{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,16]],"date-time":"2026-10-16T06:22:10Z","timestamp":1792131730197,"version":"4.4.0"},"reference-count":94,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"10","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,7,26]],"date-time":"2021-07-26T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1627257600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Ecology Letters"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,10]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    Novel pathogen introduction can have drastic consequences for naive host populations, and outcomes can be difficult to predict. Evolutionary rescue (ER) provides a foundation for understanding whether hosts are driven to extinction or survive via adaptation. Currently, patterns of host population dynamics alongside evidence of adaptation are used to infer ER. However, the gap between established ER theory and complexity inherent in natural systems makes interpreting empirical patterns difficult because they can be confounded with ecological drivers of survival under current theory. To bridge this gap, we expand ER theory to include biological selective agents, such as pathogens. We find birth processes to be more important than previously theorised in determining ER potential. We employ a novel framework evaluating ER potential within natural systems and gain ability to identify system characteristics that make ER possible. Identifying these characteristics allows a shift from retrospective observation to a predictive mindset, and our findings suggest that ER occurrence may be more limited than previously thought. We use the plague system of\n                    <jats:italic>Yersinia pestis<\/jats:italic>\n                    infecting\n                    <jats:italic>Cynomys ludovicianus<\/jats:italic>\n                    (black\u2010tailed prairie dogs) and\n                    <jats:italic>Spermophilus beecheyi<\/jats:italic>\n                    (California ground squirrels) as a case study.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/ele.13845","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,7,26]],"date-time":"2021-07-26T12:32:34Z","timestamp":1627302754000},"page":"2238-2255","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":17,"title":["Host adaptation to novel pathogen introduction: Predicting conditions that promote evolutionary rescue"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"24","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0568-6702","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Benjamin D.","family":"Golas","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Colorado State University Fort Collins CO USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Brandon","family":"Goodell","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Clemson University Clemson SC USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Colleen T.","family":"Webb","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Colorado State University Fort Collins CO USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,7,26]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_9_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspa.2012.0500"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/eva.12221"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1093\/oso\/9780198545996.001.0001","volume-title":"Infectious diseases of humans: dynamics and control","author":"Anderson R.M.","year":"1991"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_5_1","first-page":"383","article-title":"One health\u2010attaining optimal health for people, animals, and the environment","volume":"5","author":"Atlas R.","year":"2010","journal-title":"Microbe"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_6_1","first-page":"28","article-title":"A review of plague and its relevance to prairie dog populations and the black\u2010footed ferret. Management of Prairie dog complexes for the reintroduction of the black\u2010footed ferret","volume":"13","author":"Barnes A.M.","year":"1993","journal-title":"US Fish and Wildlife Service Biological Report"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1142\/2284"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1461-0248.2010.01490.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2012.0080"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1461-0248.2009.01350.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1203105"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1644\/1545-1542(2001)082<0906:IOIPON>2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2003.2655"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/303181"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0022498"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_16_1","volume-title":"The mathematical theory of quantitative genetics","author":"Bulmer M.G.","year":"1980"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1558-5646.1995.tb05967.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Campitelli E.(2020)Multiple fill and colour scales in \u2018ggplot2'. R package version 0.4.3.","DOI":"10.32614\/CRAN.package.ggnewscale"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tree.2014.06.005"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_20_1","unstructured":"Carnell R.(2019)lhs: Latin hypercube samples. R package version 1.0.1."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_21_1","unstructured":"Corporation M.&Weston S.(2018)doParallel: Foreach Parallel Adaptor for the \u2018parallel\u2019 Package. R package version 1.0.14."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tvjl.2006.10.005"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1205750110"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1644\/1545-1542(2001)082<0894:ICOSPI>2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_25_1","first-page":"443","article-title":"Emerging infectious diseases of wildlife\u2010 threats to biodiversity and human health","volume":"287","author":"Daszak Peter A.","year":"2000","journal-title":"Science's Compass"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/eap.1792"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10021-002-0151-3"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/tpbi.2000.1451"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1414894112"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2011.05.021"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ele.12580"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2000.1100"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_33_1","unstructured":"Garnier S.(2018)viridis: Default color maps from \u2018matplotlib'. R package version 0.5.1."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ele.12893"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_35_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/mec.15813"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_36_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1021\/j100540a008"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_37_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1558-5646.1995.tb05971.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_38_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2012.0093"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_39_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2012.0079"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_40_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1890\/1051-0761(1998)008[0975:EOINIP]2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_41_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/cobi.12143"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_42_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1890\/0012-9658(2006)87[2356:TFOGFM]2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_43_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511542022.018"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_44_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.1970.19.1015"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_45_1","unstructured":"Iooss B. Janon A. Pujol G.(2018)Sensitivity: global sensitivity analysis of model outputs. R package version 1.15.2."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_46_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1752-4571.2009.00112.