{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,8]],"date-time":"2026-10-08T04:49:28Z","timestamp":1791434968947,"version":"4.3.3"},"reference-count":48,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"11","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,1]],"date-time":"2026-09-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1788220800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,1]],"date-time":"2026-09-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1788220800000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001858","name":"VINNOVA","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["Dnr: 2022\u201000547"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["Dnr: 2022\u201000547"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001858","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100004359","name":"Vetenskapsr\u00e5det","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["Dnr: 2022\u201001529"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["Dnr: 2022\u201001529"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100004359","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001322","name":"South African Medical Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001322","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["dom-pubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Diabetes Obesity Metabolism"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,11]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Aims<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We evaluated overall and sex\u2010specific performance of established diabetes risk models for predicting incident dysglycaemia in African and European populations.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Materials and Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      We externally evaluated the African Diabetes Risk model, Finnish Diabetes Risk model, Epidemiological Study on the Insulin Resistance Syndrome model and the personal and clinical Framingham models. Evaluation was performed in three prospective cohorts: the Research on Obesity and Diabetes among African Migrants (RODAM\u2010Pros; migrant and non\u2010migrant Ghanaians;\n                      <jats:italic>n<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u2009=\u20091607), the Middle\u2010aged Soweto cohort (MASC; urban Black South Africans;\n                      <jats:italic>n<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u2009=\u2009515) and the V\u00e4sterbotten Intervention Programme (VIP; Sweden;\n                      <jats:italic>n<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u2009=\u20093044). Dysglycaemia was defined according to American Diabetes Association criteria. Discrimination (c\u2010statistic) and calibration were assessed before and after recalibration.\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Dysglycaemia developed in 17.7% of RODAM\u2010Pros participants, 35.0% of MASC participants and 27.5% of VIP participants, with median follow\u2010up of 6.7, 6.7 and 9.9\u2009years, respectively. All models demonstrated poor\u2010to\u2010modest discrimination (c\u2010statistic &lt;\u20090.7). Most models substantially underestimated risk. Recalibration eliminated systematic miscalibration and reduced calibration error to \u2264\u20092.3% in RODAM\u2010Pros and VIP and \u2264\u20093.4% in MASC. Performance varied by sex and cohort.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Existing diabetes risk prediction models can be applied to predict incident dysglycaemia in both Sub\u2010Saharan African and European populations, but only after recalibration to local risk levels.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/dom.71285","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,2]],"date-time":"2026-09-02T04:59:31Z","timestamp":1788325171000},"page":"10814-10826","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Evaluation of Diabetes Risk Models Applied to the Prediction of Incident Dysglycaemia in African and European Populations"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"28","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3488-7781","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Melony Fortuin\u2010de","family":"Smidt","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine Ume\u00e5 University  Ume\u00e5 Sweden"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Patrik","family":"Wennberg","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine Ume\u00e5 University  Ume\u00e5 Sweden"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hannah Maike","family":"Albers","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Hertz\u2010Chair Innovation for Planetary Health, Transdisciplinary Research Area \u201cTechnology and Innovation for Sustainable Futures\u201d and Center for Development Research (ZEF) University of Bonn  Bonn Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Charles","family":"Agyemang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public and Occupational Health, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, 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