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We used field and modeling approaches to predict the risk of occurrence of <jats:italic><jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">B<\/jats:styled-content>orrelia burgdorferi<\/jats:italic>, the bacteria causing Lyme disease in North America. We combined climatic and landscape variables to model the current and future (2050) potential distribution of the black\u2010legged tick and the white\u2010footed mouse at the northeastern range limit of Lyme disease and estimated a risk index for <jats:italic>B.\u00a0burgdorferi<\/jats:italic> from these distributions. The risk index was mostly constrained by the distribution of the white\u2010footed mouse, driven by winter climatic conditions. The next factor contributing to the risk index was the distribution of the black\u2010legged tick, estimated from the temperature. Landscape variables such as forest habitat and connectivity contributed little to the risk index. We predict a further northern expansion of <jats:italic>B.\u00a0burgdorferi<\/jats:italic> of approximately 250\u2013500\u00a0km by 2050 \u2013 a rate of 3.5\u201311\u00a0km per year \u2013 and identify areas of rapid rise in the risk of occurrence of <jats:italic>B.\u00a0burgdorferi<\/jats:italic>. Our results will improve understanding of the spread of Lyme disease and inform management strategies at the most northern limit of its distribution.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/eva.12165","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2014,5,7]],"date-time":"2014-05-07T09:20:54Z","timestamp":1399454454000},"page":"750-764","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":154,"title":["Climate change and habitat fragmentation drive the occurrence of <i><scp>B<\/scp>orrelia burgdorferi<\/i>, the agent of Lyme disease, at the northeastern limit of its distribution"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"7","author":[{"given":"Julie A.","family":"Simon","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Redpath Museum McGill University Montreal QC Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Robby R.","family":"Marrotte","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Redpath Museum McGill University Montreal QC Canada"},{"name":"Department of Biology McGill University Montreal QC Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nathalie","family":"Desrosiers","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Minist\u00e8re du D\u00e9veloppement Durable, de l'Environnement, de la Faune et des Parcs du Qu\u00e9bec City QC Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jessica","family":"Fiset","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"D\u00e9partement des Sciences Biologiques Universit\u00e9 de Montr\u00e9al Montr\u00e9al QC Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jorge","family":"Gaitan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Redpath Museum McGill University Montreal QC Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Andrew","family":"Gonzalez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biology McGill University Montreal QC Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jules K.","family":"Koffi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Zoonoses Division Centre for Food\u2010Borne, Environmental &amp; 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