{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,3]],"date-time":"2026-07-03T14:20:31Z","timestamp":1783088431072,"version":"3.54.6"},"reference-count":54,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,11]],"date-time":"2026-06-11T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1781136000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,11]],"date-time":"2026-06-11T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1781136000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Developmental Science"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,7]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:label\/>\n                    <jats:p>Environmental input is inherently uncertain at both global and local levels. Depending on the level of uncertainty, cognitive systems dynamically adapt by shifting attention between exploiting learned regularities and exploring less predictable alternatives. While these dynamics are well documented in adults, how local and global uncertainty jointly influences children's exploration\u2010exploitation strategies during statistical learning remains unclear. Combining eye\u2010tracking with a probabilistic cueing task, this study quantified local and global uncertainty on a trial\u2010by\u2010trial basis to examine their effects on children's attentional preferences for cues differing in predictive value. Overall, 158 children aged 4 to 13 years passively viewed cue\u2010target sequences in which target shapes were predicted by cues with high\u2010 and low\u2010transitional probabilities. Results showed that under high global uncertainty, high local uncertainty biased attention toward high\u2010predictive cues, indicating uncertainty\u2010exploitation, whereas low local uncertainty biased attention toward low\u2010predictive cues, suggesting certainty\u2010exploration. Conversely, under low global uncertainty, attentional strategies reversed, shifting toward certainty\u2010exploitation and uncertainty\u2010exploration. These patterns were amplified in older children but attenuated in younger ones. These findings support a developmental dynamic model of exploration\u2010exploitation in which children's attention strategies are jointly regulated by local and global uncertainty and undergo systematic change across childhood.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Summary<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      <jats:list list-type=\"bullet\">\n                        <jats:list-item>\n                          <jats:p>How local and global uncertainty jointly shapes the development of children's exploration\u2010exploitation behavior during statistical learning across different ages remains poorly understood.<\/jats:p>\n                        <\/jats:list-item>\n                        <jats:list-item>\n                          <jats:p>Using eye\u2010tracking in a probabilistic learning task, we showed that 4\u201013\u2010year\u2010olds adapt their information sampling and choices in response to overarching and trial\u2010by\u2010trial uncertainty.<\/jats:p>\n                        <\/jats:list-item>\n                        <jats:list-item>\n                          <jats:p>Under high global uncertainty, children relied on local uncertainty for exploitation and exploration; under low global uncertainty, they favored certainty\u2010driven exploitation and uncertainty\u2010driven exploration.<\/jats:p>\n                        <\/jats:list-item>\n                        <jats:list-item>\n                          <jats:p>These uncertainty\u2010regulated strategies were amplified in older children but attenuated in younger children.<\/jats:p>\n                        <\/jats:list-item>\n                      <\/jats:list>\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/desc.70235","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,12]],"date-time":"2026-06-12T05:12:13Z","timestamp":1781241133000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["How Uncertainty Affects Children's Exploration and Exploitation in Statistical Learning"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"29","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3319-4609","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Shelley Xiuli","family":"Tong","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Academic Unit of Human Communication, Learning, and Development, Faculty of Education The University of Hong Kong  Hong Kong China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3217-2870","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Puyuan","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Academic Unit of Human Communication, Learning, and Development, Faculty of Education The University of Hong Kong  Hong Kong China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mei","family":"Zhou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Academic Unit of Human Communication, Learning, and Development, Faculty of Education The University of Hong Kong  Hong Kong China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2061-5729","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Johannes C.","family":"Ziegler","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Aix\u2010Marseille University, CNRS, CRPN, 3  Marseille France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,11]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_13_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467\u20107687.2009.00937.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/desc.13026"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/cdev.14070"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cogpsych.2011.12.002"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598\u2010023\u201031953\u20106"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cognition.2011.06.010"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11336\u2010013\u20109328\u20102"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.neuron.2022.05.025"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jml.2021.104298"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.neuropsychologia.2006.02.006"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1523\/JNEUROSCI.0315\u201020.2020"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2008.0300"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/rev0000547"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/17470210701643439"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.aba3828"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_17_1","volume-title":"Theory of probability","author":"Jeffreys H.","year":"1961"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/35081509"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0036399"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/B978-0-12-673020-3.50010-0"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1820145116"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.neubiorev.2006.06.001"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Lenth R. 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