{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,10]],"date-time":"2026-08-10T11:17:49Z","timestamp":1786360669709,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":30,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"11","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,5,29]],"date-time":"2021-05-29T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1622246400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Eur J Clin Investigation"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,11]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Background<\/jats:title><jats:p>Currently, we remain uncertain about which patients are at increased risk for recurrent pericarditis. We developed a risk score for pericarditis recurrence in patients with acute pericarditis.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Materials and methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>We prospectively recruited 262 patients with a first episode of acute pericarditis. Baseline patients\u2019 demographics, clinical, imaging and laboratory data were collected. Patients were followed up for a median of 51\u00a0months (interquartile range 21\u201071) for recurrence. Variables with &lt;10% missingness were entered into multivariable logistic regression models with stepwise elimination to explore independent predictors of recurrence. The final model performance was assessed by the c\u2010index whereas model's calibration and optimism\u2010corrected c\u2010index were evaluated after 10\u2010fold cross\u2010validation.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>We identified six independent predictors for pericarditis recurrence, that is age, effusion size, platelet count (negative predictors) and reduced inferior vena cava collapse, in\u2010hospital use of corticosteroids and heart rate (positive predictors). The final model had good performance for recurrence, c\u2010index 0.783 (95% CI 0.725\u20100.842), while the optimism\u2010corrected c\u2010index after cross\u2010validation was 0.752. Based on these variables, we developed a risk score point system for recurrence (0\u201022 points) with equally good performance (c\u2010index 0.740, 95% CI 0.677\u20100.803). Patients with a low score (0\u20107 points) had 21.3% risk for recurrence, while those with high score (\u226512 points) had a 69.8% risk for recurrence. The score was predictive of recurrence among most patient subgroups.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title><jats:p>A simple risk score point system based on 6 variables can be used to predict the individualized risk for pericarditis recurrence among patients with a first episode of acute pericarditis.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/eci.13602","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,5,29]],"date-time":"2021-05-29T12:42:30Z","timestamp":1622292150000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":25,"title":["A risk score for pericarditis recurrence"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"51","author":[{"given":"Emilia","family":"Lazarou","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"First Cardiology Department School of Medicine Hippokration General Hospital National and Kapodistrian University of Athens Athens 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