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Risk factors have been identified, but considerable variability in who develops <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">PTS<\/jats:styled-content> remains. Existing <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">PTS<\/jats:styled-content> prognostic models are not widely adopted for clinical use and do not reflect current trends in injury, diagnosis, or care. We aimed to develop and internally validate preliminary prognostic regression models to predict <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">PTS<\/jats:styled-content> during acute care hospitalization, and at year 1 and year 2 postinjury.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>Prognostic models predicting <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">PTS<\/jats:styled-content> during acute care hospitalization and year 1 and year 2 post\u2010injury were developed using a recent (2011\u20132014) cohort from the <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">TBI<\/jats:styled-content> Model Systems National Database. Potential <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">PTS<\/jats:styled-content> predictors were selected based on previous literature and biologic plausibility. Bivariable logistic regression identified variables with a p\u2010value &lt; 0.20 that were used to fit initial prognostic models. Multivariable logistic regression modeling with backward\u2010stepwise elimination was used to determine reduced prognostic models and to internally validate using 1,000 bootstrap samples. Fit statistics were calculated, correcting for overfitting (optimism).<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>The prognostic models identified sex, craniotomy, contusion load, and pre\u2010injury limitation in learning\/remembering\/concentrating as significant <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">PTS<\/jats:styled-content> predictors during acute hospitalization. Significant predictors of <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">PTS<\/jats:styled-content> at year 1 were subdural hematoma (<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">SDH<\/jats:styled-content>), contusion load, craniotomy, craniectomy, seizure during acute hospitalization, duration of posttraumatic amnesia, preinjury mental health treatment\/psychiatric hospitalization, and preinjury incarceration. Year 2 significant predictors were similar to those of year 1: <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">SDH<\/jats:styled-content>, intraparenchymal fragment, craniotomy, craniectomy, seizure during acute hospitalization, and preinjury incarceration. Corrected concordance (C) statistics were 0.599, 0.747, and 0.716 for acute hospitalization, year 1, and year 2 models, respectively.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Significance<\/jats:title><jats:p>The prognostic model for <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">PTS<\/jats:styled-content> during acute hospitalization did not discriminate well. Year 1 and year 2 models showed fair to good predictive validity for <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">PTS<\/jats:styled-content>. Cranial surgery, although medically necessary, requires ongoing research regarding potential benefits of increased monitoring for signs of epileptogenesis, <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">PTS<\/jats:styled-content> prophylaxis, and\/or rehabilitation\/social support. Future studies should externally validate models and determine clinical utility.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/epi.13470","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2016,7,19]],"date-time":"2016-07-19T12:23:34Z","timestamp":1468931014000},"page":"1503-1514","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":44,"title":["Prognostic models for predicting posttraumatic seizures during acute hospitalization, and at 1 and 2 years following traumatic brain injury"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"57","author":[{"given":"Anne C.","family":"Ritter","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Physical Medicine &amp; Rehabilitation University of Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Pennsylvania U.S.A"},{"name":"Department of Epidemiology University of Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Pennsylvania U.S.A"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Amy K.","family":"Wagner","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology University of Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Pennsylvania U.S.A"},{"name":"Safar Center for Resuscitation Research University of Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Pennsylvania U.S.A"},{"name":"Department of Neuroscience University of Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Pennsylvania U.S.A"},{"name":"Center for Neuroscience at University of Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Pennsylvania U.S.A"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jerzy P.","family":"Szaflarski","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Neurology University of Alabama at Birmingham Epilepsy Center University of Alabama Birmingham Alabama U.S.A"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Maria M.","family":"Brooks","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Physical Medicine &amp; Rehabilitation University of Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Pennsylvania U.S.A"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ross D.","family":"Zafonte","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Spaulding Rehabilitation Hospital Harvard Medical School Boston Massachusetts U.S.A"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mary Jo V.","family":"Pugh","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"South Texas Veterans Health Care System Polytrauma Rehabilitation Center San Antonio Texas U.S.A"},{"name":"Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics University of Texas Health Science Center San Antonio San Antonio Texas U.S.A"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Anthony","family":"Fabio","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Physical Medicine &amp; Rehabilitation University of Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Pennsylvania U.S.A"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Flora M.","family":"Hammond","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Carolinas Rehabilitation Charlotte North Carolina U.S.A"},{"name":"Indiana University School of Medicine Indianapolis Indiana U.S.A"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Laura E.","family":"Dreer","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Departments of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation and Ophthalmology University of Alabama Birmingham Alabama U.S.A"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tamara","family":"Bushnik","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Rusk Rehabilitation New York University School of Medicine New York New York U.S.A"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"William C.","family":"Walker","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Physical Medicine &amp; 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