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The multivariate logistic regression identified nail psoriasis (odds ratio [OR] 1.88, 95%\u00a0CI: 1.07\u20133.29), synovitis (OR 18.23, 95% CI: 4.04\u201382.33), enthesitis (OR 3.71, 95%\u00a0CI: 1.05\u201313.14), and bone erosion (OR 11.39, 95%\u00a0CI: 3.05\u201342.63) as effective predictors for PsA. The area under the curve was 0.750 (95%\u00a0CI, 0.691\u20130.806) and 0.804 (95%\u00a0CI, 0.723\u20130.886) for the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The Hosmer\u2010Lemeshow goodness\u2010of\u2010fit test showed good consistency for both the training cohort (p\u00a0 = \u00a00.970) and the validation cohort (p\u00a0 = \u00a00.967). Calibration curves also indicated good calibration for both cohorts. The DCA revealed that the predictive model had good clinical utility.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title><jats:p>We have developed a quantitative, intuitive, and convenient predictive model based on nail psoriasis, synovitis, enthesitis, and bone erosion to assess the risk of PsA in patients with plaque psoriasis.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/ddg.15446","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,9]],"date-time":"2024-08-09T14:55:10Z","timestamp":1723215310000},"page":"1350-1359","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["A novel nomogram to predict psoriatic arthritis in patients with plaque psoriasis"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"22","author":[{"given":"Minjia","family":"Tan","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"The Department of Dermatology Xiangya Hospital Central South University  Changsha China"},{"name":"Department of Dermatology The Eighth 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