{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,15]],"date-time":"2026-10-15T23:49:48Z","timestamp":1792108188707,"version":"4.4.0"},"reference-count":27,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"10","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,8,9]],"date-time":"2021-08-09T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1628467200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000265","name":"Medical Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000265","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000925","name":"National Health and Medical Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000925","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Diabet Med"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,10]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Objectives<\/jats:title><jats:p>To estimate 13\u00a0equations that predict clinically plausible risk factor time paths to inform the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Outcomes Model version 2 (UKPDS\u2010OM2).<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>Data from 5102 UKPDS participants from the 20\u2010year trial, and the 4031\u00a0survivors with 10\u00a0years further post\u2010trial follow\u2010up, were used to derive equations for the time paths of 13\u00a0clinical risk factors: HbA<jats:sub>1c<\/jats:sub>, systolic blood pressure, LDL\u2010cholesterol, HDL\u2010cholesterol, BMI, micro\u2010 or macro\u2010albuminuria, creatinine, heart rate, white blood cell count, haemoglobin, estimated glomerular filter rate<jats:styled-content>,<\/jats:styled-content> atrial fibrillation and peripheral vascular disease (PVD). The incidence of events and death predicted by the UKPDS\u2010OM2 when informed by the new risk factor equations was compared with the observed cumulative rates up to 25\u00a0years.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>The new equations were based on 24\u00a0years of follow\u2010up and up to 65,252 person\u2010years of data. Women were associated with higher values of all continuous risk factors except for haemoglobin. Older age and higher BMI at diagnosis were associated with higher rates of PVD (HR 1.06 and 1.02), atrial fibrillation (HR 1.10 and 1.08) and micro\u2010 or macro\u2010albuminuria (HR 1.01 and 1.18). Smoking was associated with higher rates of developing PVD (HR 2.38) and micro\u2010 and macro\u2010albuminuria (HR 1.39). The UKPDS\u2010OM2, informed by the new risk factor equations, predicted event rates for complications and death consistent with those observed.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title><jats:p>The new equations allow risk factor time paths beyond observed data, which should improve modelling of long\u2010term health outcomes for people with type 2 diabetes when using the UKPDS\u2010OM2 or other models.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/dme.14656","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,7,23]],"date-time":"2021-07-23T12:57:05Z","timestamp":1627045025000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":47,"title":["Estimating risk factor progression equations for the UKPDS Outcomes Model 2 (UKPDS 90)"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"38","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7870-6730","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jose","family":"Leal","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Health Economics Research Centre Nuffield Department of Population Health University of Oxford Oxford UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Maria","family":"Alva","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Massive Data Institute Georgetown University Washington DC USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Vanessa","family":"Gregory","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Diabetes Trials Unit Radcliffe Department of Medicine University of Oxford Oxford UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Alison","family":"Hayes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health Faculty of Medicine and Health University of Sydney Sydney 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