{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,19]],"date-time":"2026-10-19T04:41:21Z","timestamp":1792384881987,"version":"4.4.0"},"reference-count":37,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"11","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,9]],"date-time":"2026-08-09T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1786233600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,9]],"date-time":"2026-08-09T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1786233600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["81390540"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["81390540"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["82192900"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["82192900"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["82192901"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["82192901"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["82192904"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["82192904"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["91846303"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["91846303"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100012166","name":"National Key Research and Development Program of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["2016YFC0900500"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2016YFC0900500"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100012166","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["dom-pubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Diabetes Obesity Metabolism"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,11]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>To evaluate and recalibrate commonly used 10\u2010year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction models in two Chinese cohorts: the general population and adults with type 2 diabetes.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      We analysed data from the Wuzhong subcohort of the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) and the Jiangsu Biobank for the Prevention and Control of Diabetes (JBPCD). After excluding participants with baseline CVD, baseline diabetes in CKB or missing predictors, 42\u2009937 CKB participants and 14\u2009125 JBPCD participants were included. We evaluated CKB\u2010CVD, Globorisk, Framingham General CVD and WHO 2019 in both cohorts, and SCORE2\u2010Diabetes in JBPCD. Performance of original and recalibrated models was assessed by 10\u2010year inverse probability of censoring weighting (IPCW)\n                      <jats:italic>C<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u2010statistic, calibration measures including the expected\u2010to\u2010observed (E\/O) event ratio and Brier score. In JBPCD, overlap in high\u2010risk classification was examined using a 20% predicted 10\u2010year risk threshold.\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      During a median follow\u2010up of 11.96\u2009years in the general population cohort and 10.03\u2009years in the type 2 diabetes cohort, 3740 and 2794 ischemic heart disease or stroke events occurred, with 10\u2010year risks of 6.04% and 19.72%, respectively. Discrimination was higher in the general population cohort than in the type 2 diabetes cohort (\n                      <jats:italic>C<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u2010statistic 0.723\u20130.778 vs. 0.584\u20130.629). Original models were poorly calibrated, with systematic overprediction in the general population cohort (E\/O 1.47\u20133.78) and heterogeneous miscalibration in the type 2 diabetes cohort (E\/O 0.32\u20132.70). Recalibration markedly improved calibration and reduced Brier scores, with little change in discrimination. In the type 2 diabetes cohort, recalibrated CKB\u2010CVD classified 48.4% as high risk, with an observed 10\u2010year risk of 25.7%.\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Widely used 10\u2010year CVD risk models showed acceptable or modest discrimination but substantial miscalibration in Chinese populations, especially among adults with type 2 diabetes. Recalibration is essential before threshold\u2010based clinical or public\u2010health use.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/dom.71212","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,10]],"date-time":"2026-08-10T02:20:07Z","timestamp":1786328407000},"page":"9955-9965","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Validation and Comparison of 10\u2010Year Cardiovascular Risk Prediction Models in Two Chinese Prospective Cohorts: The General Population and Patients With Type 2 Diabetes"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"28","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9944-284X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Xikang","family":"Fan","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention  Nanjing 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China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jun","family":"Lv","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Peking University Center for Public Health and Epidemic Preparedness and Response  Beijing China"},{"name":"Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health Peking University  Beijing China"},{"name":"Key Laboratory of Epidemiology of Major Diseases Ministry of Education (Peking University)  Beijing China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Enchun","family":"Pan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Huai'an Center for Disease Control and Prevention  Huaian China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yan","family":"Lu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Non\u2010Communicable Chronic Disease Control and Prevention Suzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention  Suzhou 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