010induced hospitalisation and death involving heroin were lower than forecasted by 1.5 [\u22122.4, \u22120.7] and 1.0 [\u22121.3, \u22120.6] per 1,000,000 persons per month, respectively, as were those involving amphetamine\u2010type stimulants by 12.4 [\u221221.4, \u22120.8] and 0.5 [\u22120.7, \u22120.2] per 1,000,000 persons per month, respectively. The rate of cannabinoid\u2010induced hospitalisations was higher than forecasted by 3.8 [0.8, 6.8] hospitalisations per 1,000,000 persons per month.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Discussion and Conclusions<\/jats:title><jats:p>We found no evidence of an overall difference in the rate of drug\u2010induced harms during the COVID\u201019 pandemic relative to the forecasted trend. However, there were differences by drug involved, which may be explained by drug market disruptions and changes in drug use during the pandemic.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/dar.14088","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,17]],"date-time":"2025-06-17T08:04:38Z","timestamp":1750147478000},"page":"1419-1429","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["Changes in Drug\u2010Induced Hospitalisations and Deaths During the First Year of the <scp>COVID<\/scp>\u201019 Pandemic in Australia"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"44","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2224-9301","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nicola","family":"Man","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre UNSW Sydney  Sydney Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6542-2579","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jane","family":"Akhurst","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre UNSW Sydney  Sydney Australia"},{"name":"Tobacco, Alcohol &amp; 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