{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,13]],"date-time":"2026-03-13T22:15:22Z","timestamp":1773440122143,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":38,"publisher":"Wiley","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,3,11]],"date-time":"2024-03-11T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1710115200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Digestive Endoscopy"],"abstract":"<jats:sec><jats:title>Objectives<\/jats:title><jats:p>We aimed to develop and validate a simple scoring system to predict in\u2010hospital mortality after endoscopic variceal ligation (EVL) for esophageal variceal bleeding.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>Data from a 13\u2010year study involving 46 Japanese institutions were split into development (initial 7\u2009years) and validation (last 6\u2009years) cohorts. The study subjects were patients hospitalized for esophageal variceal bleeding and treated with EVL. Variable selection was performed using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression, targeting in\u2010hospital all\u2010cause mortality as the outcome. We developed the Hospital Outcome Prediction following Endoscopic Variceal Ligation (HOPE\u2010EVL) score from \u03b2 coefficients of multivariate logistic regression and assessed its discrimination and calibration.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>The study included 980 patients: 536 in the development cohort and 444 in the validation cohort. In\u2010hospital mortality was 13.6% and 10.1% for the respective cohorts. The scoring system used five variables: systolic blood pressure (&lt;80\u2009mmHg: 2 points), Glasgow Coma Scale (\u226412: 1 point), total bilirubin (\u22655\u2009mg\/dL: 1 point), creatinine (\u22651.5\u2009mg\/dL: 1 point), and albumin (&lt;2.8\u2009g\/dL: 1 point). The risk groups (low: 0\u20131, middle: 2\u20133, high: \u22654) in the validation cohort corresponded to observed and predicted mortality probabilities of 2.0% and 2.5%, 19.0% and 22.9%, and 57.6% and 71.9%, respectively. In this cohort, the HOPE\u2010EVL score demonstrated excellent discrimination ability (area under the curve [AUC] 0.890; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.850\u20130.930) compared with the Model for End\u2010stage Liver Disease score (AUC 0.853; 95% CI 0.794\u20130.912) and the Child\u2013Pugh score (AUC 0.798; 95% CI 0.727\u20130.869).<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title><jats:p>The HOPE\u2010EVL score practically and effectively predicts in\u2010hospital mortality. This score could facilitate the appropriate allocation of resources and effective communication with patients and their families.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/den.14773","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,3,11]],"date-time":"2024-03-11T07:33:58Z","timestamp":1710142438000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Development and validation of a scoring system for in\u2010hospital mortality following band ligation in esophageal variceal bleeding"],"prefix":"10.1111","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9210-7371","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Chikamasa","family":"Ichita","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Gastroenterology Medicine Center Shonan Kamakura General Hospital  Kanagawa Japan"},{"name":"Department of Health Data Science Yokohama City University  Kanagawa Japan"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Tadahiro","family":"Goto","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Health Data Science Yokohama City University  Kanagawa Japan"},{"name":"TXP Research TXP Medical Co., Ltd  Tokyo Japan"},{"name":"Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Health Economics, School of Public Health The University of Tokyo  Tokyo Japan"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Yohei","family":"Okada","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Preventive Services, Graduate School of Medicine Kyoto University  Kyoto Japan"},{"name":"Health Services and Systems Research Duke\u2010NUS Medical School  Singapore City Singapore"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Haruki","family":"Uojima","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Gastroenterology Medicine Center Shonan Kamakura General Hospital  Kanagawa Japan"},{"name":"Department of Genome Medical Sciences Project Research Institute, National Center for Global Health and Medicine  Chiba Japan"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Masao","family":"Iwagami","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Health Services Research Institute of Medicine, University of Tsukuba  Chiba Japan"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Akiko","family":"Sasaki","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Gastroenterology Medicine Center Shonan Kamakura General Hospital  Kanagawa Japan"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Sayuri","family":"Shimizu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Health Data Science Yokohama City University  Kanagawa Japan"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,3,11]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_9_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.dld.2013.12.010"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/gutjnl-2015-309262"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/hep.28906"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhep.2021.12.022"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1572-0241.2000.03376.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/hep.20339"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/jgh.15601"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1053\/jhep.2003.50385"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhep.2012.07.038"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0011-3840(64)80003-4"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/bjs.1800600817"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1053\/he.2000.5852"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1053\/jhep.2001.22172"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.g7594"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ndt\/gfy011"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2188\/jea.JE20200288"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10916-008-9220-2"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2015.04.005"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ckj\/sfaa188"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0895-4356(89)90065-6"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/den.13577"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2188\/jea.JE20220147"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjopen-2019-029706"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7326\/M14-0698"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_26_1","unstructured":"StekhovenDJ.Package: missForest. 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