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Using a novel stratified adaptive cluster sampling approach, we collected representative panel data from firms in Beira (heavily affected) and Chimoio (less affected). Many firms demonstrated rapid initial recovery without financial intervention, but did not sustain this over time. Although the overall effect of the grants on the full sample is not statistically significant, important heterogeneity in treatment effects did emerge. In Beira, the grants positively influenced firm recovery, whereas no significant effects were observed in Chimoio. Within Beira, the grants were particularly beneficial for firms that suffered greater damage, employed more workers, operated in the carpentry subsector, and invested the funds in machinery or tools. We explore potential explanations of the overall null result, including rapid self\u2010recovery and the unique challenges faced by manufacturing firms, while highlighting the importance of targeting specific subgroups in future disaster recovery efforts.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/disa.12689","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,5]],"date-time":"2025-07-05T03:04:02Z","timestamp":1751684642000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Cash grants to informal firms after Cyclone Idai: beyond the null"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"49","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0650-6566","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Hanna","family":"Berkel","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Mozambican Ministry of Planning and Development United Nations University\u2013World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU\u2010WIDER)  Mozambique"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Peter","family":"Fisker","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Independent Researcher  Denmark"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Finn","family":"Tarp","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Copenhagen  Denmark"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,5]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_11_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1596\/1813-9450-9712"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9361.2012.00674.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.worlddev.2014.12.017"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_5_1","volume-title":"Inqu\u00e9rito \u00e0s ind\u00fastrias manufactureiras 2022 (Survey of Mozambican Manufacturing Firms 2022)","author":"Barletta G.","year":"2023"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/aepp\/ppq023"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0047279418000715"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.2014.1933"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_9_1","article-title":"Cash grants and firm recovery \u2013 an RCT following Cyclone Idai in Mozambique","author":"Berkel H.","year":"2021","journal-title":"AEA RCT Registry website."},{"key":"e_1_2_11_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.35188\/UNU-WIDER\/2021\/025-2"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijdrr.2024.105004"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_12_1","volume-title":"Inqu\u00e9rito \u00e0s ind\u00fastrias manufactureiras 2017 (Survey of Mozambican Manufacturing Firms 2017)","author":"Berkel H.","year":"2018"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.qref.2016.05.003"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.qref.2018.12.004"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/rode.12543"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_16_1","volume-title":"Companies in central Mozambique face US$145 million losses from Cyclone Idai","author":"Club of Mozambique","year":"2019"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_17_1","volume-title":"The Impact of Floods on Firms\u2019 Performance","author":"Coelli F.","year":"2014"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S1355770X11000350"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1465-7295.2007.00063.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1468-0297.2011.02475.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1596\/1813-9450-6009"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_22_1","series-title":"4. 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