{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,12]],"date-time":"2026-05-12T23:48:12Z","timestamp":1778629692394,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":53,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"11","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,8,8]],"date-time":"2022-08-08T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1659916800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["dom-pubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Diabetes Obesity Metabolism"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2022,11]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Aim<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Early identification and prediction of incident heart failure (HF) is important because of severe morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to predict onset of HF among patients with diabetes.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>A time\u2010varying Cox model was derived from ACCORD clinical trial to predict the risk of incident HF, defined by hospitalization for HF (HHF). External validation was performed on patient\u2010level data from the Harmony Outcome trial and Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) study. The model was transformed into an integer\u2010based scoring algorithm for 10\u2010year risk evaluation. A stepwise algorithm identified and selected predictors from demographic characteristics, physical examination, laboratory results, medical history, medication and health care utilization, to develop a risk prediction model. The main outcome was incident HF, defined by HHF. The C statistic and Brier score were used to assess model performance.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>In total, 9649 patients with diabetes free of HF were used, with median follow\u2010up of 4\u2009years and 299 incident hospitalization of HF events. The model identified several predictors for the 10\u2010year HF incidence risk score \u2018DM\u2010CURE\u2019: socio\u2010Demographic [education, age at type 2 diabetes (T2DM) diagnosis], Metabolic (glycated haemoglobin, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, high\u2010density lipoproteins), diabetes\u2010related Complications (myocardial infarction, revascularization, cardiovascular medications, neuropathy, hypertension duration, albuminuria, urine albumin\u2010to\u2010creatinine ratio, End Stage Kidney Disease), and health care Utilization (all\u2010cause hospitalization, emergency room visits) for Risk Evaluation. Among them, the strongest impact factors for future HF were age at T2DM diagnosis, health care utilization and cardiovascular disease\u2010related variables. The model showed good discrimination (C statistic: 0.838, 95% CI: 0.821\u20100.855) and calibration (Brier score: 0.006, 95% CI: 0.006\u20100.007) in the ACCORD data and good performance in the validation data (Harmony: C statistic: 0.881, 95% CI: 0.863\u20100.899; CRIC: C statistic: 0.813, 95% CI: 0.794\u20100.833). The 10\u2010year risk of incident HF increased in a graded fashion, from \u22641% in quintile 1 (score \u226414), 1%\u20105% in quintile 2 (score 15\u201023), 5%\u201010% in quintile 3 (score 24\u201027), 10%\u201020% in quintile 4 (score 28\u201033) and \u226520% in quintile 5 (score &gt;33).<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The DM\u2010CURE model and score were useful for population risk stratification of incident HHF among patients with T2DM and can be easily applied in clinical practice.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/dom.14806","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,7,8]],"date-time":"2022-07-08T03:26:09Z","timestamp":1657250769000},"page":"2203-2211","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":16,"title":["Predicting incident heart failure among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: The\n                    <scp>DM\u2010CURE<\/scp>\n                    risk score"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"24","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7040-4287","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Yilu","family":"Lin","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Health Policy and Management, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine Tulane University  New Orleans Louisiana United States"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4088-546X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Hui","family":"Shao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Pharmaceutical Outcomes and Policy, College of Pharmacy University of Florida  Gainesville Florida United States"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7827-6766","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Lizheng","family":"Shi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Health Policy and Management, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine Tulane University  New Orleans Louisiana United States"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Amanda H.","family":"Anderson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine Tulane University  New Orleans Louisiana United States"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3381-7151","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Vivian","family":"Fonseca","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Medicine and Pharmacology, School of Medicine Tulane University  New Orleans Louisiana United States"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,8,8]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_7_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2337\/diacare.27.8.1879"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2337\/diacare.24.9.1614"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/dom.14074"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ejhf.679"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jval.2017.12.019"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.amjcard.2019.10.024"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1161\/CIRCULATIONAHA.112.120485"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1161\/CIRCIMAGING.116.005615"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pcad.2013.10.004"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa1504720"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa1812389"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2337\/dc20-0227"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1161\/CIRCULATIONAHA.114.014508"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_15_1","unstructured":"ACCORD Protocol.http:\/\/www.accordtrial.org\/docs\/Protocol%20All%20Chapters.pdf. 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