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_47_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspa.1927.0118"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_48_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/eva.12127"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_49_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1890\/03\u20108013"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_50_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/285580"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_51_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tree.2013.09.009"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_52_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1890\/06-1999.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_53_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2003.2327"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_54_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature11879"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_55_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/jeb.12551"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_56_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2015.0465"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_57_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tree.2005.07.004"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_58_1","unstructured":"Lush J.L.(1937)Animal breeding plans. ames."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_59_1","unstructured":"Lynch M.&Lande R.(1993).Evolution and extinction in response to environmental change pp.234\u2013250in. Kareiva PM Kingsolver JG Huey RB. Sinauer Sunderland MA."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_60_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1890\/1051-0761(2000)010[0689:BICEGC]2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_61_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2008.04.011"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_62_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid2402.171065"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_63_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2012.0088"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_64_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/cobi.12485"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_65_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1525\/bio.2012.62.12.6"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_66_1","unstructured":"McArthur R.&Wilson E.(1967)The theory of island biogeography princeton University Press princeton.New Jersey."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_67_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Meschiari S.(2015)latex2exp: Use LaTeX Expressions in Plots. R package version 0.4.0.","DOI":"10.32614\/CRAN.package.latex2exp"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_68_1","unstructured":"Microsoft & Weston S.(2017)foreach: Provides Foreach Looping Construct for R. R package version 1.4.4."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_69_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/589460"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_70_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7589\/0090-3558-42.1.74"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_71_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1523-1739.2007.00776.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_72_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1420-9101.2008.01596.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_73_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nrmicro.2017.45"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_74_1","volume-title":"R: a language and environment for statistical computing","author":"R Core Team","year":"2018"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_75_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/eva.12046"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_76_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0033567"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_77_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.18637\/jss.v021.i12"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_78_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1461-0248.2012.01836.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_79_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7589\/0090-3558-44.4.930"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_80_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1089\/vbz.2011.0602"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_81_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Roh T.(2018)fitur: fit univariate distributions. R package version 0.6.1.","DOI":"10.32614\/CRAN.package.fitur"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_82_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1420-9101.2010.01945.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_83_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1523\u20101739.2006.00524.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_84_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1128\/IAI.00488-16"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_85_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0106628"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_86_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10393-017-1236-y"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_87_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1128\/IAI.00488-08"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_88_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/eva.12168"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_89_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2012.0090"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_90_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0510090103"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_91_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Wickham H.(2017)tidyverse: Easily Install and Load the \u2018Tidyverse'. R package version 1.2.1.","DOI":"10.32614\/CRAN.package.tidyverse"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_92_1","unstructured":"Wilke C.O.(2019)cowplot: streamlined plot theme and plot annotations for \u2018ggplot2'. R package version 0.9.4."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_93_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/140.4.618"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_94_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.1999.0673"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_95_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.prevetmed.2010.07.003"}],"container-title":["Ecology Letters"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/ele.13845","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1111\/ele.13845","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/ele.13845","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,4]],"date-time":"2024-09-04T22:39:02Z","timestamp":1725489542000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/ele.13845"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Pejman","family":"Rohani","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"editor"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,7,26]]},"references-count":94,"journal-issue":{"issue":"10","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,10]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1111\/ele.13845"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/ele.13845","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{"has-review":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1111\/ELE.13845\/v3\/response1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1111\/ELE.13845\/v2\/decision1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1111\/ELE.13845\/v1\/review2","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1111\/ELE.13845\/v1\/review1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1111\/ELE.13845\/v2\/review1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1111\/ELE.13845\/v2\/review3","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1111\/ELE.13845\/v2\/review2","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1111\/ELE.13845\/v2\/response1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1111\/ELE.13845\/v1\/decision1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1111\/ELE.13845\/v3\/decision1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1111\/ELE.13845\/v1\/review3","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["1461-023X","1461-0248"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1461-023X","type":"print"},{"value":"1461-0248","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,7,26]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2020-11-05","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2021-06-09","order":1,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2021-07-26","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}